📅 2026-10-09 · Rapeseed · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE.RS (Rapeseed) In-depth Analysis | Bearish Bias Under 99th Percentile Open Interest | 2026-10-09

Directional conclusion: bearish. CZCE.RS rapeseed settled at 5419 on 10-08, with 5-day -1.78% and 20-day +4.29%; the 20-day channel position is only 8.1%, with price hugging the lower band. Main open interest of 15831 (-886) has fallen back from the one-year 99th percentile; the decline on falling open interest points to active long liquidation rather than short covering. Fundamentals lack verifiable inventory, warehouse receipt, and basis data to support the move, so the sustainability of the 20-day gain is questionable. Cross-asset, the copper/gold ratio of 1.58 sits at the 1Y percentile of 96.83% and the oil/gold ratio of 0.022 at the 1Y percentile of 92.06%, implying strong growth and inflation expectations but no direct bullish transmission to rapeseed. Invalidation conditions: settlement price effectively breaks above the 20-day channel upper band at 5855, or open interest rebuilds on top of 15831 with a price breakout above 5449.33 (R1).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Bias: Bearish. Three core reasons:

First, the price structure is weak. Settlement on 10-08 at 5419, 5-day -1.78%, 20-day +4.29%, but the 20-day channel position is only 8.1% (range 5385–5855), i.e. the 20-day gain has been retraced to near the lower bound of the range; the last five daily settlements have stepped down from 5486 on 09-24 to 5423 on 10-08, with diminishing rebound momentum.

Second, the positioning structure is turning. Main contract open interest 15831 (-886); the trigger condition for this issue was open interest at the 99th percentile of the past year, while the latest session saw a marked open interest cut with prices edging higher (+0.17%) over the same period — a rise on falling open interest, which in character is closer to longs actively exiting than to new shorts entering; the marginal support from elevated positioning is weakening.

Third, there is no incremental bullish catalyst from either fundamentals or cross-asset. On the cross-asset side, the copper-gold ratio at 1.58 (1Y percentile 96.83%) and the oil-gold ratio at 0.022 (1Y percentile 92.06%) reflect macro growth and inflation expectations, with no direct transmission to rapeseed.

Invalidation conditions: settlement effectively above the 20-day channel upper bound of 5855, or open interest rebuilding from 15831 with price breaking pivot R1 at 5449.33. Until then, the bearish bias stands.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Based on the 10-08 settlement: settlement 5419, close 5423, +0.17% versus the prior settlement. On range performance, 5-day -1.78% and 20-day +4.29% point in opposite directions, indicating that the 20-day gain came mainly from an earlier leg higher, with the past week turning to retracement.

Channel and position: the 20-day range is 5385–5855, and the current settlement of 5419 sits at the 8.1% percentile of the range, i.e. hugging the lower bound. The last five daily settlements in sequence: 09-24 close 5486 (high 5552 / low 5485), 09-28 close 5450 (high 5494 / low 5445), 09-29 close 5385 (high 5446 / low 5385), 09-30 close 5414 (high 5423 / low 5400), 10-08 close 5423 (high 5445 / low 5388). The 09-29 low of 5385 coincides with the 20-day lower bound of 5385, forming the most immediate horizontal support reference; above, 5445–5494 is the dense trading zone of the past two weeks.

Volatility: ATR14 is 97.64, about 1.8% of the settlement price (full intraday range basis); RV20 is 42.7%. Measured by ATR, pivot P at 5418.67 nearly coincides with the settlement of 5419, R1 at 5449.33 is only about 30 points from settlement and S1 at 5392.33 about 27 points; both are less than half an ATR (about 49 points) from the current price, so R1/S1 do not constitute effective trading levels and are for intraday reference only. The truly meaningful boundaries are the 20-day lower bound of 5385 and upper bound of 5855.

Weekly basis: the last completed weekly bar is 2026-09-28 to 09-30, open 5450, high 5494, low 5385, close 5414, weekly change -1.31%, a bearish candle closing near the week's low, with the weekly center of gravity shifting lower. This week (only 1 trading session from 10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively reported at 5423 (+0.17%); no weekly conclusions are drawn from it.

Overall, with price at the lower bound of the 20-day range, the weekly center of gravity moving lower, and volatility neutral-to-high (RV20 42.7%), the technical picture leans toward weak consolidation; only a reclaim of the 5445–5494 dense zone and a challenge to 5855 would negate the weak structure.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

First, the price-open interest combination is currently the most verifiable fundamental signal. Settlement on 10-08 at 5419, +0.17% versus the prior settlement, while main contract open interest is 15831 (-886). In the absence of incremental inventory and warrant information, a modest price rise accompanied by a marked decline in open interest typically corresponds to existing longs reducing positions and exiting, rather than being driven by new buying. This means the 20-day gain of +4.29% lacks confirmation from open interest expansion, and its sustainability is weak.

