📅 2026-10-08 · SHFE Nickel · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-08

The current direction of SHFE Nickel (NI2611) is bearish, with the core logic being that the price has broken below a key support level and open interest shows longs actively exiting. Technically, the settlement price on October 8 was 119,550 yuan/ton, breaking below pivot S1 (121,530) and approaching the lower edge of the 20-day channel, with the night session continuing to weaken. Fundamentally, LME inventory has increased for 20 consecutive periods, cumulatively rising by 13,254 tons; SHFE warrants have declined slightly, but overall supply pressure remains unchanged. On the funding side, net short positions among the top 20 seats have risen to 23,030 lots, indicating growing bearish sentiment among institutions. If the price effectively breaks below 118,000 yuan/ton, further downside space will open up.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current direction for SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) main contract NI2611 is clearly bearish. The core driving logic is threefold: First, the price structure has broken down — the settlement price of CNY 119,550/t on October 8 [2026-10-08 settlement] has fallen below pivot S1 (CNY 121,530/t) and the lower band of the 20-day channel (CNY 120,270/t), and the night session extended the decline. Second, positioning favors the shorts — net short positions among the top 20 seats reached 23,030 lots [2026-09-30], up 1,544 lots on the day, indicating institutional funds continue to build shorts. Third, supply-side pressure is emerging — LME nickel inventories have accumulated by 13,254 tonnes over the last 20 sessions [2026-10-07]; although SHFE warrants have declined slightly, the overall inventory build trend caps price rebound potential.

Invalidation condition: If the daily close reclaims CNY 121,530/t, or the night session breaks above CNY 122,390/t (pivot R1) on volume, the short-term bearish thesis is disproven and the bias shifts to range-bound or bullish.

II. Price Action & Technicals

SHFE Nickel (NI2611) shows a clear bearish technical alignment. As of the October 8 settlement price of CNY 119,550/t [2026-10-08 settlement], the price fell 2.47% versus the previous trading day (CNY 122,040/t [2026-09-30 settlement]), with the 5-day decline widening to 2.31% and the 20-day cumulative decline reaching 4.71%. The price has broken below pivot S1 (CNY 121,530/t) and is approaching the lower band of the 20-day channel (CNY 120,270/t), sitting at the 19.1th percentile of the 20-day range (CNY 120,270–129,540/t), indicating short-term oversold conditions but an unchanged trend.

On volatility, ATR14 is CNY 1,934.29/t (1.58%), with a wide intraday full range; RV20 is 14.8%, indicating heightened recent price volatility. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 122,040/t, down 2.62% on the week; there is no settled daily bar yet this week, so the weekly conclusion can only reference that completed weekly bar. The night session extended the decline, with prices probing CNY 118,150/t, showing strong short momentum. If the price breaks below CNY 118,000/t, the next support may be seen near CNY 116,500/t.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On the fundamentals, supply-side pressure in nickel is emerging. LME nickel inventories stood at 284,178 tonnes as of October 7, unchanged on the day (0 tonnes), but up 13,254 tonnes cumulatively over the last 20 sessions, indicating continued global inventory accumulation. SHFE nickel warrants were 90,835 tonnes as of September 30, down 739 tonnes (-0.81%) on the day; despite the slight decline, overall inventory pressure remains. The inventory build trend caps price rebound potential, especially against a backdrop of no significant improvement in global demand, intensifying concerns over oversupply.

On macro transmission, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stood at 102.14 on October 8, down 0.1%, but the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, with the high-rate environment suppressing industrial metals demand. China's CPI and PPI data will be released on October 14; if the data disappoint, nickel prices will be further pressured. Additionally, as a key raw material for stainless steel and new-energy batteries, nickel demand is highly correlated with macroeconomic conditions; rising macro uncertainty currently weighs on nickel prices.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning shows shorts in control. Top 20 seat data show net shorts of 23,030 lots on October 8, up 1,544 lots on the day, with a net short directional bias. Notional open interest in the main contract was CNY 16.05bn, down CNY 84m on the day, with open interest down 687 lots, indicating longs exiting actively while shorts cover or wait on the sidelines. In a declining-price, falling-open-interest pattern, downside resistance is low.

