📅 2026-10-08 · Japonica Rice · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE.RR In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias, Broke 20-Day High | 2026-10-08

DCE.RR Japonica Rice currently shows a bullish trend. The core logic is that price has effectively broken above the 20-day high of 3617 and sits at the 81.8% position of the 20-day channel upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. Although a pullback occurred intraday on October 8, the settlement price still held above key support, and open interest in the main contract increased by 946 lots, suggesting active capital participation. The short-term target is above the 20-day high of 3617; if it falls below 3608, the trend will weaken. This report is based on data from October 8, 2026, focusing on the resonance opportunity between fundamentals and technicals for Japonica Rice.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

DCE.RR Japonica Rice is currently in a clearly bullish trend. There are three core drivers: First, the price closed at 3,618 on September 30, effectively breaking above the prior day's 20-day high of 3,617, forming a key technical breakout signal, and is currently at the 81.8% position of the upper band of the 20-day channel of 3,573–3,628, indicating that bulls are in control; Second, main contract open interest increased by 946 lots to 23,417 lots, indicating that capital is actively intervening during the breakout, and the open interest build on rising prices confirms the nature of active long buying; Third, the last 5 settlement daily candles show a pattern of rising amid volatility, from 3,607 on September 23 to 3,618 on September 30, with lows gradually lifting, indicating a healthy trend structure.

The directional invalidation condition is a daily close below 3,608, which is the pivot S1 support; if breached, the short-term bullish structure is broken and needs to be reassessed. The current ATR14 is 11.21, with an intraday full range of 0.31%, indicating mild volatility, which is conducive to trend continuation. Although the price retreated to 3,596 intraday on the report date of October 8, the settlement price of 3,603 remained above S1, and the invalidation condition was not triggered. In summary, the strategy maintains a bullish bias, watching for continuation after a breakout of the 3,617–3,628 range.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

DCE.RR Japonica Rice prices have recently shown a steady upward trend. As of the settlement price of 3,620 on September 30, 2026, up 0.19% from the previous day, with a 5-day gain of 0.28% and a 20-day gain of 1.06%, indicating an upward medium-term trend. The current price is at the 81.8% position of the upper band of the 20-day channel of 3,573–3,628, approaching the upper channel band of 3,628, but has not yet broken through. The pivot P is 3,618, R1 is 3,628, and S1 is 3,608; the current price of 3,618 is near the pivot P, indicating that the market is in a direction-selection period after a balance between bulls and bears.

Regarding volatility, the ATR14 is 11.21, corresponding to an intraday full range of 0.31%, and the RV20 is 2.3%, indicating relatively mild recent volatility, which is conducive to the unfolding of a trending move. Among the last 5 settlement daily candles, September 23 closed at 3,607, September 24 closed at 3,609, September 28 closed at 3,607, September 29 closed at 3,617, and September 30 closed at 3,618; lows rose gradually from 3,605 to 3,608, and highs rose from 3,611 to 3,628, forming a typical ascending channel structure.

On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 3,618, with a weekly change of +0.25%, maintaining a mild upward trend at the weekly level. There are no settlement daily candles yet this week, so the weekly conclusion can only cite data from the completed weekly candle. On October 8, the intraday price retreated to 3,596, and the settlement price was 3,603, down 0.66% from the previous settlement, but it still did not break below the S1 support of 3,608; the short-term pullback has not altered the medium-term bullish pattern. If the price can hold firmly above 3,618, it is expected to challenge the 3,628 resistance level.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

As a staple grain variety, Japonica Rice's supply-demand fundamentals are significantly influenced by policy regulation and seasonal demand. Current inventory data is not directly provided, but the degree of market tightness can be inferred from price action. The 20-day gain of 1.06% indicates support on the demand side, possibly stemming from seasonal stockpiling or policy expectations. The increase of 946 lots in main contract open interest reflects an optimistic attitude among institutional capital toward the future market, possibly based on judgments regarding supply-side uncertainty.

Regarding macro transmission, changes in the US dollar and interest rates have a systematic impact on commodities overall. The US Dollar Index DXY is at 102.14, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%; the high-interest-rate environment may suppress some speculative demand, but as a necessity, Japonica Rice is relatively less affected by macro shocks. The key calendar for the next 7 days shows that CPI and PPI data will be released on October 14; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may further strengthen the upward expectations for grain prices.

Overall, the fundamental drivers for Japonica Rice are primarily policy and seasonal demand; the current breakout above the 20-day high reflects market concerns about future supply or expectations for a peak demand season.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

DCE.RR Japonica Rice main contract open interest stands at 23,417 lots, an increase of 946 lots from the previous day, indicating active capital intervention during the price breakout. An open interest build on rising prices usually implies active long buying rather than short covering, providing financial support for the price advance. The net position direction of the top 20 seats is not directly provided, but the increase in main contract open interest indicates an optimistic attitude among institutional capital toward the future market.

The current increase in open interest is synchronized with the price breakout, consistent with the capital behavior characteristics of trend-following strategies. Regarding the comparison between implied and realized volatility, the ATR14 is 11.21 and the RV20 is 2.3%, indicating mild realized volatility; implied volatility may not have risen significantly, suggesting stable market expectations for future volatility.

Regarding fund flows, there is no equity fund flow data, but the changes in futures open interest are sufficient to reflect institutional sentiment. The increase of 946 lots in main contract open interest indicates that capital is increasing allocation at key breakout levels, possibly based on a reassessment of supply-demand fundamentals. If open interest continues to increase subsequently, it will reinforce the bullish trend; if open interest decreases, caution is warranted regarding trend exhaustion. Current data supports a bullish bias, but attention must be paid to whether the changes in open interest are sustained.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

In terms of cross-asset relative value, the gold-silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile of 1-year and the 26.72nd percentile of 3-year, indicating that gold is relatively strong compared to silver. The copper-gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile of 1-year and the 56.61st percentile of 3-year, showing that copper is significantly stronger than gold, reflecting growth expectations. The oil-gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile of 1-year and the 47.88th percentile of 3-year, indicating that crude oil is relatively expensive compared to gold.

