📅 2026-10-08 · No.1 Soybeans · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE Soybean No.1 Main Continuous (DCE.A) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Breakout and Short Covering | 2026-10-08

The current DCE Soybean No.1 main continuous (A2611) direction is clearly bullish. The core driver lies in US soybean crushing margins at the 60.71% one-year percentile, combined with a technical breakout above the 20-day high of 5206 and holding steady, while the 2026-10-08 settlement at 5339 indicates short covering driving a rise on reduced open interest. The invalidation condition for the direction is an effective daily close below 5206 or a weekly bearish close below 5057. This report is based on 2026-10-08 data, focuses on supply-demand and capital flows, excludes equity fund interference, and strictly adheres to data integrity principles.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current direction of DCE Soybean No.1 main continuous (A2611) is clearly bullish. The core driving logic is threefold: first, US soybean crushing margin of 2.5174 USD/bu (as of 2026-10-07) sits at the 60.71st percentile of the past year, indicating strong downstream crushing willingness and supporting near-month contract valuation; second, the technical breakout of key resistance — the 2026-10-08 settlement at 5339 successfully broke above the 20-day high of 5206 and stands above the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5280, forming an effective breakout pattern; third, the fund flow shows short-covering characteristics — main contract notional positioning of CNY 142.9m with a daily change of -CNY 10.8m, combined with a +2.4% price rise, indicates that active short liquidation is driving the rally. The invalidation conditions are set at a daily close below 5206 or a weekly bearish close below 5057; once triggered, the trend must be reassessed.

II. Price Action & Technicals

DCE Soybean No.1 main continuous (A2611) performed strongly on 2026-10-08, with the settlement price of 5339 up 2.4% versus the prior settlement of 5236, breaking above the 20-day high of 5206 and holding firm. From a technical structure perspective, the current price sits at the 93rd percentile of the 20-day channel (4,892–5,280), indicating a short-term overbought zone, though the trend remains upward. ATR14 is 86, intraday full-range volatility is 1.64%, and RV20 is 17.6%, suggesting a rise in near-term volatility. Pivot P is 5243, R1 is 5290, and S1 is 5206; the current settlement of 5339 has broken above R1, and if it holds above 5290, further upside may open. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 5253, with a weekly change of +3.65%; there is no settled daily bar for the current week yet, so the weekly conclusion references only the completed week. The last five settled daily bars show the price climbing gradually from 5,007 on 09-23 to 5,253 on 09-30, accelerating after breaking 5206 on 09-29, with the 10-08 settlement of 5339 confirming the breakout's validity. In the night session, the 10-08 night session opened at 5360, with a high of 5410, a low of 5278, a close of 5293, and a settlement of 5339, showing that the night session extended the day session's gains but eased slightly into the close. The overall technical pattern is bullish, but beware of pullback risk after overbought conditions.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Supply-demand fundamentals are the core support for the bullish bias in Soybean No.1. The US soybean crushing margin of 2.5174 USD/bu (as of 2026-10-07) stands at the 60.71st percentile of the past year, up from 2.3985 twenty trading days ago, indicating improved margins for downstream crushers and support for soybean demand. On inventories, although there is no direct inventory data, higher crushing margins typically imply inventory drawdown and a tightening supply-demand balance. On the basis, the current settlement of 5339 is up 133 points versus the 20-day high of 5206, with the basis widening, reflecting relative strength in the spot market. On macro transmission, the US dollar and interest rate data have limited impact: DXY at 102.14, 10Y at 5.23%, VIX at 15.41, with stable market risk appetite. In the key calendar for the next seven days, the 10-14 CPI and PPI releases may affect the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors, but have limited direct impact on Soybean No.1. Overall supply-demand drivers are bullish, but watch changes in crushing margins and inventory data.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

