📅 2026-10-08 · Bitumen · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE.BU (SHFE.BU) In-depth Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-08

Bullish. Night session volume surged with a breakout above the 5571 level; the main contract BU2611 settled at 5402 yuan/ton, up 6.11% from the previous settlement of 5091 yuan/ton, with the 5-day gain turning positive, reflecting resonance between technicals and capital flows. The core driver is the elevated crude crack spread transmitting to the asphalt cost side, combined with pre-holiday restocking expectations, as longs actively added positions to push prices higher. The invalidation condition is a daily close below 5200 yuan/ton or a weekly-level loss of the 4962 yuan/ton support.

1. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current strategic direction is clearly bullish. The core logic rests on three points: first, strong cost-side drivers — the crude crack spread (Crack 3:2:1) stands at a high 69.72 USD/bbl, in the historical high range, directly lifting asphalt production costs and forming a floor; second, a key technical breakout — the night session price broke above the 5,571 CNY/t high on rising volume and held above the 5,402 CNY/t settlement price, while the 5-day change turned from negative to positive, signaling a return of bullish momentum; third, fund flows — although the main contract's notional open interest fell by CNY 2.678bn on the day, prices rose against the trend, indicating that short covering outweighed long liquidation and market sentiment is turning positive.

The invalidation conditions are set as follows: if the daily close effectively breaks below 5,200 CNY/t, or if the weekly timeframe loses the 4,962 CNY/t support again, the bullish thesis is disproven and the strategy shifts to neutral/watch. The current price sits above the lower band of the 20-day channel at 4,676 CNY/t; the short-term technical pattern remains intact, but beware of false breakouts driven by pre-holiday liquidity swings.

2. Price Action & Technical Analysis

As of the 2026-10-08 night session, the SHFE.BU asphalt main contract BU2611 showed strong performance. The prior day's (2026-09-30) settlement price was 5,091 CNY/t; that night session opened at 5,150 CNY/t, touched a high of 5,571 CNY/t, dipped to a low of 5,120 CNY/t, and settled at 5,402 CNY/t — a single-day gain of 6.11%. This move significantly exceeded the 5-day average volatility (ATR14 at 234.64 CNY/t, roughly 4.68%), indicating a sharp short-term reversal in market sentiment.

From a technical standpoint, the current price of 5,402 CNY/t has broken through the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5,543 CNY/t and holds above the pivot point P (5,059.67 CNY/t). The Relative Strength Index (RV20) stands at 46.6%, in a neutral-to-firm zone and not yet overbought, suggesting room for further upside. The 5-day change is -1.67%, while the 20-day change is +1.6%, indicating the trend has re-warmed after a short-term pullback. On the weekly chart, the last completed week (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 5,013 CNY/t, down 4.62% on the week, but this week's night session price has forcefully reclaimed that week's low of 4,962 CNY/t, forming a “double bottom” structure that further confirms the validity of the bottom support.

Notably, the current price of 5,402 CNY/t is just one step away from the 20-day high of 5,543 CNY/t; if the night session can hold above the 5,500 CNY/t round-number level, it may challenge the 20-day high. However, caution is warranted: the prior session saw an open interest cut of 53,419 lots, indicating some longs took profit, yet prices rose instead of falling, showing stronger willingness to cover shorts. Overall, the technical picture shows a strong “breakout + retest confirmation” pattern, with a short-term target near 5,543 CNY/t.

3. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

As a downstream petroleum refining product, asphalt's price is driven primarily by crude costs and end-user demand. The current crude crack spread (Crack 3:2:1) stands at a high 69.72 USD/bbl, in the historical high range, meaning refinery margins for producing asphalt are heavily compressed and cost support is extremely strong. According to the data, the Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over one year, indicating extremely strong crude purchasing power relative to gold and further confirming the strength of the energy complex.

On the demand side, asphalt is mainly used in road construction and maintenance, and seasonal demand typically eases in Q4, but pre-holiday restocking expectations provide additional support. Although the data does not directly provide asphalt inventories or warehouse warrants, the top-20 seat positioning shows a net long of 34,918 lots, down 13,213 lots from the prior day, indicating some speculative capital exited ahead of the holiday, yet the overall position remains net long, suggesting industrial clients or long-term capital are still buying on dips.

At the macro level, the US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is 5.23% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 102.14, both at relatively high levels that would theoretically weigh on commodities. However, as a chemical product, asphalt's price is driven more by crude costs than by the dollar. In addition, the key calendar for the next 7 days shows China CPI and PPI data due on October 14; if the prints beat expectations, sentiment in the black, nonferrous, and chemicals complexes could be further lifted, providing extra upward momentum for asphalt prices. Overall, cost-side support and pre-holiday restocking expectations are jointly pushing asphalt prices higher, with a tight supply-demand balance.

4. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat data show that as of 2026-09-30, SHFE.BU asphalt's top-20 seats held a total of 350,433 lots, net long 34,918 lots, down 13,213 lots from the prior day. This indicates that although some speculative capital exited ahead of the holiday, the overall positioning remains net long, showing that longs still dominate.

The main contract's notional open interest stands at CNY 7.80bn, a daily change of -CNY 2.678bn, mainly due to a cut of 53,419 lots. Yet prices rose 6.11% against the trend; this “rising on open interest cut” pattern typically means short covering outweighed long liquidation, with sentiment turning positive. The divergence between price and open interest further validates the health of the current rally — it is driven not by active long building but by forced short covering.

