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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bearish stance on Corn (ZC=F) as harvest pressure and ample supplies outweigh seasonal tailwinds. The contract settled at 500.25 on 2026-10-08, down 6.28% over 20 days and approaching the lower bound of its 20-day channel. While seasonal patterns suggest a modest mean reversion, the dominant supply-side dynamics—recorded inventories and robust harvest progress—favor downside risk. A breach above the R2 pivot at 506.58 (settle 2026-10-08) would invalidate this view, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Technicals show weakness with price below the 20-day moving average and relative volatility elevated, suggesting further downside potential. We target the S2 support at 494.58 if selling pressure intensifies. This call is based on a confluence of fundamental oversupply and technical breakdown, with the primary risk being a surprise in USDA reports or weather disruptions that could tighten supplies unexpectedly.