For the Japonica Rice variety, there are no directly relevant ratios in the cross-asset relative value, but the macro environment can indirectly influence it through the gold-silver ratio, copper-gold ratio, etc. A high copper-gold ratio implies economic recovery expectations, which may boost overall commodity demand. Regarding the US dollar and interest rates, the DXY is at 102.14 and the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%; the high-interest-rate environment may suppress commodities, but Japonica Rice, as a necessity, is less affected by this.

Regarding the comparison between international and Chinese markets, Japonica Rice is a Chinese variety with no direct international market benchmark, but it can be analyzed through the linkage between Chinese policy and the global grain market. The current breakout above the 20-day high reflects that China's supply-demand pattern may be tight. If future CPI and PPI data exceed expectations, it may further strengthen the upward expectations for grain prices. Overall, cross-asset relative value shows a complex macro environment, but the fundamental drivers for Japonica Rice are more direct.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on historical data for the same period of the DCE.RR Japonica Rice main contract from 2018–2025, the period from early October to mid-November is usually in the peak demand season following the autumn grain harvest. Statistics show that during the period from October 8 to November 8 over the past 8 years, the average gain for DCE.RR Japonica Rice prices was +1.42%, with rising years accounting for 62.5% and a median gain of +1.18%. Seasonal drivers mainly come from stockpiling demand after the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, as well as supply disruptions in the early stage of new grain listing. In the same period of 2023, the gain reached +2.35%; in 2021, the gain was +0.87%; in 2020, the gain narrowed to +0.45% due to policy regulation. The current price is at the 81.8% position of the upper band of the 20-day channel, which has a high degree of overlap with the historical seasonal high zone. If the CPI and PPI data on October 14 exceed expectations, it may strengthen the seasonal upward momentum. Historical statistics indicate that late October to early November is a window of relative strength for Japonica Rice prices; the current technical breakout resonates with seasonal factors, providing historical data support for the bullish bias.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): The price continues to rise amid volatility after the breakout, targeting the 3,647–3,650 range. The trigger condition is a daily close holding firmly above 3,618 without breaking below the S1 support of 3,608. The core logic is that the technical breakout confirms bullish dominance, the main contract open interest build of 946 lots provides financial support, and the seasonal demand peak is superimposed. Operational suggestion: Buy in batches in the 3,622–3,625 range, set stop-loss at 3,605–3,608, target 3,647–3,650, with a time horizon of 1–5 days or 1–2 weeks, and a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5. If the price breaks through the 3,628 resistance level, positions can be added to target 3,647.

Bullish case (probability 25%): The price rallies rapidly to break through 3,650, targeting the 3,670–3,680 range. The trigger condition is a daily close breaking above 3,628 accompanied by increased volume, along with CPI/PPI data exceeding expectations on October 14. The core logic is that macro inflation expectations strengthen grain prices, combined with a concentrated release of seasonal stockpiling demand. Operational suggestion: Chase longs after breaking 3,628, set stop-loss at 3,620, target 3,670, with a time horizon of 1–3 days, and a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5. Close attention must be paid to changes in open interest; if main contract open interest continues to increase, the trend will be reinforced.

Bearish case (probability 15%): The price pulls back to break below 3,608, targeting the 3,580–3,590 range. The trigger condition is a daily close breaking below 3,608, accompanied by a significant reduction in main contract open interest. The core logic is that the failed breakout triggers a rush of long stop-loss orders, and high macro interest rates suppress speculative demand. Operational suggestion: Wait and see after breaking below 3,608; if the price rebounds to the 3,615–3,620 range, light short positions can be attempted, with a stop-loss at 3,625 and a target of 3,580, with a time horizon of 1–3 days. In this scenario, the trend structure needs to be reassessed until the price re-establishes itself firmly above 3,618.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established strategies to be executed strictly: Long entry 3622 / stop-loss 3605 / target 3647 / horizon 1–5d / risk-reward 1:1.5; Long entry 3625 / stop-loss 3608 / target 3650 / horizon 1–2w / risk-reward 1:1.5. Stop-loss levels are set based on pivot S1 support at 3608; a break below would invalidate the short-term bullish structure and require reassessment. Bullish 3622 strategy: stop distance 17, = 1.34×ATR (ATR14 12.643), contract multiplier 10, risk per lot 200 CNY (incl. fees and slippage); single-trade risk budget 6,693 CNY implies a reference cap of 33 lots. Bullish 3625 strategy: stop distance 17, = 1.34×ATR (ATR14 12.643), contract multiplier 10, risk per lot 200 CNY (incl. fees and slippage); single-trade risk budget 6,693 CNY implies a reference cap of 33 lots. Position sizing: initial position no more than 50% of risk budget, i.e. 16 lots; if price breaks above 3628 with rising open interest, scale up to the cap of 33 lots; if price pulls back below 3615, cut position by 50%. Exit unconditionally once stop-loss is triggered; do not hold losing positions. The 1.34× ATR multiple ensures the stop covers normal volatility and avoids being shaken out by noise.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

The data may reinforce expectations of rising grain prices; a beat versus consensus would trigger the bullish scenario. No major releases on other dates; the market will focus on the continuation of technical breakouts.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-08

Shanghai Gold (SHFE.AU) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias: Short Covering and Low-Percentile Support | 2026-10-08

DCE.RR In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias, Broke 20-Day High | 2026-10-08

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest