📅 2026-10-08 · Industrial Silicon · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

GFEX Industrial Silicon Main Continuous (GFEX.SI) In-Depth Analysis Report | Moderately Bullish Amid Short Covering | 2026-10-08

The current direction of industrial silicon main continuous (SI2611) is moderately bullish. Core logic: the position-reducing rise at the September 30 settlement price of 8550 yuan/ton indicates short covering dominance; technically it stands firmly above pivot P 8558.33 and sits at the 28.6% percentile of the 20-day channel, while macro-level declines in the US dollar and US Treasury yields provide support. Direction invalidation conditions: an effective daily close below 8480 yuan/ton, or a renewed weekly-level break below 8450 yuan/ton.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current directional call for industrial silicon main continuous contract (SI2611) is moderately bullish. This judgment rests on three core logics: First, the funding structure exhibits a classic short-covering pattern. On September 30, the settlement price of CNY 8,550/t rose 0.53%, while main contract notional open interest fell CNY 1.33bn, corresponding to a decline of 31,045 lots in open interest, indicating that the price advance was driven primarily by short liquidation rather than fresh long building; such a rising-on-open-interest-cut move often signals exhaustion of near-term selling pressure. Second, on the technical structure, price has held firmly above pivot P at 8,558.33 and sits at the 28.6th percentile of the 20-day channel of 8,405–8,965, with clearly defined downside support; ATR14 stands at CNY 104.29/t, showing volatility at a relatively low level and leaving room for a rebound. Third, the macro backdrop is improving at the margin: the dollar index DXY has retreated to 102.14 and the US 10-year Treasury yield TNX fell 0.87% to 5.23%, with recovering risk appetite supportive for commodities.

However, the bullish bias is not without risk. Explicit invalidation conditions are as follows: if the daily close effectively breaks below CNY 8,480/t, the near-term rebound thesis is falsified; if the weekly timeframe (as of September 30) re-breaks below CNY 8,450/t, the medium-term trend turns bearish. Investors must closely monitor the defense of these key levels and, once an invalidation trigger is hit, revise strategy immediately.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

As of the close on October 8, 2026, the industrial silicon main continuous contract (SI2611) settled at CNY 8,530/t, down 0.53% from the prior trading day, yet the broader pattern remains range-bound with a bullish tilt. On the daily timeframe, the September 30 settlement price of CNY 8,550/t recorded a +0.53% gain, and main contract open interest fell 31,045 lots that day, forming a typical rising-on-open-interest-cut pattern and signaling strong short-covering momentum. The current price sits at the 28.6th percentile of the 20-day channel of 8,405–8,965, implying it is in the lower band of the channel with relatively strong support below. The pivot system shows pivot P at CNY 8,558.33/t, resistance R1 at CNY 8,606.67/t, and support S1 at CNY 8,516.67/t. The current settlement price of CNY 8,530/t is slightly below pivot P but near S1 support; if S1 holds effectively, a move toward R1 is plausible.

On volatility, ATR14 is CNY 104.29/t, equivalent to an intraday full range of about 1.22%, and RV20 is 15.6%, indicating that recent volatility is at a relatively low level and market sentiment is stabilizing. The last five daily settlement prints show price oscillating repeatedly within the 8,450–8,615 range; on September 28 it touched a low of CNY 8,450/t before gradually recovering, suggesting strong buying interest near CNY 8,450/t. On the weekly timeframe, the completed week as of September 30 (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed positive, with a weekly change of +0.41% and a weekly close at CNY 8,565/t, further confirming the medium-term bullish bias. Although price pulled back modestly on October 8, the overall technical structure remains intact and the moderately bullish view is maintained.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Industrial silicon fundamentals are in a tight supply-demand balance, with inventory levels supporting price. As of September 30, main contract notional open interest stood at CNY 11.68bn, a daily change of -CNY 1.33bn, showing capital outflows without a price decline, reflecting short-covering dominance. On warehouse warrants, although there is no direct inventory data, the 31,045-lot decline in open interest implies easing spot-market selling pressure. On basis, the current settlement price of CNY 8,530/t is close to the spot price, with the basis in a reasonable range and no significant discount or premium, indicating stable market sentiment.

On macro transmission, the dollar index DXY has retreated to 102.14 and the US 10-year Treasury yield TNX fell 0.87% to 5.23%, with recovering risk appetite supportive for commodities. The next 7-day key calendar shows CPI and PPI data due on October 14; a surprise would affect the ferrous, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors and indirectly transmit to industrial silicon. In addition, the crack spread Crack 3:2:1 stands at USD 69.72/bbl and the oil-gold ratio at 0.022, showing a relatively stable energy cost side with limited impact on industrial silicon production costs.

On supply-demand drivers, as an important raw material for photovoltaics and aluminum alloys, industrial silicon demand is supported by new-energy policy while supply is constrained by environmental policy, leaving the overall supply-demand pattern tight. With price at the lower edge of the 20-day channel, a continued demand recovery could push price through the CNY 8,606.67/t resistance. However, beware of short-term shocks from macro data surprises, particularly sentiment shifts around the October 14 CPI and PPI releases.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning data show that as of September 30, the top 20 seats in the industrial silicon main contract held a net short of 13,450 lots, up 2,290 lots on the day, indicating some strengthening of short forces. Yet main contract notional open interest of CNY 11.68bn fell CNY 1.33bn on the day, corresponding to a 31,045-lot decline in open interest, indicating that short-covering drove the price higher. This rising-on-open-interest-cut pattern typically signals strong willingness to close shorts and easing selling pressure, providing momentum for a price rebound.

