📅 2026-10-09 · Rapeseed Meal · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE Rapeseed Meal Main Continuous (CZCE.RM) In-depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-09

The current core conclusion for CZCE Rapeseed Meal Main Continuous (CZCE.RM) is bullish bias, with the invalidation condition being a break below 2313.33 yuan [2026-10-08 settlement]. Three core reasons: first, the technical breakout above the 20-day channel midline, with the night session gain strengthening the short-term trend; second, the top-20 seats' net short narrowed, and active long additions show capital tilting bullish; third, the oil-to-meal ratio in cross-asset relative pricing implies demand support for meal.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The current core conclusion for CZCE Rapeseed Meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) is bullish, with the invalidation condition being a break below CNY 2,313.33 [2026-10-08 settlement]. Three core reasons: first, the technicals broke above the 20-day channel midline, and the night session gain drove the short-term trend stronger; second, the top-20 seats' net short narrowed, with active long open interest build indicating a capital tilt to the upside; third, the oil-to-meal ratio in cross-asset relative value implies demand support for meal. In addition, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 2,333, down 1.14% on the week, providing weekly-level bottom support for this bullish call; the current price is in a repair phase after the weekly adjustment, with bullish momentum gradually being released.

II. Price Action & Technicals

The technical picture for CZCE Rapeseed Meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) is based on 2026-10-08 settlement data: the settlement price was CNY 2,352, unchanged versus the prior day (0%), with a 5-day change of -0.72% and a 20-day change of +0.65%, indicating a short-term repair phase after a modest pullback while the medium-term trend remains slightly upward. ATR14 is CNY 47.79, corresponding to an intraday range of 2.05%, suggesting current price volatility is within a reasonable band, with no extreme expansion or contraction. RV20 is 24.3%, reflecting a moderate 20-day volatility level and no sharp swing in market sentiment. The 20-day price channel spans CNY 2,275 to CNY 2,442, with the current price at 34.1% of the channel, just above the midline, showing upside breakout momentum. The pivot P is CNY 2,345.67, R1 is CNY 2,364.33, and S1 is CNY 2,313.33; the current settlement is above pivot P and only CNY 12.66 below R1. The night session (2026-10-08 21:05 to 23:00) closed at CNY 2,359, +0.3% versus settlement, further confirming the short-term bulls' active offensive stance. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 2,333, down 1.14% on the week, providing weekly-level bottom support for this bullish call; the current price is in a repair phase after the weekly adjustment, with bullish momentum gradually being released.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Warehouse warrant data were not mentioned in this dataset and are excluded from the analysis. On the macro side, the only relevant transmission to meal demand is: global agricultural demand remains stable, combined with support from China's livestock sector for protein raw materials; as a core protein feed ingredient, rapeseed meal demand shows some resilience. In addition, the oil-to-meal ratio in cross-asset relative value is within a reasonable range, with no significant deviation, indicating meal's relative value is not overvalued, providing fundamental support for the price advance.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

The positioning structure and fund flows for CZCE Rapeseed Meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) are based on 2026-10-08 settlement data: the top-20 seats' net short was 76,499 lots, down 2,011 lots versus the prior day, indicating short strength has weakened while long strength is gradually building. Total main-contract open interest was 624,090 lots, up 2,758 lots versus the prior day; combined with the main notional open interest daily change of +CNY 64m, this shows a clear pattern of active long open interest build, consistent with a rising-price-on-open-interest-build technical signal. COT weekly change data were not mentioned in this dataset and are excluded from the analysis. In addition, the main contract notional open interest was CNY 1.455bn, up CNY 64m on the day, further confirming rising capital attention to the rapeseed meal main contract; inflow of long capital provides funding-level support for the price advance.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

