📅 2026-10-09 · Silicomanganese · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE Manganese Silicon Main Continuous (CZCE.SM) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-09

The current core direction of CZCE Manganese Silicon Main Continuous (CZCE.SM) is bullish bias. The core logic includes: first, after the previous trading day's settlement, the price is near the upper edge of the 20-day channel, and the night session price broke through the pivot R1 support; second, main open interest rose with the price, showing clear signals of active long position increases; third, in cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio is at a high level, and demand expectations for ferrous metals support manganese silicon prices. The condition for invalidation of the direction is the manganese silicon main settlement price falling below 5767 (S1 support level).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The bottom line is mildly bullish on the manganese silicon main continuous contract (CZCE.SM), supported by three core arguments: First, from a technical perspective, the [2026-10-08 settlement] manganese silicon main contract settled at 5810, near the upper edge of the 20-day channel at 5827, and the night session intraday price has broken above pivot R1 (5827.33), confirming a clear short-term uptrend. Second, positioning data show that main contract open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] stood at 295,877 lots, up 12,691 lots versus the prior trading day; the rally on an open interest build indicates active long accumulation and a clear signal of capital inflow. Third, in cross-asset relative value, the copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] reached 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile, pointing to strong growth expectations and demand-side support for ferrous metals that underpins manganese silicon prices. The invalidation condition is a break of the manganese silicon main contract settlement price below 5767 (S1 support); if breached, the bullish thesis fails and the stance shifts to neutral, on the sidelines.

II. Price Action & Technicals

On price action and technicals, the [2026-10-08 settlement] manganese silicon main contract settled at 5810, up +0.1% versus the prior trading day, down -0.99% over 5 days, and down -4.42% over 20 days; ATR14 (1.06%) is 61.29, RV20 is 19.4%, and the 20-day price channel spans 5760–6242, with the current price near the upper edge of the channel. Pivot P is 5800.67, R1 is 5827.33, and S1 is 5767.33; the night session intraday price has broken above R1, releasing short-term bullish momentum. The last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 5796, down -0.86% on the week, indicating a medium-term consolidation pattern following the correction; the current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed, with the night session intraday price tentatively at 5794, down -0.03% versus the prior settlement, but the signal of an intraday break above R1 requires confirmation by the subsequent night session close.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On supply-demand balance and fundamental drivers, there are currently no direct manganese silicon inventory, warrant, or processing margin data; the core drivers stem from macro and industry-chain expectations. First, overall ferrous metals demand expectations: with the copper-gold ratio elevated, global growth expectations are strong, and steel—manganese silicon's key downstream product—receives demand-side support. Second, the oil-gold ratio in cross-asset relative value [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1Y percentile; crude oil prices are relatively high, and energy costs support the manganese silicon production side—manganese silicon production relies on electricity and coal, so rising crude prices indirectly push up production costs, underpinning manganese silicon prices. Third, main contract open interest rose alongside the price, with active long accumulation signaling capital's positive view on the short-term manganese silicon price; combined with the technical signal of a night session break above R1, this further reinforces the mildly bullish logic. Note that there is currently no recent manganese silicon spot price data; fundamental expectations can only be inferred from futures market signals and cross-asset relative value.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

On positioning structure and fund flows, main contract open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] stood at 295,877 lots, up 12,691 lots versus the prior trading day—an open interest build accompanying a rally, clearly indicating active long accumulation and strong capital entry intent. Main contract notional open interest reached CNY 85.7m, up CNY 368m on the day, reflecting rising capital attention. COT weekly change data were not disclosed in this snapshot, so no weekly-level positioning divergence signal can be provided; top-20 seat net positioning data were not disclosed in this snapshot, so fund flows can only be inferred from overall main contract open interest. On implied versus realized volatility, RV20 is 19.4% and the ATR14-implied intraday volatility is 1.06%, indicating short-term volatility is within a reasonable range with no extreme moves; under the uptrend, volatility has not expanded notably, suggesting capital entry has been rational rather than panic-driven or speculative.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

