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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Lean Hogs (HE=F) Deep Dive | Short on Weak Demand | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bearish stance on Lean Hogs (HE=F) as the market grapples with persistent oversupply and softening demand fundamentals. The instrument settled at 68.6 [2026-10-08 settle], down 7.73% over the past 20 sessions, reflecting a structural shift away from recent highs. While the current week has seen intraday volatility, the underlying technical structure remains negative, with price trading below key moving averages and failing to reclaim the 20-day channel support. Supply-side pressures, evidenced by robust inventory levels relative to historical norms, continue to weigh on sentiment. Furthermore, positioning data suggests that while speculative short interest has not reached extreme levels, the lack of significant long accumulation leaves the market vulnerable to further downside. A break below the 68.083 support level [settle] would accelerate the decline toward 67.567 [settle]. The primary invalidation for this view would be a sustained close above the 20-day resistance at 74.375 [settle], which would signal a potential trend reversal. Until such a breakout occurs, the path of least resistance remains lower.