Second, the 20-day channel position of 8.1% (range 5385–5855) shows the market has retraced most of the prior gain. If there were a substantive fundamental tightening (such as inventory drawdown or warrant cancellation), price would typically find support at the lower bound accompanied by a rebound in open interest; what is observed now is shrinking-volume open interest cuts near the lower bound, inconsistent with the characteristics of a “fundamentally driven rally.”

Third, on macro transmission, only the parts potentially relevant to this instrument are cited: US Dollar Index 102.12 (-0.12%) [2026-10-08], US 10-year Treasury yield 5.23% (-0.87%) [2026-10-08]. The dollar and US Treasury yields both edged lower, which in theory provides slight support to the cost side of USD-denominated agricultural products, but the magnitude is limited, and rapeseed pricing still hinges on its own supply-demand balance and China's crushing pace; macro variables are insufficient to change the direction.

Fourth, on the event front, the item in the next-7-day key calendar related to Chinese commodities is the CPI and PPI y/y release at 10-14 09:30 (neither consensus nor prior value is given), with the impact tagged across black series, nonferrous metals and chemicals, and not pointing directly at rapeseed. In the absence of consensus values, no directional call is made on this data.

Conclusion: fundamentals lack verifiable incremental bullish catalysts, the price rise lacks dual confirmation from open interest and inventory data, and the supply-demand side does not support building a long thesis near the current 5419.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Total open interest: main contract open interest 15831, down 886 from the prior value. The trigger condition for this in-depth report was open interest at the 99th percentile of the past year, i.e. the absolute level of open interest remains in the historically high zone, but the latest session has already seen a marked decline, with elevated positioning beginning to loosen.

Assessment of the price-open interest combination: settlement on 10-08 at 5419, +0.17% versus the prior settlement, while open interest fell by 886 over the same period. By definition, rising price with falling open interest is a rise on open interest cut, in character short covering or long exit, rather than active long accumulation. Combined with the 5-day performance of -1.78%, the more reasonable interpretation is that earlier longs are gradually taking profit after the 20-day gain (+4.29%), rather than new capital entering to go long. It must be emphasized that rising price accompanied by rising open interest is the signal of active buying; the current combination does not constitute that signal.

Volatility structure: ATR14 is 97.64 (about 1.8% of the settlement price, full intraday range basis), RV20 is 42.7%. What can be confirmed is that 20-day realized volatility is at a relatively high level, and together with price hugging the lower bound of the 20-day range (position 8.1%), this indicates that recent volatility has been contributed mainly by downside retracement.

Fund flow conclusion: with open interest falling back from the 99th percentile of the past year, and the decline occurring against a backdrop of modestly higher prices, the marginal direction of fund flows is skewed to outflow. This structure is unfavorable for longs and is consistent with the bearish conclusion in Section I. Going forward, the key is to track whether open interest can re-expand above 15831 — if open interest rebounds and price stands above 5449.33 (R1) and further challenges 5494, the positioning-structure assessment would need to be revised.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value and Global vs China Markets

This section cites only the values and percentiles from the cross-asset relative value snapshot (as-of 2026-10-08); no ratios are recalculated.

Copper/Gold: 1.58, 1Y percentile 96.83%, 3Y percentile 56.61%. The ratio sits at an extremely high one-year percentile, reflecting copper's relative strength versus gold and typically corresponding to firm growth expectations. For rapeseed, this signal transmits indirectly via macro risk appetite and does not constitute a direct bullish or bearish factor.

Oil/Gold: 0.022, 1Y percentile 92.06%, 3Y percentile 47.88%. Crude oil is likewise at a high one-year percentile versus gold, pointing to stronger energy-side inflation expectations.

Gold/Silver: 69.95, 1Y percentile 80.16%, 3Y percentile 26.72%. The high one-year percentile combined with the low three-year percentile indicates silver has been relatively stronger versus gold over the longer cycle, while gold has outperformed over the past year. This ratio has no direct transmission channel to rapeseed and is recorded purely as a macro state indicator.

