📅 2026-10-09 · Coke · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Coke (DCE.J) In-depth Analysis Report | Short-side active position increase, target 1924 | 2026-10-09

Coke (DCE.J) short-term direction is bearish, with the core driver being active short-side position increases and weakening fundamentals expectations. As of the 2026-10-08 settlement, the main contract price is 1961.5 yuan/ton, down 10.47% cumulatively over 20 days, sitting at the 10.4% position of the 20-day channel. The night session continued weakness; although the top 20 seats' net long positions increased by 30 lots to 4506 lots, the main nominal open interest surged by 309 million yuan to 9.32 billion yuan, indicating significant signs of active short-side position increases. Technically, the price broke below pivot P1957, with the first support level S1 at 1924; an effective break below would open up downside space. The invalidation condition for the direction is the price re-establishing itself above 1986 (R1) or a volume-backed break above the 2000 level in the night session.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Coke (DCE.J) has a clearly bearish short-term directional bias. The core logic rests on three points: First, fund flows show active short open interest build; as of the 2026-10-08 settlement, main contract notional open interest rose to CNY 9.32bn, up CNY 309m on the day, while price fell 0.18% — a typical open-interest-build decline pattern, indicating shorts dominate the tape. Second, the technical structure has broken, with price breaking below pivot P1957 and sitting at the 10.4% position of the 20-day channel; the first support below is S1 at 1924, a bearish technical formation. Third, fundamentals are weakening; although the night session closed marginally higher, the overall market remains in a weak zone with a 20-day decline of 10.47%, and the weekly chart (as of 2026-09-30) has closed lower, with this week not yet closed but continuing to probe lower intraday.

Direction-invalidation conditions: If price re-establishes firmly above 1986 (R1), or the night session breaks above the 2000 level on rising volume, the bearish thesis is falsified and the market would shift to range-bound or bullish. What warrants caution now is that although top-20 seat net long positions rose to 4,506 lots, this cannot offset the momentum of the main contract's open-interest-build decline; short covering may trigger a near-term rebound, but the trend remains unchanged.

II. Price Action & Technicals

As of the 2026-10-08 settlement, the coke main contract price was CNY 1,961.5/t, down 0.18% from the prior day, down 0.79% over 5 days, and down a cumulative 10.47% over 20 days. The night session (10-08 21:05–23:00) opened at 1961.5, with a high of 1985, a low of 1945.5, and a close of 1954 — up 0.05% versus the day session close, but down 0.38% versus the settlement price, showing a lackluster night-session rebound. Technically, ATR14 is 51.11 (2.62%) and RV20 is 27%, with volatility at a moderate level. The 20-day channel spans 1923–2210.5, and the current price sits at the 10.4% position of the channel, near the support zone. Pivot P is 1957, R1 is 1986, and S1 is 1924; price has broken below pivot P, with the first support at S1 1924 — an effective break would open further downside.

On the weekly chart, the closed week as of 2026-09-30 (2026-09-28–2026-09-30) finished lower, with a weekly change of -0.81%; this week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively at 1953 (-0.28%) — do not draw weekly conclusions from this. The last 5 settlement days show price retreating from the 09-24 high of 1974.5, falling consecutively from 09-28 to 10-08, with the 09-28 low at 1923 and the 10-08 low at 1928 — lows are gradually moving down. The current price sits at the lower end of the 20-day channel; a break below 1924 could see a further probe toward 1900. Technically, the bearish trend is clear, and only a rebound above 1986 could reverse it.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Coke's fundamental drivers are primarily influenced by steel industry chain demand expectations. As of 2026-10-08, coke inventory data was not directly provided, but given steel industry seasonality, the market is in the traditional off-season with relatively soft demand. There were no major positive China-related headlines in the past 48 hours, and market sentiment is bearish. On the macro front, the next 7-day key calendar shows CPI and PPI data due on 10-14, which may affect overall black-series sentiment, though the direct near-term impact on coke is limited. On supply-demand balance, as a key raw material for steel production, coke demand is highly correlated with Rebar and Iron Ore.

Overall, fundamental drivers are bearish: demand expectations are weakening, and supply may contract due to margin compression, but this is unlikely to reverse the trend in the near term.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning data shows that as of 2026-10-08, the coke main contract net long position was 4,506 lots, up 30 lots on the day. However, main contract notional open interest rose to CNY 9.32bn, up CNY 309m on the day, while price fell 0.18%, indicating significant signs of active short open interest build. This open-interest-build decline pattern shows shorts dominating the tape; longs added modestly but could not offset short pressure. On COT weekly change versus price divergence, the weekly chart (as of 2026-09-30) shows price down with open interest up, indicating active short open interest build. The nature of main contract positioning changes is active short open interest build, with longs passively cutting or standing aside.

