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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Supply Tightness | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on Wheat (ZW=F) as the market prices in a structural supply deficit driven by tight global inventories, constrained export availability, and a technical setup that favors upside continuation. The current price of 683.25 [settle 10-08] sits within a 20-day range of 670.75–743.5, with a 20-day channel positioning at 17.2% of the range, suggesting limited immediate downside. While macro headwinds from a strong dollar and elevated yields persist, they are outweighed by fundamental supply constraints. A daily close below 675.92 [S2] would invalidate this view, signaling a breakdown in support. The contract ZWZ26.CBT reflects the December delivery month, which is the primary vehicle for institutional positioning. Seasonal trends support a positive bias, with the next 20 sessions historically averaging +0.91% gains. We see potential for a move toward 695.42 [R2] if momentum builds, though volatility remains elevated with an ATR14 of 16.61. This call is based on a confluence of supply-side pressures and technical resilience, not on equity flows or speculative positioning alone.