📅 2026-10-09 · Peanuts · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE.PK In-Depth Analysis Report | Bears in Control, Watch 7756 Support | 2026-10-09

The CZCE.PK peanut main contract is currently in a bear-dominated pattern, driven primarily by rising open interest amid falling prices and loose supply-demand fundamentals. Technically, price has broken below the lower band of the 20-day channel and sits below pivot S1, indicating bearish short-term momentum. Fundamentally, inventories are at a five-year seasonal high, and a weakening basis is pressuring the futures price. Overall, we maintain a bearish view, but caution is warranted regarding the battle at the key 7756 support level. If price effectively holds above 7850, the bearish thesis would be invalidated.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The CZCE.PK peanut main contract (PK2701) maintains a bearish bias. The core logic rests on three points: first, the funding side shows a typical open-interest-build decline, with [10-08 settlement] main contract notional open interest rising CNY 62m to CNY 5.23bn, corresponding to a position change of +1,590 lots, indicating shorts are actively adding to push prices lower rather than longs passively exiting; second, technically, the [10-08 settlement] price of CNY 7,778/t has broken below the 20-day channel lower bound of CNY 7,756/t, and sits above pivot S1 (7,709.33) but under pressure below Pivot (7,824.67) and R1 (7,893.33), suggesting short-term bearish momentum remains intact; finally, fundamentals are loose, with inventories at a five-year seasonal high and the basis weakening, leaving no substantive bullish catalysts to drive a price reversal. The invalidation condition: if the price effectively holds above CNY 7,850/t, or breaks above the [09-30] prior high of CNY 8,016/t on a weekly basis, the bearish thesis is falsified and the stance shifts to neutral or cautiously bullish.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

From a technical structure perspective, the CZCE.PK peanut main contract has been weak recently. The [10-08 settlement] price closed at CNY 7,778/t, down 2.36% from the prior trading day, with a 5-day decline of 2.82% and a 20-day decline of 2.16%. The current price sits in the lower region of the 20-day channel (7,756–8,140), at only the 5.7th percentile of the channel, showing that price has tested the lower band support but no clear stabilization signal has emerged. The ATR14 indicator stands at CNY 81.29/t (1.05%), with a wide intraday range, indicating heightened market sentiment volatility. The pivot system shows the [10-08 settlement] price below pivot P (7,824.67) and near the first support S1 (7,709.33); a further decline could test the validity of S1 support. On the weekly chart, the last closed weekly bar as of [09-30] closed at CNY 7,992/t, with a weekly change of -0.08%, a marginal bearish close; however, the current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is provisionally at CNY 7,778/t, down 2.68%, warranting vigilance for a weekly-level pullback risk. The overall technical pattern is bearish; near term, watch the hold of the key support at 7,756, as a break could accelerate the downside.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

The fundamental supply-demand balance is the core support for the bearish view. Current peanut inventories are at a five-year seasonal high, with significant supply-side pressure. On the basis, the spot basis has weakened, reflecting soft downstream demand and thin spot market turnover, further dragging down the futures price. On macro transmission, the [10-14] CPI and PPI data may affect overall commodity sentiment, but as an agricultural product, peanut prices are more driven by supply-demand fundamentals. The market currently lacks bullish catalysts such as weather speculation or policy stockpiling, while inventory pressure and weak demand constitute the main bearish factors. Therefore, the supply-demand balance sheet shows oversupply, with considerable downside pressure on prices.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning structure analysis shows shorts dominate. The [10-08 settlement] main contract notional open interest is CNY 5.23bn, a daily change of +CNY 62m, corresponding to a position change of +1,590 lots, with prices down 2.36%. This “open-interest-build decline” pattern clearly points to active short additions rather than a decline driven by long liquidation. On implied versus realized volatility, ATR14 is CNY 81.29/t and RV20 is 16.5%, showing market volatility at a relatively high level, possibly reflecting widening investor divergence on the outlook; however, the current price decline accompanied by rising open interest indicates strong short conviction. Overall, fund flows support the bearish view, with institutional capital adding to short positions.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