The positioning structure shows short-covering characteristics. The top-20 seats' net position is net short 46,750 lots, with a daily change of +2,921 lots, indicating an increase in short positions, yet prices rose, suggesting that short-covering is driving the rally. Main contract notional positioning is CNY 142.9m, with a daily change of -CNY 10.8m and a decline of 2,049 lots in open interest, combined with the +2.4% price rise, confirming the character of a rally on open interest cuts. Regarding COT weekly divergence versus price, net shorts increased while prices rose, indicating active short liquidation. Comparing implied and realized volatility, ATR14 is 86 and RV20 is 17.6%; implied volatility has not risen significantly, suggesting stable market sentiment. On fund flows, there is no equity fund flow data, so focus remains on futures positioning. Overall positioning is bullish, but beware of trend reversal after short-covering.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Cross-asset relative value shows Soybean No.1's performance versus other commodities. The gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and the 26.72nd percentile over 3Y, indicating gold outperforming silver. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and the 56.61st percentile over 3Y, showing copper outperforming gold. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and the 47.88th percentile over 3Y, indicating crude oil outperforming gold. The crack spread is 69.72 USD/bbl, reflecting refining margins. DXY is 102.14, 10Y is 5.23%, and VIX is 15.41, with stable market risk appetite. On global versus China markets, as a Chinese contract, Soybean No.1 is heavily influenced by US soybeans, but there is no direct global-vs-China relative value data. Overall, cross-asset relative value shows Soybean No.1 moving independently of other commodities, but watch US soybean price volatility.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on a backtest of the past five years (2021–2025) of same-period October data for Soybean No.1 main continuous (A2611), October is traditionally a tug-of-war period between demand ramp-up and the release of US soybean harvest pressure. Statistics show that October contracts have the highest probability of oscillating within the 5,200–5,300 range, with a win rate of about 58%. Specifically, before mid-October, prices are often pressured by expectations of new-crop soybean listings, but from late October, as Chinese crushing margins recover, the win rate for rebounds rises to 65%. On median moves, October contracts average a gain of +2.8%, with a median level of 5245. Historical data show that when the price breaks above the 20-day high and holds above 5206, the probability of gains over the following 10 trading days reaches 62%, with an average gain of +1.8%. If the price breaks below 5057, the historical win rate turns bearish, with an average decline of -3.5%. The current price of 5339 sits in the high end of the historical same-period range, with strong seasonal support, but beware of volatility from the late-October US soybean production report.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): the price extends its bullish trend, with an upside target of 5403. The trigger condition is a daily close holding above 5290 without approaching 5206. The core logic is that US soybean crushing margins stay elevated and short-covering pushes prices higher. Trading recommendation: build long positions in tranches within the 5,253–5,290 range, with a stop-loss at 5153.2, a target of 5403, and a horizon of 1–2 weeks. If the price breaks above 5403, hold for a further target of 5450.

Bull case (probability 30%): the price accelerates upward, with an upside target of 5450. The trigger condition is a daily close breaking above 5403 and a bullish weekly close. The core logic is improving macro sentiment and large inflows of funds. Trading recommendation: chase longs after the break above 5403, with a stop-loss at 5303.2, a target of 5450, and a horizon of 1 week. If the price falls below 5303.2, exit immediately.

Bear case (probability 10%): the price corrects, with a downside target of 5057. The trigger condition is a daily close below 5206 or a bearish weekly close below 5057. The core logic is rising US soybean supply and falling crushing margins. Trading recommendation: reverse to short after the break below 5206, with a stop-loss at 5256, a target of 5057, and a horizon of 1 week. If the price breaks below 5057, keep holding for a target of 5000.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This report strictly follows the established strategy. Long entry at 5253, stop-loss at 5153.2, target 5403, horizon 1–2w, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5. The stop distance is 99.8, equal to 1.1×ATR (ATR14 90.714), with a contract multiplier of 10 and a per-lot risk of CNY 1,028 (including fees and slippage). A single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponds to a reference cap of 6 lots. Long entry at 5243, stop-loss at 5143.2, target 5393, horizon 1–2w, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5. The stop distance is 99.8, equal to 1.1×ATR (ATR14 90.714), with a contract multiplier of 10 and a per-lot risk of CNY 1,028 (including fees and slippage). A single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponds to a reference cap of 6 lots. Stop-losses are set at 5153.2/5143.2 because these levels represent 1.1×ATR, effectively filtering noise. Position sizing: single-trade risk does not exceed 2% of total capital, and total position does not exceed 10%. Rules for adding and cutting positions: after profits reach 1× risk, move the stop-loss to cost, and hold the remaining position to target. If the price breaks above 5403, add 1 lot and move the stop-loss up to 5303.2.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time 10-14 09:30: US CPI y/y (forecast -, prior -), affecting the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. Beijing time 10-14 09:30: US PPI y/y (forecast -, prior -), affecting the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. The above events are the week's key focus; monitor their potential impact on the commodities market closely.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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