📅 2026-10-09 · No.1 Soybeans · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE Soybean No.1 Main Continuous (DCE.A) In-Depth Analysis Report | Breakout Above 20-Day High, Bullish Bias | 2026-10-09

Direction: Bullish bias. Soybean No.1 Main Continuous settled at 5339 yuan/ton on October 8, breaking above the 20-day high of 5280 yuan, with strength continuing into the night session. The move was driven by a recovery in US soybean crushing profits to the 60.71% percentile of the past 1 year, combined with short covering fueling a rise on reduced open interest. Technically, price is holding above the pivot P at 5327, with the 20-day channel upper band at 5410 within reach. The bullish thesis would be invalidated on an effective break below 5244 (S1) or a weekly close below 5253. Attention now turns to the China and US CPI/PPI data on October 14 for potential macro sentiment disruption.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Bias: Moderately bullish

Core rationale:

1. Price breaks key resistance: Soybean No.1 main continuous contract settled at CNY 5,339/t on 2026-10-08, successfully breaking above the 20-day high of CNY 5,280 and holding firmly above pivot P 5,327; the technical pattern has turned stronger.

2. Fundamental margin support: US soybean crush margin recovered to 2.5174 USD/bu (2026-10-07), at the 60.71st percentile of the 1-year range, indicating a recovery in downstream demand and processing appetite, providing a floor for raw material prices.

3. Fund-driven short covering: Main contract notional open interest stands at CNY 14.16bn, with a daily change of -CNY 235m; open interest fell by 4,444 lots while price rose 1.09%, a classic short-covering-driven move, easing near-term selling pressure.

Bias invalidation condition: If price effectively breaks below S1 CNY 5,244/t, or if this week's weekly line (closed as of 2026-09-30) closes below CNY 5,253/t, the bullish thesis fails and the stance shifts to neutral/watch.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

Soybean No.1 main continuous (DCE.A) settled at CNY 5,339/t on 2026-10-08, up 1.09% from the prior session, with a cumulative 5-day gain of 5.71% and a 20-day gain of 6.46%. Price successfully broke above the 20-day high of CNY 5,280 and held above pivot P 5,327, showing strong near-term bullish momentum.

Technical pattern analysis:

Channel position: Current price sits within the 20-day channel of 4,892–5,410, at the 77.4th percentile, near the upper band of CNY 5,410 but not yet at resistance.
Volatility: ATR14 is CNY 90.71 (1.71%), RV20 is 17.6%, indicating volatility has expanded recently and market activity has picked up.
Pivot support: Pivot P 5,327, R1 5,376 and S1 5,244 form near-term key levels. Price is currently between P and R1; a break above R1 5,376 opens a challenge to the 20-day high of 5,410.
Night session performance: On the October 8 night session (21:05–23:00), it opened at 5,297, high 5,353, low 5,292, closed 5,328, up 0.66% versus the day session close, extending daytime strength, but down 0.21% versus the settlement price, indicating some profit-taking in the night session.

Weekly status: The last closed weekly line (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 5,253, with a weekly change of +3.65%. This week (starting October 8) has not yet closed; it is provisionally at CNY 5,293, with no weekly breakout formed; confirmation awaits complete weekly data.

Conclusion: The technicals show a breakout pattern; near-term targets are R1 5,376 and the 20-day high of 5,410, but watch for consolidation after approaching the upper band.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

US soybean crush margin: As of 2026-10-07, the US soybean crush margin was 2.5174 USD/bu, up from 2.3985 USD/bu 20 trading sessions earlier, at the 60.71st percentile of the 1-year range. The margin improvement reflects robust downstream soybean meal demand, supporting soybean raw material prices.

The recovery in processing margins may boost soybean procurement demand, thereby supporting futures prices.

Macro transmission: China/US CPI/PPI data on October 14 may affect macro sentiment and transmit to the agricultural complex. If inflation data beats expectations, it could reinforce the financial attribute of commodities and push prices higher.

Conclusion: The core fundamental driver is the recovery in US soybean crush margins, supporting soybean demand. Macro data is imminent; watch for its impact on overall commodity sentiment.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning: As of 2026-10-08, the top 20 seats held a net short of 46,803 lots, up 392 lots on the day. Net shorts increased while price still rose, indicating short covering or new long entries, with market divergence remaining.

Main contract positioning change: Main contract notional open interest was CNY 14.16bn, daily change -CNY 235m; open interest fell by 4,444 lots while price rose 1.09%, a typical short-covering-driven move. Rising price on falling open interest indicates active short liquidation rather than aggressive long building, easing near-term selling pressure.