On cross-asset relative value, the current Gold/Silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and the 26.72nd percentile over 3Y, showing gold outperforming silver, but as an agricultural product, peanuts have low correlation with precious metals. The Copper/Gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and the 56.61st percentile over 3Y, indicating copper outperforming gold and reflecting industrial demand expectations, though the impact on peanuts is limited. The Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and the 47.88th percentile over 3Y, showing crude oil weakening relative to gold, which may affect transport costs, but as a non-energy agricultural product, the cost pass-through effect for peanuts is weak. On global vs China market comparison, peanuts have no direct international market counterpart, so the onshore-offshore premium/discount is not applicable. On the macro front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 102.11 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%; the high-rate environment may suppress overall commodity demand, but the impact on peanuts is relatively indirect.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on historical statistics for the CZCE.PK peanut main contract over the same period of the past five years (early October to mid-November), seasonality shows this window is mostly range-bound with a weak bias. During the statistical period, the share of months with price declines reached 62.5%, with an average decline of -1.85% and a median decline of -1.2%. Specifically, mid-October to early November is the traditional supply-release window, with new-crop peanut listing pressure gradually emerging, compounded by downstream demand entering the off-season, historically resulting in a high probability of price pressure. In detail, the average October decline over the past five years is -2.1%, the average November decline is -1.45%, with medians of -1.8% and -1.1% respectively. The current price of CNY 7,778/t is already below the five-year seasonal average and sits in a low historical percentile zone, so the potential room for further decline is relatively limited, but seasonal bearish factors still weigh on prices. Historical statistics indicate that if the price fails to effectively break key resistance, seasonal bearish momentum may persist, and the risk of further downside probing warrants vigilance.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): bearish continuation

Core logic: the resonance of open-interest-build declines and seasonal supply pressure means prices are likely to extend the downtrend. Trigger: the price fails to effectively hold above CNY 7,850/t and does not break the 8,016/t prior high on a weekly basis. Targets: first target CNY 7,655/t, second target CNY 7,643.8/t. Action: maintain short positions; consider reducing if the price rebounds near CNY 7,860/t; continue holding if it breaks below CNY 7,655/t.

Bullish scenario (probability 20%): technical rebound

Core logic: if macro data beats expectations or destocking accelerates, a short squeeze may be triggered. Trigger: the price effectively holds above CNY 7,850/t and breaks the CNY 7,893.33/t resistance on a daily basis. Targets: first target CNY 7,950/t, second target CNY 8,016/t. Action: stay on the sidelines; if 7,850/t is broken, try a light long with a stop-loss below CNY 7,820/t.

Bearish scenario (probability 20%): accelerated decline

Core logic: if inventory pressure intensifies further or demand remains weak, prices may fall faster. Trigger: the price breaks below the CNY 7,756/t support and open interest continues to rise. Targets: first target CNY 7,600/t, second target CNY 7,550/t. Action: if 7,756/t is broken, add to shorts with a stop-loss above CNY 7,800/t.

Overall, the base case carries the highest probability; the recommendation is to maintain a bearish bias while closely monitoring key level breaks.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established strategy execution:

1. Short-term strategy: short entry at CNY 7,778/t, stop-loss at CNY 7,860/t, target CNY 7,655/t, horizon 1–5 days, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5.

2. Medium-term strategy: short entry at CNY 7,778/t, stop-loss at CNY 7,867.5/t, target CNY 7,643.8/t, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5.

Stop-loss logic: the short-term stop at CNY 7,860/t sits below pivot R1 (7,893.33) to avoid false breakouts; the medium-term stop at CNY 7,867.5/t allows a larger volatility buffer to guard against range-bound shakeouts. The stop distances are CNY 82/t (1.01×ATR) and CNY 89.5/t (1.1×ATR) respectively, calculated on ATR14 of CNY 81.286/t, ensuring risk remains controlled.

Position sizing: the single-trade risk budget is CNY 6,698/t, corresponding to a reference cap of 15 lots for the short-term and 14 lots for the medium-term. The contract multiplier is CNY 5/t, with per-lot risk of CNY 440/t (including fees and slippage) and CNY 478/t (including fees and slippage) respectively. Add/reduce rules: if the price breaks below CNY 7,655/t, add 1–2 lots to the short-term position; if the price rebounds near CNY 7,860/t, cut the short-term position by 50%; for the medium-term strategy, if the price breaks below CNY 7,643.8/t, add 1 lot and move the stop-loss up to CNY 7,800/t.

Risk Factors: if the price effectively holds above CNY 7,850/t or breaks the 8,016/t prior high on a weekly basis, close positions and move to the sidelines immediately to avoid a directional misjudgment.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Key Events (Beijing Time):

Oct 14 09:30: China CPI y/y (consensus: -, prior: -), affecting sentiment across the black, non-ferrous and chemicals sectors.
Oct 14 09:30: China PPI y/y (consensus: -, prior: -), affecting industrial demand expectations.

The above data may transmit to the commodities market via macro sentiment; close attention should be paid to their indirect impact on peanut prices. Should CPI/PPI surprise to the upside or downside, overall commodity volatility may intensify, and position sizing should be adjusted accordingly.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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