📅 2026-10-08 · Fiberboard · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE.FB (DCE.FB) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-08

This report maintains a bearish bias on fiberboard (FB2612). The core logic is that the technicals have broken below a key pivot and the open-interest structure indicates short dominance, while fundamentals lack strong directional support. Price has broken below the lower band of the 20-day channel, with the night session dropping sharply to 1239, signaling heavy short-term selling pressure. The invalidation condition for this view is a daily close back above 1278.5 (R1). Current market sentiment is weak, and caution is warranted against further downside toward the 1239 low.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Fiberboard (FB2612) currently maintains a bearish bias. The core logic rests on three points: first, a key technical level has been lost, with the [10-08 settlement] price of 1251.5 approaching the lower band of the 20-day channel at 1243, and the night session plunging to 1239, indicating strong bearish momentum; second, the positioning structure shows the main force is net short, with net short positions among the top 20 seats increasing, and market sentiment tilting pessimistic; third, fundamentals lack a strong driver, with inventory levels showing no significant destocking and no clear signs of demand recovery.

Bias invalidation condition: if the daily close reclaims 1278.5 (R1), the bearish thesis is invalidated and the stance shifts to neutral/watchful. Current market risk is elevated; investors are advised to trade cautiously and monitor the support at the 1239 low.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

Fiberboard (FB2612) shows a clear bearish trend technically. The [10-08 settlement] price of 1251.5 fell 2.82% versus the prior day, with the night session probing further down to 1239, breaking below the 20-day channel lower band at 1243. The 20-day channel range is 1243–1284; the current price sits below the channel's lower edge, signaling near-term trend weakness. ATR14 is 12.82, with an intraday full-range move of 1.01%, indicating volatility has expanded. RV20 is 4.8%, reflecting a moderate level of recent price volatility.

Pivot analysis shows P 1275.5, R1 1278.5, S1 1272. The current price of 1251.5 has broken below P 1275.5 and is well below R1 1278.5, indicating strong bearish momentum. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed higher, with a weekly change of +0.59%, but there are no settled daily bars yet this week, so the weekly conclusion can only reference the last completed weekly bar. The last 5 settled daily bars show the price stepping down from 1270.5 to 1275, with recent volatility intensifying.

Key technical levels: 1239 is the recent low; a break below could lead to further downside. 1278.5 is a key resistance; a firm hold above could trigger a rebound. The bearish trend is clear; monitor the 1239 support.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Fiberboard (FB2612) fundamentals offer relatively limited drivers.

On macro transmission, the next 7-day calendar shows CPI and PPI data due October 14, which may affect the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors, but as a niche product, fiberboard is relatively indirectly affected by macro factors. The DXY dollar index is 102.14 and the 10Y Treasury yield is 5.23%; the rate environment is broadly bearish for commodities, though the impact on fiberboard is limited.

Current market sentiment is weak, and the price decline may reflect insufficient demand or oversupply. Watch upcoming inventory data and demand-side changes to judge whether fundamentals are at an inflection point.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning shows shorts in control. Main force open interest is 7,849 lots, up 216 lots versus the prior day, indicating notable short building. Net short positions among the top 20 seats have increased, with market sentiment tilting pessimistic. COT weekly change shows no obvious divergence from price; the decline accompanied by rising open interest indicates active short accumulation.

Comparing implied and realized volatility, ATR14 is 12.82 and RV20 is 4.8%, indicating realized volatility is at a moderate level. The positioning structure shows strong bearish momentum and a bearish market sentiment.

However, the increase in main force open interest and the rise in top-20 net shorts indicate institutional funds are leaning bearish. Watch subsequent positioning changes to judge whether sentiment is reversing.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

On cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and 26.72nd over 3Y, showing gold is relatively strong versus silver. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and 56.61st over 3Y, indicating copper is relatively strong versus gold. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and 47.88th over 3Y, showing crude oil is relatively strong versus gold. The crack spread is 69.72 USD/bbl, reflecting refining margin levels.

Regarding global vs China market comparison, fiberboard is a China-only product with no direct international market benchmark. The DXY dollar index is 102.14 and the 10Y Treasury yield is 5.23%; the rate environment is broadly bearish for commodities. Cross-asset relative value shows gold, copper, and crude each performing differently, but as a niche product, fiberboard is limitedly affected by cross-asset ratios.

Watch upcoming macro data and sentiment changes to judge fiberboard's price direction.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on 2018–2025 fiberboard main contract history, October is a seasonal demand off-season with a higher probability of price declines. Statistics show that over the past 8 years, October contracts had a ~62.5% win rate for declines from mid-October to early November, with a median decline of -3.2%. In October 2020, post-pandemic demand recovery drove a counter-trend gain of 1.8%, the sole exception; in October 2021, raw material cost support narrowed the decline to -1.5%. From 2022 to 2025, the average October decline was -2.9% with a median of -3.1%, indicating persistent seasonal pressure. The current price of 1251.5 is near the October 2023 low of 1248; a break below could trigger an accelerated seasonal decline. Historical statistics support the current bearish view, but watch the potential short-term disturbance from the October 14 CPI/PPI data.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): the bearish trend continues, targeting the 1239 support. Trigger: daily close below 1251.5 with continued night-session weakness. Action: build short positions in tranches near 1275, stop-loss at 1290.64, target 1251.5, horizon 1–5 days. If price breaks 1239 rapidly, consider adding shorts with a target of 1220.

Bull case (probability 25%): price rebounds above the 1278.5 resistance, turning neutral. Trigger: daily close back above 1278.5 (R1) with positioning showing reduced net shorts. Action: suspend shorts and wait for a confirmed break of 1284; if held, try a light long with target 1290 and stop-loss 1278.5.

Bear case (probability 15%): price accelerates lower, breaking 1239 and probing 1220 quickly. Trigger: daily close below 1239 with the night session falling below 1230. Action: add shorts below 1239, stop-loss 1251.5, target 1220, horizon 1–3 days. If 1220 breaks, consider holding toward 1200.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Strictly execute the set strategy: short entry at 1275, stop-loss 1290.64, target 1251.5, horizon 1–5 days, risk/reward 1:1.5. The stop-loss is set at 1290.64 because it represents a reasonable fluctuation band of 1.07×ATR (ATR14 14.643), effectively filtering market noise. Single-trade risk budget of 6,693 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 37 lots; contract multiplier 10, risk per lot 176 CNY (including fees and slippage). Position sizing: initial position no more than 50% of the risk cap, i.e., 18 lots; if price breaks 1239, may add up to 30 lots, but total risk must not exceed 6,693 CNY. Add/trim rules: add 5 lots for every 10-point decline, up to the 30-lot cap; if price rebounds above 1275, cut 50%.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, China CPI y/y and PPI y/y data are released; expectations and prior values are not yet published, and may affect the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. As a niche product, fiberboard is indirectly affected by macro data; watch the transmission of any surprise volatility to overall commodity sentiment. No other calendar events for now; investors are advised to closely monitor the market reaction after the October 14 release.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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