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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Cotton (CT=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Oversold Technicals | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias for Cotton (CT=F) based on a technical rebound from oversold conditions, supportive positioning, and a favorable cross-asset setup. The primary catalyst is the price's proximity to the 20-day support band, offering a high-probability mean-reversion opportunity. Invalidation remains tied to a sustained break below the 79.123 support level. The current setup suggests that while the medium-term trend is corrective, the immediate momentum favors a move back toward the 80.313 pivot and potentially higher. This view is underpinned by the fact that the asset is trading near the lower bound of its 20-day channel, a zone historically associated with buying interest. Furthermore, the cross-asset environment, characterized by a relatively high gold-silver ratio, implies a flight to quality that often benefits agricultural commodities as inflation hedges. We expect the market to test the 80.313 pivot in the near term, with a target of 81.503 if momentum accelerates.