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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

ES=F Deep Dive | Bullish on 7822 Support | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on ES=F, targeting a retest of the 20-day high at 7897.5 following a technical consolidation near the 7822.5 settle. The primary driver is the resilience of the 20-day channel, which has held support at 7821.25 despite a minor pullback, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. A break above the R1 pivot at 7859.5 would confirm the resumption of the uptrend. The invalidation level is a sustained close below 7784.25, which would signal a deeper correction toward the S2 level at 7746. While macro headwinds persist, the technical structure favors longs on dips, with the current intraday price action in Asia showing early signs of stabilization. This setup offers a favorable risk-reward profile for institutional positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings season and potential policy shifts.