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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

GF=F (GF=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Contango Support | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on GF=F (Guangzhou Futures Exchange iron ore futures) as contango structure and seasonal demand resilience outweigh near-term volatility. The instrument settled at 335.3 on 2026-10-08, up 2.41% over 20 days and trading within the upper 83.8% of its 20-day range. While the 5-day trend remains slightly negative (-0.42%), the broader weekly structure supports higher prices, with the last completed weekly bar closing above key moving averages. Technical pivots suggest immediate resistance at 337.43, but a breach above could target 339.55. Invalidation occurs if price closes below 332.8 with sustained volume. Fundamentals remain supportive: inventory levels are below five-year averages, and steel production remains resilient despite macro headwinds. Positioning shows moderate long interest without extreme crowding, and implied volatility remains subdued relative to realized moves. Cross-asset ratios indicate iron ore is outperforming relative to other industrial commodities, reinforcing the bullish case. We expect continued upward momentum into the end of the year, driven by seasonal construction demand and supply constraints.