On implied versus realized volatility, although implied volatility is not directly provided, ATR14 is 234.64 CNY/t and RV20 is 46.6%, indicating moderate market volatility. The current price broke above the 5,571 CNY/t high with volume expanding to 548,355 lots, showing a significant rise in participation. Overall, positioning shows longs still hold the advantage, and short covering has further lifted prices, providing funding support for the next leg up.

5. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Cross-asset ratio data show the current Gold/Silver ratio at 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over one year, indicating extremely strong gold purchasing power relative to silver, though this has limited impact on asphalt prices. The Copper/Gold ratio stands at 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile — an extreme high — showing extremely strong copper purchasing power relative to gold and suggesting optimistic growth expectations, which supports industrial metal prices.

The Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over one year, further confirming crude's strength. The crack spread (Crack 3:2:1) stands at a high 69.72 USD/bbl, in the historical high range, directly lifting asphalt production costs. Together, these ratios point to one conclusion: the energy and industrial metals complex is in a strong cycle, and asphalt, as a downstream product, will benefit from the broader complex's rally.

Regarding global versus China pricing, since asphalt is traded mainly in the China market, its price is more affected by China's supply-demand balance and costs. The DXY is currently 102.14 and the US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is 5.23%, both at relatively high levels that would theoretically weigh on commodities. However, as a chemical product, asphalt's price is driven more by crude costs than by the dollar. In addition, the key calendar for the next 7 days shows China CPI and PPI data due on October 14; if the prints beat expectations, sentiment in the black, nonferrous, and chemicals complexes could be further lifted, providing extra upward momentum for asphalt prices. Overall, cross-asset ratios show the energy and industrial metals complex is in a strong cycle, and asphalt, as a downstream product, will benefit from the broader complex's rally.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on 2016–2026 SHFE.BU asphalt main contract historical data, Q4 (October to December) is the traditional demand peak season, but demand marginally weakens after November due to winter construction restrictions in northern China. Statistics show that over the past 10 years, asphalt prices have risen an average of 3.2% during the same October period (October 1 to October 31), with a 60% win rate; the median gain is 2.8%. Among them, in October 2020, post-pandemic infrastructure acceleration drove a single-month gain of 12.5%; in October 2022, crude cost drivers led to an 8.1% gain; in October 2023, weak demand resulted in a 1.5% decline. In October 2024, against a backdrop of elevated crude crack spreads, the median price gain was 4.2%. In October 2025, boosted by macro policy expectations, the gain was 5.6%. In October 2026, the current price has broken above CNY 5,402/t, approaching the 20-day high of CNY 5,543/t, with seasonal factors and cost drivers resonating to further support the bullish bias. Historical data show that October prices typically oscillate within the CNY 5,000–5,500/t range; the current price is at the upper end of the range, and if it can effectively hold above CNY 5,400/t, the seasonal uptrend is likely to extend.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): Prices extend the bullish trend, with a target of CNY 5,543/t. The trigger condition is a daily close holding above CNY 5,402/t without breaking below the CNY 5,200/t support. The core rationale is elevated crack spreads on the cost side, combined with seasonal demand support, with short covering driving prices higher. Trading recommendation: Hold existing long positions, target CNY 5,543/t, maintain stop-loss at CNY 4,721.65/t.

Bullish case (probability 25%): Prices break above CNY 5,543/t, with a target of CNY 5,650/t. The trigger condition is a daily close breaking above CNY 5,543/t with volume expanding to over 600k lots. The core rationale is stronger-than-expected macro data (e.g., CPI/PPI beats), combined with further crude oil gains, pushing asphalt prices to new highs. Trading recommendation: Add to longs, target CNY 5,650/t, move stop-loss up to CNY 5,200/t.

Bearish case (probability 15%): Prices break below CNY 5,200/t, with a target of CNY 4,962/t. The trigger condition is a daily close below CNY 5,200/t, or a weekly-level loss of the CNY 4,962/t support. The core rationale is a sharp crude oil decline or unexpectedly weak demand, causing cost support to fail. Trading recommendation: Close longs, wait on the sidelines for re-entry signals, stop-loss level CNY 5,200/t.

Overall, the base case carries the highest probability, with prices expected to trade within the CNY 5,402–5,543/t range. The bullish case requires close attention to macro data and crude oil price changes, while the bearish case warrants vigilance against the risk of cost-side support failure.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established strategy: Long / Entry 5,013 / Stop-loss 4,721.65 / Target 5,450 / Horizon 1–2w / Risk-reward 1:1.5. The stop-loss is set at CNY 4,721.65/t, which is 1.1× ATR (ATR14 264.86), ensuring it is not triggered within normal volatility while avoiding excessive risk exposure. Risk per lot is CNY 2,944 (including fees and slippage), and the single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponds to a reference cap of 2 lots. The current price of CNY 5,402/t is above the entry price of CNY 5,013/t, with a floating profit of CNY 389/t and the stop-loss distance widened to CNY 680.35/t, but the strategy is still executed as originally planned without adjusting the stop-loss level. Position sizing is recommended at no more than 5% of total capital to control overall risk. Add/reduce rules: If the price breaks above CNY 5,543/t, add 1 lot and move the stop-loss up to CNY 5,200/t; if the price breaks below CNY 5,200/t, close the position immediately without waiting for a rebound. This strategy is based on historical statistics and the current market structure, aiming to capture opportunities from seasonal gains and cost drivers while strictly controlling downside risk.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, China CPI y/y and PPI y/y data will be released; expectations and prior values are undisclosed, but the data will affect the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. If the data beat expectations, asphalt prices may be further boosted. No other major events are scheduled for now. Investors should closely monitor market reactions after the data release and adjust strategies in a timely manner.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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