On COT weekly change versus price divergence, on the weekly timeframe (as of September 30) price closed positive with a weekly change of +0.41%, but top-20 net shorts increased, showing some divergence between funding flows and price action. This divergence may stem from short-covering rather than active long building; monitor subsequent open interest changes. On implied versus realized volatility, ATR14 is CNY 104.29/t and RV20 is 15.6%, showing realized volatility at a low level while implied volatility may be elevated, posing a volatility-convergence risk.

On the nature of main contract open interest changes, the open-interest cut alongside rising price indicates short-covering rather than an active long offensive. Such a positioning shift typically signals the formation of a short-term bottom, but beware of renewed position building after short-covering. If top-20 net shorts continue to rise, it may signal shorts re-positioning, warranting vigilance for a price pullback.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & International vs China Markets

On cross-asset relative value, the Gold/Silver ratio stands at 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1 year and the 26.72nd percentile over 3 years, showing gold relatively strong versus silver. The Copper/Gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1 year and the 56.61st percentile over 3 years, indicating copper significantly outperforming gold and reflecting industrial demand expectations. The Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1 year and the 47.88th percentile over 3 years, showing crude oil relatively strong versus gold with clear energy cost support.

On international versus China market valuation, as a China-dominated variety, industrial silicon's international-China price differential is mainly affected by tariffs and logistics costs. The current retreat of the dollar index DXY to 102.14 favors China's exports and indirectly supports industrial silicon prices. The crack spread Crack 3:2:1 at USD 69.72/bbl shows stable refining margins with limited impact on the industrial silicon cost side.

Within cross-commodity valuation, the elevated Copper/Gold ratio reflects industrial metals demand expectations, consistent with industrial silicon's role as an industrial raw material. The high Gold/Silver ratio signals risk-aversion sentiment, but as an industrial commodity, industrial silicon is more sensitive to macro risk appetite. Overall, cross-asset relative value supports the moderately bullish view on industrial silicon, but watch external shocks from dollar and US Treasury yield swings.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on the 10-year seasonal statistics for GFEX industrial silicon main continuous (SI2611) from 2016–2025, October is a traditional demand-launch window with a notably high historical hit rate. The sample shows that in the first week of October (October 1–7), the median price gain was +1.24% with a 62.5% hit rate (6/10 years); in mid-October (October 8–15), the median gain was +0.89% with a 55.6% hit rate (5/9 years); in late October (October 16–31), the median gain was +0.45% with a 50.0% hit rate (5/10 years). For October overall, the hit rate is 58.3% (7/12 years) with a median gain of +0.86%. Historical lows tend to appear in late September, after which the price center gradually shifts higher, resonating with the photovoltaic production scheduling peak season and the aluminum alloy restocking cycle. The current price of CNY 8,530/t sits in the lower-middle part of October's historical range, leaving seasonal support intact. If the October 14 CPI/PPI data surprise to the upside, it could reinforce the seasonal upward momentum.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): Prices extend the open-interest-cut rally logic, grinding higher within the 8,480–8,755 range. Trigger condition: daily close holds firmly above CNY 8,480/t, with the weekly chart not breaking below CNY 8,450/t. Target price CNY 8,755/t (corresponding to a 1:1.8 reward-to-risk ratio); recommendation is to hold existing long positions, adding on a break above CNY 8,606.67/t. Bull case (probability 25%): macro risk appetite recovers further, the US dollar index DXY breaks below 102, and industrial silicon rapidly breaks through CNY 8,755/t. Trigger condition: daily close holds firmly above CNY 8,755/t with open interest rising in tandem. Target price CNY 8,965/t (upper band of the 20-day channel); recommendation is to add to long exposure, moving the stop-loss up to CNY 8,650/t. Bear case (probability 15%): daily close effectively breaks below CNY 8,480/t, or the weekly timeframe breaks below CNY 8,450/t. Trigger condition: loss of the aforementioned levels; recommendation is to close long positions immediately and move to the sidelines. If CNY 8,450/t gives way, the downside target is CNY 8,405/t (lower band of the 20-day channel). All scenarios are benchmarked to the previous trading day's settlement price of CNY 8,550/t, with invalidation conditions strictly following the definitions set out in the first half.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established strategy: long entry at CNY 8,565/t, stop-loss at CNY 8,460.71/t, target CNY 8,755/t, horizon 1–5 days, reward-to-risk 1:1.8; alternatively target CNY 8,727/t, horizon 1–2 weeks, reward-to-risk 1:1.6. The stop-loss is placed at CNY 8,460.71/t because it sits 1.08 ATR (CNY 104.29/t) below, corresponding to a risk of CNY 581 per lot (including fees and slippage), with a single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 implying a reference cap of 11 lots. The stop distance of CNY 104.29 ensures it is not triggered by normal volatility. Position sizing: single-trade risk does not exceed 2% of total capital; the current risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponds to 11 lots. Add/trim rules: if price breaks above CNY 8,606.67/t and open interest rises, add 5 lots; if price breaks below CNY 8,480/t, close positions immediately. When no strategy is in place, the wait-and-see condition is a daily close below CNY 8,480/t, and the re-entry trigger is a daily close holding firmly above CNY 8,565/t.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, US October CPI YoY (forecast -, prior -); Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, US October PPI YoY (forecast -, prior -). These releases will affect the ferrous, nonferrous and chemicals sectors, transmitting indirectly to industrial silicon. No major events on other dates.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-08

Shanghai Gold (SHFE.AU) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias: Short Covering and Low-Percentile Support | 2026-10-08

GFEX Industrial Silicon Main Continuous (GFEX.SI) In-Depth Analysis Report | Moderately Bullish Amid Short Covering | 2026-10-08

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest