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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Mean Reversion Setup | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on Gold (GC=F) as the market remains oversold on a 20-day basis with implied volatility elevated relative to realized moves, suggesting a mean-reversion setup. The latest intraday snapshot shows price stabilizing above key support levels, while COT data reveals persistent managed-money crowding that often precedes sharp reversals. A daily close above 4175.77 would confirm the breakout, with a target of 4194.53. Conversely, a daily close below 4133.17 would invalidate the thesis. The supply-demand backdrop remains neutral, with COMEX registered inventories stable and no significant shifts in ETF flows. Cross-asset ratios indicate gold is outperforming silver, supporting a relative value trade. We expect a rebound toward the upper end of the 20-day channel, driven by technical exhaustion and volatility compression.