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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Palladium (PA=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bearish stance on Palladium (PA=F) with an invalidation level at 1131. The metal has entered a sustained correction, trading below its 20-day moving average and approaching critical support at 1115. Recent price action reflects weakening demand fundamentals, particularly in the automotive sector, where palladium's role as a substitute for platinum in catalytic converters continues to erode. Technical indicators suggest further downside momentum, with the 5-day and 20-day trends both negative. While short-term volatility remains elevated, the structural shift in demand dynamics points to lower prices in the near term. Traders should monitor the 1115 support level closely, as a breach could accelerate selling pressure toward the 1098.47 level. The current intraday bounce in Asian trading appears to be a technical relief rally rather than a fundamental reversal. Institutional positioning remains cautious, with open interest declining as traders reduce exposure to this underperforming commodity.