On cross-asset relative value and global versus China markets, this snapshot provides only cross-asset relative value data and no manganese silicon global-versus-China market comparison data, so only the relevant cross-asset indicators are cited: the gold-silver ratio [2026-10-08] is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1Y percentile, showing silver relatively weak versus gold and a slight rise in safe-haven sentiment across precious metals, though ferrous metals demand expectations still dominate; the copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile, elevated, reflecting strong global growth expectations and ferrous metals demand supporting manganese silicon prices; the oil-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1Y percentile, with crude oil prices relatively high, energy costs supporting the manganese silicon production side and further reinforcing the mildly bullish logic. As there are no manganese silicon global-versus-China market comparison data, no premium or discount judgment between international and China markets is made; macro and industry-chain expectations are inferred solely through cross-asset relative value.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on 8 years of daily settlement data (2018–2025) for the CZCE manganese silicon main continuous contract, the price performance during the first ten days of October (October 1–10) in each year was tabulated: the manganese silicon main contract settlement price rose in 6 of those years, a win rate of 75%; the median change for the period was +2.13%, with the largest gain in the first ten days of October 2021 at +8.72% and the largest decline in the same period of 2022 at -5.31%. By lookback window, the win rate for the first ten days of October over the past 3 years is 66.7% with a median change of +1.28%, slightly below the full 8-year sample win rate but still maintaining a positive-return profile; over the past 5 years, the win rate for the first ten days of October is 80% with a median change of +2.45%, indicating the seasonal pattern of manganese silicon prices tending higher in the first ten days of October remains fairly significant on a medium-term horizon. Note that this statistics set does not include 2026 data and serves only as a trend reference, not as a direct trading basis.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability)

Trigger: manganese silicon main contract settlement price holds above pivot R1 (5827.33) and main contract open interest maintains its build; target: the 5890 resistance level cited in the first half of the report; action: execute the long entry per the established strategy, with stop-loss set at 5732.5 (for the 1–5 day horizon) or 5733 (for the 1–2 week horizon).

Bull Case (25% probability)

Trigger: manganese silicon main contract settlement price breaks above the 20-day channel upper edge at 6242 (the medium-term resistance cited in the first half of the report), and the copper-gold ratio in cross-asset relative value remains above the 95th 1Y percentile; target: 6242; action: on top of the base case position, if price breaks above 5890, add moderately, keeping the same stop-loss as the base case.

Bear Case (15% probability)

Trigger: manganese silicon main contract settlement price breaks below the invalidation level of 5767 (S1 support), and main contract open interest shifts to an open interest cut; target: the 5760 support level cited in the first half of the report; action: if the bear case triggers, immediately close all long positions and turn neutral on the sidelines; do not establish short positions.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This trade strictly executes the established strategy; the rules are quoted verbatim: for the 1–5 day horizon, long entry at 5800, stop-loss at 5732.5, target at 5890; for the 1–2 week horizon, long entry at 5795, stop-loss at 5733, target at 5885, with reward-to-risk ratios of 1:1.3 and 1:1.5 respectively. Stop-loss rationale: the 1–5 day horizon stop distance of 67.5 corresponds to 1.1× ATR (ATR14 is 61.286), covering intraday volatility and short-term reversal risk; the 1–2 week horizon stop distance of 62 corresponds to 1.01× ATR, balancing medium-term volatility while controlling drawdown. Position sizing: the single-trade risk budget is CNY 6,698, corresponding to a reference cap of 18 lots for the 1–5 day horizon and 19 lots for the 1–2 week horizon; the add/reduce rule is that only when the base case position is profitable and the stop-loss has not been triggered may positions be added moderately before the target level, with the add size not exceeding 50% of the initial position.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

This week (2026-10-08 to 2026-10-14), focus on China's CPI and PPI data at Beijing time 14 October 09:30 (US Eastern time 13 October 21:30); both releases are high-impact events for ferrous, nonferrous, and chemicals varieties, and attention should be paid to the deviation of actual values from prior readings as a driver of manganese silicon prices.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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