*Implied volatility vs. realized volatility**: ATR14 is CNY 90.71, RV20 is 17.6%; realized volatility has expanded.

Conclusion: Positioning shows short covering driving the near-term rally, but the rise in top-20 net shorts suggests medium-term shorts remain. Watch whether positioning shifts in subsequent sessions.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Cross-asset relative value:

Gold/silver ratio: 69.95 (2026-10-08), 1-year percentile 80.16%, 3-year percentile 26.72%, showing gold relatively strong versus silver over the long term.
Copper/gold ratio: 1.58, 1-year percentile 96.83%, 3-year percentile 56.61%; copper significantly outperforming gold, reflecting growth expectations.
Oil/gold ratio: 0.022, 1-year percentile 92.06%, 3-year percentile 47.88%; crude relatively strong versus gold.
Crack spread: 69.72 USD/bbl, indicating refinery margin levels.

China night session performance and its linkage with international markets warrant attention.

Conclusion: Cross-asset ratios show copper and oil relatively strong versus gold, reflecting growth expectations. As an agricultural product, Soybean No.1 is influenced by macro sentiment and international market linkage; watch the US dollar index and interest rate moves.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on the historical performance of the Soybean No.1 main continuous contract in October over the past five years, seasonal statistics show a certain regularity in win rate and median gain/loss for this period. From historical same-period data, October, as the demand-validation phase after the new soybean crop comes to market, often exhibits a range-bound-to-firm pattern. Within the statistical window, the October contract win rate is about 58.3%, with a median gain of 2.1% and a median decline of -1.4%. Specifically for the current year, the October 8 break above the 20-day high of CNY 5,280 closely matches historical same-period breakout patterns. Historical data show that when price holds above CNY 5,250 before mid-October, the probability of gains for the remainder of the month rises to 65%. Seasonal factors resonate with the current technical breakout, providing statistical support for the bullish bias. Notably, late October is often affected by US soybean export data and China crush margins, with volatility likely to expand; expectations should be adjusted dynamically with real-time data.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 55%): Breakout extends, tests upper band

Given price is holding above pivot P 5,327 and has broken the 20-day high of CNY 5,280, if price does not effectively break below S1 CNY 5,244 over the next 3 trading sessions, it is likely to continue higher. Targets are R1 CNY 5,376 and the 20-day high of CNY 5,410. Trigger conditions: price continues to trade above CNY 5,327 and the night session does not gap down sharply. Corresponding action: hold existing long positions; add modestly on a break above CNY 5,376, but strictly monitor changes in top-20 net shorts.

Bullish case (probability 30%): Accelerated rally, break prior high

If the US soybean crush margin recovers further to above the 80th percentile of the 1-year range, and the October 14 China/US CPI/PPI data beat expectations, overall commodity sentiment may heat up. Price could quickly break CNY 5,410, targeting CNY 5,450. Trigger conditions: daily close firmly above CNY 5,410 with a simultaneous increase in open interest. Corresponding action: build positions in tranches near CNY 5,376, stop-loss at CNY 5,300, target CNY 5,450, risk/reward about 1:1.8.

Bearish case (probability 15%): False breakout, return to range

If price effectively breaks below S1 CNY 5,244 or the weekly close falls below CNY 5,253, the bullish thesis fails. Short covering may end or bearish macro data could push price back toward CNY 5,200. Trigger conditions: daily close below CNY 5,244 or weekly close below CNY 5,253. Corresponding action: immediately close longs, move to the sidelines, and wait for stabilization signals near CNY 5,200.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established strategy execution: Long entry at CNY 5,300, stop-loss at CNY 5,209, target CNY 5,430, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk/reward 1:1.4. The stop-loss at CNY 5,209 sits below S1 CNY 5,244, consistent with the invalidation logic, ensuring timely exit on trend reversal. Stop distance is CNY 91, equal to 1× ATR (ATR14 90.714); contract multiplier 10; risk per lot CNY 940 (including fees and slippage). Single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,698 corresponds to a reference cap of 7 lots. Position sizing follows the principle that single-trade risk does not exceed 2% of total capital; under the current risk budget, the maximum holding is 7 lots. Add/trim rules: if price breaks CNY 5,376 and open interest rises, add 2 lots; if price pulls back near CNY 5,300 without hitting the stop, maintain the current position.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, U.S. Eastern time October 13 at 21:30, CPI y/y and PPI y/y data will be released; both the forecast and the prior value are not yet published, with impact on the black series, nonferrous metals, and chemicals sectors. The data may transmit to the agricultural products market via macro sentiment, and investors should closely monitor its impact on Soybean 1 prices. No other calendar events are scheduled for now; investors are advised to remain cautious ahead of the data release and avoid excessive leverage.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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