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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

XAU=F Deep Dive | Long on Oversold Reversion | 2026-10-09

We maintain a long bias on XAU=F, targeting a technical reversion from oversold conditions toward the 20-day channel midpoint. Gold has corrected sharply over the past month, falling 4.27% over 20 days and 1.08% over five days, yet remains structurally supported by elevated real yields and persistent ETF outflows that have compressed supply. The current price of 4132.13 (settle 10-08) sits near the lower bound of the 20-day range (4066.36–4402.
19) and above the primary pivot support at 4127.07. Invalidation occurs if price breaches 4084.5 (S2) on a settled basis. While macro headwinds from a strong dollar and high yields persist, the technical setup favors a bounce. Asia trade on 10-09 shows early buying at 4138.97, reinforcing the near-term rebound thesis. We expect gold to test resistance at 4150.88 (R1) before seeking higher targets, provided the 4084.5 level holds.