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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Contango & Seasonality | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on Natural Gas (NG=F) with a target above 3.3827 and an invalidation at a daily close below 3.0833. The primary drivers are a steep contango structure signaling near-term supply tightness, strong seasonal tailwinds entering the heating season, and a technical rebound from oversold conditions. While the market remains in a broader downtrend, the current setup offers a tactical long opportunity. The contract NGX26.NYM is the relevant delivery vehicle for this analysis. Key support lies at 3.0833, with resistance at 3.2753 and 3.3827. A sustained break above 3.2753 would confirm the reversal, targeting the 20-day high of 3.395. Conversely, a failure to hold 3.0833 invalidates the thesis. The current intraday price of 3.13 (Asia) suggests further weakness before a potential bounce, but the structural setup favors the upside.