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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FCPO=F Deep Dive | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-09

We initiate a bullish stance on FCPO=F, targeting a sustained move above the 4663 settle with invalidation if price retreats below 4548. The primary catalyst is a structural supply squeeze in palm oil, driven by persistent low inventories and constrained production, which is currently outpacing demand-side headwinds. Technicals confirm this fundamental thesis, with the contract breaking through key resistance levels and momentum indicators flashing positive signals. While macro volatility remains elevated, the specific market mechanics for palm oil futures point to a clear upside trajectory in the near term. This report focuses on the first half of our analysis, detailing the directional bias, technical setup, and fundamental drivers supporting our long view.