Comparing implied and realized volatility, RV20 is 14.8% and ATR14 is CNY 1,934.29/t, showing heightened market volatility; however, the price decline came with falling open interest, indicating long stop-loss exits rather than aggressive short building — more a sign of weak long confidence. This positioning structure is unfavorable for a price rebound and further confirms the bearish bias.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

On cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1 year, showing gold outperforming silver; the copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1 year, indicating copper significantly outperforming gold, reflecting growth expectations; the oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1 year, showing crude oil relatively expensive versus gold. These ratio shifts reflect declining risk appetite and flows into safe-haven assets, pressuring industrial metals such as nickel.

Between international and China markets, SHFE Nickel (NI2611) trades at a premium to LME nickel, but with LME inventories accumulating, the onshore-offshore spread is converging. The night session for China contracts underperformed international markets, indicating weak China demand. Taken together with relative value signals, nickel prices are unlikely to rally independently in the short term and will follow macro and inventory trends lower.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on historical statistics for the 20 trading days starting October 8 over the past 11 years, SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) seasonal performance shows divergent characteristics. The sample shows an average gain of +0.84% for this period, but a median gain of -1.68%, indicating that more years historically declined. Of the 11 sample years, 5 were up and 6 were down, an up-win rate of about 45.5%. The best-performing year was 2017, with a gain of +22.59% over the same period; the worst was 2024, with a decline of -6.39%. Currently in 2026, combined with the bearish bias noted above, historical statistics show seasonality is not a strong support factor; the median decline and sub-50% up-win rate further support the likelihood of price pressure in the current environment. Although the average gain is positive, the median better reflects the typical year's performance, i.e., seasonal resistance outweighs support. Therefore, absent strong fundamental drivers, seasonal statistics do not support a significant price rebound and instead suggest the downtrend may persist.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 55%): The price continues lower, with the core logic of inventory accumulation and short-dominated positioning. Trigger: daily close fails to hold above CNY 121,530/t, and the night session does not break above CNY 122,390/t on volume. Targets: CNY 118,583/t (1–5 day horizon) and CNY 119,104/t (1–2 week horizon). Action: maintain short positions; add on a rebound toward CNY 122,040/t, with stop-loss at CNY 124,344.5/t.

Bullish case (probability 25%): A technical rebound occurs, triggered by a daily close reclaiming CNY 121,530/t or a volume-backed night-session break above CNY 122,390/t. Target: CNY 124,344.5/t (corresponding to a stop-loss reversal). Action: if triggered, close short positions and consider a light long trial, with stop-loss below CNY 121,530/t.

Bearish case (probability 20%): The price accelerates lower, triggered by an effective break below the key support of CNY 118,000/t. Target: near CNY 116,500/t. Action: if the price breaks below CNY 118,000/t, add to shorts, with stop-loss above CNY 120,000/t.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This strategy strictly follows the established plan: short entry at CNY 122,040/t, stop-loss at CNY 124,344.5/t, targets at CNY 118,583/t (1–5 days) and CNY 119,104/t (1–2 weeks), horizon 1–5 days or 1–2 weeks, with reward-to-risk ratios of 1:1.5 and 1:1.3 respectively. The stop-loss is set at CNY 124,344.5/t because it corresponds to 1.1× ATR (ATR14 of CNY 2,095/t), covering noise within the normal volatility range and avoiding being shaken out by short-term swings. Risk per lot is CNY 2,335 (including fees and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponds to a reference cap of 2 lots. On position sizing, the initial position is recommended at no more than 2 lots; if the price moves toward the target without triggering the stop-loss, consider adding near CNY 122,040/t, but total risk exposure should not exceed 3× the single-trade budget. If the price breaks above CNY 124,344.5/t, exit immediately to avoid larger losses.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

No major data releases on other dates.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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