On implied versus realized volatility, ATR14 is 51.11 and RV20 is 27%, with volatility at a moderate level. Implied volatility was not directly provided, but the price decline accompanied by rising open interest may reflect rising market expectations for future volatility. On fund flows, although top-20 seat net longs rose, the surge in main contract notional open interest shows intense capital contest; active short open interest build may bring a near-term rebound, but the trend is unchanged. Overall, the positioning structure is bearish, with active short open interest build the main driver, and longs should guard against further downside risk.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

On cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1Y percentile and 26.72% 3Y percentile, showing gold relatively strong versus silver. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile and 56.61% 3Y percentile, showing copper relatively strong versus gold. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1Y percentile and 47.88% 3Y percentile, showing crude oil relatively strong versus gold. The crack spread is 69.72 USD/bbl, reflecting refining margin levels. DXY is 102.11, the 10Y yield is 5.23%, VIX is 15.41, GVZ is 22.68, and OVX is 48.4, showing a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, and moderate market volatility.

On China instrument international versus China market premium, coke is a China instrument with no direct international market benchmark, though the black complex as a whole is influenced by macro expectations. The high copper/gold ratio reflects growth expectations, the high oil/gold ratio reflects energy prices relatively strong versus gold, and the high gold/silver ratio shows safe-haven sentiment. These relative value data indirectly affect black-complex sentiment, but coke itself has no direct international versus China market premium. Overall, cross-asset relative value shows a tight macro environment, a stronger dollar, and rising Treasury yields, which may weigh on commodities broadly; as a black-complex instrument, coke may be affected.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on historical statistics for the 20 trading days from the same date over the past 15 years, coke's quarterly performance in early October shows certain seasonal patterns. The data shows an average gain of +2.17% for this period, a median gain of +0.17%, and up years accounting for 8/15 years. This means that in the historical sample, more than half of the years saw gains during this period, with 2016 the strongest at +50.49% and 2021 the weakest at -17.24%.

However, the current market trend shows a significant divergence from historical seasonality. Although historical data shows this period is on average warm, as of 2026-10-08 coke price is in a weak zone with a 20-day decline of -10.47%, and the weekly chart (as of 2026-09-30) has closed lower. This divergence mainly stems from the current weakening macro expectations and the deterioration of the overall black-complex supply-demand structure. Historical seasonality serves only as background reference and cannot be used directly as a basis for current trading. In the absence of major positive drivers, the current price is more likely to continue the near-term bearish trend than to revert to the historical seasonal mean. Investors should be wary of potential rebound risk from seasonal factors, but should not treat them as a sufficient condition for a trend reversal.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): Bearish continuation, probing S1 support

Core logic: Fund flows show active short open interest build, technicals have broken pivot P1957, and fundamental demand expectations are weakening. If price maintains the current weakness, it is expected to test the first support at S1 1924. Strategy: Maintain short positions; if price rebounds and stalls near 1986 (R1), consider adding. Target: 1876.34. Invalidation: Price re-establishes firmly above 1986 (R1) or the night session breaks above the 2000 level on rising volume.

Bullish scenario (probability 20%): Technical rebound, testing R1 resistance

Trigger: Accelerated short covering, or better-than-expected macro data. If price rebounds quickly and holds above 1986 (R1), the bearish thesis is falsified and a technical rebound may begin. Strategy: Close shorts, try longs with a light position. Target: The 2000 level. Invalidation: After rebounding above 1986, price breaks back below and turns bearish again.

Bearish scenario (probability 20%): Accelerated decline, testing the 1900 round number

Trigger: Further deterioration on the demand side, or bearish macro data. If price effectively breaks below S1 1924, it may accelerate toward 1900. Strategy: Hold short positions; if 1924 breaks, consider adding. Target: 1900. Invalidation: Price re-establishes firmly above 1986 (R1) or the night session breaks above the 2000 level on rising volume.

Overall, the base case carries the highest probability and fits the current market structure. Investors should closely watch breaks of 1986 (R1) and the 2000 level as key signals for a trend reversal.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Execution Rules for Established Strategy

Entry: 1953
Stop-Loss: 2004.11
Target: 1876.34
Horizon: 1–2w
Risk/Reward: 1:1.5

Stop-Loss Logic & Position Sizing

The stop-loss is set at 2004.11, derived from 1× the ATR14 of 51.11, ensuring it is not easily triggered under normal market volatility. The stop distance is 51.11, corresponding to a per-lot risk of CNY 5,221 (including commissions and slippage). The single-trade risk budget is CNY 6,697, implying a reference cap of 1 lot. This setup is designed to cap the maximum loss per trade and avoid excessive risk exposure.

Rules for Adding & Reducing Positions

Add: If price effectively breaks below S1 at 1924, consider adding, with the add point referenced near 1920 and the stop-loss moved up to 1× ATR above the new entry.
Reduce: If price rebounds and stalls near 1986 (R1), cut 50% of the position and hold the remainder to the target.
Exit: Close all positions when the target of 1876.34 is reached or the stop-loss is triggered.

Risk Factors

Current market volatility is moderate (RV20 27%); be alert to gap risk from sudden news. If price re-establishes firmly above 1986 (R1) or breaks through the 2,000 level on heavy volume in the night session, close positions immediately and reassess market direction.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

All times are Beijing time; focus on the potential impact of CPI and PPI data on overall sentiment across the black complex.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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