📅 2026-10-08 · Coking Coal · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE Coking Coal Continuous (DCE.JM) In-Depth Analysis | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-08

The current direction of DCE Coking Coal Continuous (DCE.JM) is clearly bullish, with the core basis being a strong price breakout above a key resistance level accompanied by capital inflows. As of the close on 2026-10-08, the main contract JM2701 settled at 1476 yuan/ton, up 2.07% versus the previous trading day's settlement price, decisively holding above the 20-day moving average. Technically, price broke above pivot R1 (1460.67) while the 5-day decline narrowed, signaling exhaustion of bearish momentum. Fundamentally, although inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, expectations of winter restocking by downstream steel mills, combined with potential macro policy tailwinds, support a valuation repair in the black complex. The invalidation condition for the bullish bias is an effective daily close below the key support level of 1441, at which point the trend would need to be reassessed.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The DCE Coking Coal main continuous contract (DCE.JM) shows a clearly bullish bias. Based on the 2026-10-08 close, the main contract JM2701 settled at CNY 1,476/t, up 2.07% versus the previous trading day's settlement price, successfully breaking above the 20-day moving average and the pivot R1 resistance level, with the technical pattern exhibiting strong reversal characteristics. The core drivers are threefold: first, in terms of price structure, the lower bound of the 20-day channel at CNY 1,433/t provided effective support, and the 5-day decline narrowed from -4.58% to the current rebound, indicating the release of short-term oversold repair demand; second, positioning data show that while main-contract notional open interest fell CNY 1.412bn on the day, the top-20 seats held a net long of 14,399 lots, indicating that industrial capital maintained long exposure at key levels, with short covering driving prices higher; third, fundamentals show inventories at a five-year seasonal low, and with winter restocking expectations approaching, supply-demand mismatch risk supports valuation repair. The invalidation condition is set at an effective daily close below the key support of 1,441; if breached, the breakout is deemed to have failed and the trend may revert to range-bound downside.

II. Price Action & Technicals

As of the 2026-10-08 close, the DCE Coking Coal main continuous contract (DCE.JM) main contract JM2701 recorded CNY 1,476/t, up 2.07% versus the previous trading day's settlement price of CNY 1,449/t. From a technical structure perspective, price has broken above the 20-day moving average (CNY 1,433/t) and pivot R1 (CNY 1,460.67/t), holding firmly above key resistance. The 20-day channel range is CNY 1,433–1,763.5/t, with the current price at the 4.8% position of the channel, indicating entry into an ascending channel after short-term oversold repair. ATR14 stands at CNY 51.93/t, with an intraday full range of 3.58%, suggesting rising market activity. The 5-day decline narrowed from -4.58%, while the 20-day decline stands at -14.46%, indicating strengthening short-term rebound momentum within a longer-term downtrend. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 1,449/t, with a weekly change of -3.98%; there are no settled daily lines for the current week yet, so the weekly conclusion references only the completed weekly bar. The current price sits above pivot P (CNY 1,446.83/t); R1 (CNY 1,460.67/t) has been broken, while S1 (CNY 1,435.17/t) forms support below. If price holds firmly above CNY 1,460.67/t, it may test the 20-day high of CNY 1,763.5/t. In the night session, prices continued to rise, indicating sustained bullish sentiment.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Coking coal fundamentals present a supply-demand mismatch, with low inventories and winter restocking expectations forming the core support. As of 2026-10-08, coking coal inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, indicating continued tightness on the supply side. Downstream steel mills' winter restocking expectations are heating up, and demand is expected to see seasonal replenishment in the fourth quarter. On the basis side, spot prices remain relatively firm and the futures discount has narrowed, reflecting market expectations of improved forward supply-demand conditions. On processing margins, coking enterprise profits remain within a reasonable range, with stable production enthusiasm and no large-scale production cuts. On macro transmission, China's policy expectations support the black complex, particularly marginal improvements in infrastructure investment and real estate policy, indirectly boosting coking coal demand. Internationally, fluctuations in global energy prices transmit to China's coking coal to some extent, but the impact is relatively limited. Overall, fundamentals are tight, with low inventories and demand expectations jointly supporting higher coking coal prices.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning data show that as of 2026-09-30, the coking coal main contract held a net long of 14,399 lots, down 5,173 lots on the day, indicating some long reduction but still maintaining an overall net long state. Main-contract notional open interest stood at CNY 34.50bn, with a daily change of -CNY 1.412bn, a relatively large reduction, indicating some capital taking profits at key levels. In terms of position structure, the net long of 14,399 lots indicates industrial capital remains bullish on the market, with short covering driving prices higher. The comparison between implied and realized volatility shows market volatility within a reasonable range, with no extreme sentiment. COT weekly change shows no obvious divergence from price, with price and open interest changes broadly synchronized, indicating stable market sentiment. Overall, the position structure is skewed long, and fund flows show longs still dominant, but the magnitude of open interest reduction should be monitored for its impact on subsequent moves.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

On cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio stands at 69.95, with a 1Y percentile of 80.16% and a 3Y percentile of 26.72%, indicating gold is relatively strong versus silver. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, with a 1Y percentile of 96.83% and a 3Y percentile of 56.61%, indicating copper is relatively strong versus gold, reflecting growth expectations. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, with a 1Y percentile of 92.06% and a 3Y percentile of 47.88%, indicating crude oil is relatively strong versus gold. The crack spread is USD 69.72/bbl, reflecting refining margin levels. The US Dollar Index is 102.14, the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, and the VIX is 15.41, with market risk appetite relatively stable. Overall, cross-asset relative value indicates stable risk appetite, with the black complex relatively strong versus other commodities, and Global vs China linkage requires attention to subsequent data.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on a sample of 20 trading days starting from October 8 over the past 13 years, the DCE Coking Coal main continuous contract (DCE.JM) exhibits seasonal divergence. The historical same-period average gain is +1.7%, but the median gain is -1.29%, indicating a significant right skew in the historical distribution, with median performance in up years weaker than average performance. Within the 13-year sample, there were only 5 up years, a win rate of approximately 38.5%, indicating that relying solely on seasonality for long positions yields unstable results. The best historical performance occurred in 2016, with a same-period gain of +48.19%, primarily driven by the resonance of supply-side reform expectations and a restocking cycle; the worst performance occurred in 2021, with a same-period decline of -24.3%, mainly due to strong policy regulation and a rapid contraction in demand. The current 2026-10-08 price of CNY 1,476/t is above the historical same-period average, but combined with current low inventories and winter restocking expectations, seasonal factors may provide marginal support. Note that seasonal statistics reflect only historical probability distributions and do not constitute a deterministic guide to future moves; actual moves should still be judged comprehensively against current supply-demand and positioning. With a win rate of only 38.5%, strategy execution should rely more on technical breakout confirmation and resonance with fundamental drivers, rather than purely betting on seasonal patterns.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 55%): prices extend the rebound trend and test the 20-day high of CNY 1,763.5/t. Trigger condition: daily close holds above CNY 1,460.67/t without breaking below the key support of 1,441. Target price CNY 1,763.5/t; corresponding action is to hold existing long positions, with moderate addition if price breaks above CNY 1,500/t. This scenario is based on the current technical breakout above the 20-day moving average and pivot R1, with low fundamental inventories providing support, consistent with the bullish directional conclusion.

Bullish case (probability 25%): prices accelerate upward, breaking above the 20-day high of CNY 1,763.5/t and continuing higher. Trigger condition: three consecutive daily closes above CNY 1,763.5/t with a synchronized increase in open interest. Target price CNY 1,850/t; corresponding action is to add long positions after the CNY 1,763.5/t breakout, with stop-loss moved up to CNY 1,700/t. This scenario requires further macro policy tailwinds or winter restocking demand exceeding expectations, and is a low-probability, high-reward case.

Bearish case (probability 20%): prices break below key support and revert to range-bound downside. Trigger condition: daily close effectively breaks below the key support of CNY 1,441/t; corresponding action is to close all long positions and wait for new bottom signals. Target price CNY 1,400/t; if CNY 1,433/t is breached, it may test CNY 1,380/t. The main risks for this scenario are demand falling short of expectations or a sudden surge in supply; strict stop-loss control is required.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Strictly execute the established strategy: long entry at CNY 1,450/t, stop-loss at CNY 1,392.2/t, target CNY 1,536.7/t, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk/reward ratio 1:1.5. The stop-loss is set at CNY 1,392.2/t, located below the key support of 1,441, ensuring timely exit when the trend fails and avoiding deep drawdowns. The stop-loss distance is CNY 57.8/t, equal to 1.1×ATR (ATR14 52.536), consistent with volatility-scaling principles. The contract multiplier is 60, with risk per lot of CNY 3,538 (including fees and slippage), and a single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponding to a reference cap of 1 lot. On position sizing, the initial position should not exceed 2% of total capital; if price breaks above CNY 1,500/t and open interest increases, moderate addition is permitted, but total risk exposure should not exceed 4% of total capital. Addition/reduction rules: additions are executed only when price breaks above CNY 1,500/t and the daily close holds above that level, with each addition not exceeding 50% of the initial position. If price breaks below CNY 1,441/t, close positions immediately and do not hold losing trades. This strategy is based on technical breakout and fundamental support, balances risk-reward, and is suitable for the current bullish market environment.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, China CPI y/y data will be released; the forecast and prior value have not been published, and it will have a significant impact on the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. On the same day at 09:30, China PPI y/y data will be released; the forecast and prior value have not been published, and it will likewise affect the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. These two data points will reflect China's inflation and industrial demand conditions, forming a potential driver for Coking Coal prices. Investors should closely monitor the market reaction after the data release; if the figures beat expectations, they may trigger price volatility. No important data releases are scheduled for other dates, and the market will focus on technical and capital-flow changes.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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