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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybean Oil (ZL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Margin Support | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on Soybean Oil (ZL=F) driven by resilient crush margins and technical support at key pivot levels. The market is currently trading near the 20-day moving average, with a 5-day positive momentum offsetting a broader 20-day correction. A break above the R1 pivot at 68.377 would confirm the near-term upside, while a sustained close below 66.873 would invalidate the thesis. Despite the broader 20-day decline of 5.56%, the recent 5-day gain of 0.8% suggests a stabilization phase. The current settle of 67.92 sits comfortably within the 20-day channel of 66.61–72.23, indicating that the asset is not yet in an oversold territory that would trigger a capitulation. Furthermore, the US soybean crush margin at 2.5174 USD/bu is in the 61st percentile over the last year, providing a fundamental floor for prices. We expect the market to test the upper end of the current range as processing demand remains robust. The primary risk remains a sudden macro shock, but the current data supports a long position with a stop below the S2 pivot.