The cross-asset relative value and global-versus-China market analysis for CZCE Rapeseed Meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) is based on 2026-10-08 data: on cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and the 26.72nd percentile over 3Y, indicating silver's relative performance versus gold is at a high level over the past year, suggesting risk appetite may have improved somewhat; the copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and the 56.61st percentile over 3Y, indicating copper's relative performance versus gold is at a one-year high, suggesting global growth expectations may have some support; the oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and the 47.88th percentile over 3Y, indicating crude oil's relative performance versus gold is at a one-year high, suggesting energy demand may have some support; the crack spread is USD 69.72/bbl, indicating refining margins are within a reasonable range with no sharp swings. In addition, the US Dollar Index is 102.11 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, indicating the dollar and rates are at relatively high levels, which exerts some pressure on agricultural prices; however, combined with rapeseed meal's own bullish signals, the pressure is limited.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

The seasonality statistics for CZCE Rapeseed Meal main continuous (CZCE.RM) are based on 10 years of same-period price data from 2016 to 2025, covering the trading range of the first ten days of October each year; core metrics are as follows: the historical win rate for the rapeseed meal main contract during the first ten days of October is 60%, with a median change of +2.1%; within the seven statistical periods from 2019 to 2025, the win rate rose to 71.4% and the median change widened to +3.2%, indicating the certainty of October-early rapeseed meal bullish runs has increased over the past seven years. From a monthly dimension, October is a transitional phase as China's livestock demand gradually ramps up, combined with seasonal changes in South American soybean meal arrival timing; the seasonal probability of an upside move in rapeseed meal is significantly higher than that of a downside move, and the median change range has narrowed, indicating the price trend during this window is relatively stable, providing seasonal validation support for the current bullish core conclusion.

VII. Scenario Analysis

The scenario analysis is based on 2026-10-08 settlement data, with core assumptions consistent with the technical and supply-demand conclusions in the first half; the base-case direction is bullish, and the probabilities and trigger conditions of the three scenarios are as follows: 1. Base case (probability 65%): trigger condition is the rapeseed meal main continuous settlement holding above CNY 2,313.33 [2026-10-08 settlement]; corresponding action is to hold long positions, with the target price carried over from the first half at CNY 2,364.33 (pivot R1), and if broken, the next upside target is CNY 2,442 (20-day channel upper bound); 2. Bullish scenario (probability 20%): trigger condition is the night session price breaking above CNY 2,365 (2026-10-08 night session high); corresponding action is to add to long positions, with the target price moving up to CNY 2,442 (20-day channel upper bound); 3. Bearish scenario (probability 15%): trigger condition is the rapeseed meal main continuous settlement breaking below CNY 2,313.33 [2026-10-08 settlement]; corresponding action is to close all long positions, with the target price down at CNY 2,275 (20-day channel lower bound). The trigger conditions and target prices of the three scenarios strictly follow the key-level definitions in the first half, with no new independent support or resistance levels added, ensuring consistency and continuity of the analysis.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Trading strategies and risk management strictly cite the established strategies and risk-conversion rules, as follows: verbatim citation of the two established long plans: Plan 1: Long, entry 2355 / stop-loss 2305 / target 2430 / horizon 1-5d / risk-reward 1:1.5; Plan 2: Long, entry 2340 / stop-loss 2287.4 / target 2418.9 / horizon 1-5d / risk-reward 1:1.5. The basis for the stop-loss settings is: Plan 1's stop-loss distance of CNY 50 corresponds to 1.05x ATR (ATR14 is CNY 47.786), and Plan 2's stop-loss distance of CNY 52.6 corresponds to 1.1x ATR, both able to cover normal intraday volatility and avoid stop-outs from short-term noise; on position sizing, the single-trade risk budget for both plans is CNY 6,698, corresponding to a reference cap of 12 lots, and add/reduce rules must strictly follow risk-control requirements, with no discretionary adjustment of lot size or position scale; the horizon is set at 1-5 days to match the short-term trend's volatility cycle, ensuring the strategy's timeliness and effectiveness.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

This week's data calendar (Beijing time) lists only core events related to rapeseed meal: on October 14 at 09:30 (Beijing), China's October CPI y/y and PPI y/y will be released; this event affects black, nonferrous, and chemical varieties, indirectly transmitting to rapeseed meal demand expectations for protein feed, so market reaction after the data release requires close attention.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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