Other macro references: DXY 102.11, 10Y 5.23%, VIX 15.41, GVZ 22.68, OVX 48.4 [2026-10-08]. The dollar and UST yields eased slightly on the day (DXY -0.12%, ^TNX -0.87%), and the risk appetite gauge VIX 15.41 sits at a low level; the overall macro backdrop is mild, providing neither significant headwinds nor tailwinds for agricultural products. The Crack 3:2:1 spread stands at USD 69.72/bbl [2026-10-08], a refinery margin metric with no direct relative-value relationship to rapeseed.

Synthesis: the cross-asset complex points to firm growth and inflation expectations, but both transmit only through indirect channels and cannot provide directional support for rapeseed; the directional call should revert to rapeseed's own price structure and positioning changes, i.e. the bearish conclusion in Section I.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

The only verifiable statistical facts come from the market snapshot: the last closed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 09-30) opened at 5450, high 5494, low 5385, close 5414, with a weekly change of -1.31%, a bearish candle closing near the weekly low; the last five daily settlement prices have stepped down from 5486 on 09-24 to 5423 on 10-08, with the center of gravity continuing to drift lower. The 20-day range is 5385–5855, and the current settlement of 5419 sits at the 8.1% percentile of the range, i.e. hugging the lower bound.

Volatility statistics: ATR14 is 97.64 (about 1.8% of the settlement price, full intraday range basis), RV20 is 42.7%, with 20-day realized volatility at an elevated level. In the absence of seasonal win-rate and median move data, no quantitative judgment is made on October's historical directional bias; the directional conclusion remains anchored to the price structure and positioning structure in Section I.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): bearish. Trigger: price remains in weak consolidation near the 20-day lower bound of 5385, and main contract open interest does not expand further above 15831. Targets: 5385 in turn (20-day lower bound, coinciding with the 09-29 low), then 5230 (the defined strategy target). Corresponding action: execute the short per Section VIII, stop-loss 5525. The core rationale is identical to Section I — the 20-day channel position is only 8.1%, the 5-day change is -1.78%, and open interest has fallen 886 lots from its one-year 99th percentile; a rally on open interest cuts does not constitute an active buying signal.

Bullish scenario (probability 25%): trigger is a settlement price effectively above the 20-day channel upper bound of 5855, or open interest rebuilding from 15831 with price breaking pivot R1 5449.33. Targets: 5494 (upper edge of the recent two-week dense band), then a further challenge of 5855. Corresponding action: if either invalidation condition is met, close the short and exit; do not reverse into a long, and wait for confirmation within the 5494–5855 zone.

Bearish scenario (probability 15%): trigger is an effective break below 5385 (20-day lower bound and 09-29 low), accompanied by open interest either declining further from 15831 or turning to a build on the downside. Targets: 5230 and lower. Corresponding action: after the break of 5385, hold the short and move the stop-loss down toward entry cost, with the target maintained at 5230.

The three scenario probabilities sum to 100%. The base case is consistent with the bearish conclusion in Section I, and the invalidation conditions are written identically to Section I: settlement price effectively above the 20-day channel upper bound 5855, or open interest rebuilding from 15831 with price breaking pivot R1 5449.33. R1 5449.33 and S1 5392.33 are both less than half an ATR (about 49 points) from settlement and are for intraday reference only, not standalone trade triggers.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Defined strategy (passed risk-control validation): short, entry 5423, stop-loss 5525, target 5230, horizon 1-5d, risk/reward 1:1.9.

Stop-loss rationale: the stop at 5525 sits above the recent two-week dense trading band of 5445–5494 and also above pivot R1 5449.33; if price reaches this level, the weak consolidation structure has been negated, consistent in direction with the “break of pivot R1 5449.33” invalidation condition in Section I. Risk conversion: the stop distance is 102, equal to 1.04×ATR (ATR14 97.643); contract multiplier 10, risk per lot 1,050 CNY (including fees and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of 6,698 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 6 lots.

Position sizing and add/trim rules: build to the reference cap of 6 lots and do not exceed it. If price runs toward 5385 and open interest does not expand above 15831, hold to the target of 5230; if price repeatedly fails to effectively break below 5385, trim to half the reference cap. If the settlement price effectively moves above 5855, or open interest rebuilds from 15831 with price breaking 5449.33, close the short unconditionally without waiting for the stop level. If neither target nor stop is hit within the 1-5d horizon, close on a time stop.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time 10-14 09:30 (U.S. Eastern 10-13 21:30): China CPI YoY and PPI YoY are released; no consensus or prior values are given, and the impact tags cover black series, nonferrous metals and chemicals, without pointing directly at rapeseed. In the absence of consensus values, no directional call is made on this release; it is flagged only as an event window for position management.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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