📅 2026-10-09 · Japonica Rice · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE.RR (DCE.RR) In-depth Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-09

DCE.RR japonica rice futures are currently bullish. Core logic: First, the previous weekly candle closed positive and is near the upper edge of the 20-day channel, providing strong technical support. Second, main contract positions changed slightly but signs of active long-position increases have emerged. Third, in cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio is at a high level, and macro growth expectations provide indirect support to agricultural products. The invalidation condition is a break below the S1 support level of 3585.67 from the [2026-10-08 settlement].

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The core conclusion is a bullish bias on DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures, with the invalidation condition being a break below the pivot S1 support at 3585.67 (2026-10-08 settlement). The three core rationales are as follows: First, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 3618, with a weekly change of +0.25%, sitting in the upper region of the 20-day channel; the technical uptrend remains intact. Second, main-contract open interest [2026-10-08 settlement] stands at 23,272, down 145 versus the prior reading; this is an open interest cut dominated by short covering rather than active long liquidation, so bullish momentum persists. Third, in cross-asset relative value, the copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] reached 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile, indicating strong global growth expectations and providing indirect support to agricultural demand.

II. Price Action & Technicals

DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures settled at 3603 [2026-10-08 settlement], down -0.66% versus the prior settlement, down -0.3% over 5 days, and up +0.5% over 20 days. ATR14 [2026-10-08 settlement] is 12.64, with an intraday full-range share of 0.35%; RV20 is 3.3%, indicating recent volatility at a moderate level. The 20-day price channel spans 3573 to 3628, with the current price at the 41.8% position within the channel, having touched neither the upper nor the lower band. Pivot P [2026-10-08 settlement] is 3604.33, R1 is 3614.67, and S1 is 3585.67; the current settlement is slightly below pivot P, with 11.67 of room to R1 and 17.33 of room to S1. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 3618, a weekly gain of 0.25%; this week (from 2026-10-08) has only one trading session and has not yet closed. The night session is tentatively reported as closing at 3605 on 10-08, up +0.25% versus the day session close and up +0.06% versus settlement, with a small intraday range.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On the supply-demand balance, the core drivers of Japonica Rice futures revolve around inventories, basis, and processing margins. At the macro level, the copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] sits at a high 1Y percentile of 96.83%, indicating strong global economic growth expectations, which indirectly supports consumption demand for agricultural products, particularly the demand stability of staple-food varieties. In addition, over the next 7 days, focus is on China's CPI and PPI data on October 14; if the prints beat expectations, growth expectations will be further reinforced, providing support to Japonica Rice futures.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

On the implied-versus-realized volatility comparison, RV20 is 3.3% and the ATR14-implied intraday volatility is 0.35%, indicating that current implied volatility is within a reasonable range with no sharp moves, and market sentiment is relatively calm.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

The gold-silver ratio [2026-10-08] is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1Y percentile and the 26.72% 3Y percentile, a relatively high level over five years, showing silver is relatively weak versus gold. The copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1Y percentile and the 56.61% 3Y percentile, a 1-year high, indicating strong global growth expectations and support for commodities. The oil-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1Y percentile and the 47.88% 3Y percentile, a 1-year high, indicating strong crude demand expectations. At the macro level, the US Dollar Index [2026-10-08] is 102.11 and the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, both at relatively high levels, exerting some pressure on commodities; however, the elevated copper-gold ratio shows the growth-expectation support is stronger, so the pressure is relatively limited.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory

Historical statistics for DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures in October (main contract) show that across the 8 statistical cycles from 2018 to 2025, prices rose in 6 cycles, a win rate of 75.0%; the median October change is +0.82%, above the 12-month median monthly change anchor (+0.45%). By contract month, the main contracts (January, May, September) show an October win rate of 71.4% and a median change of +0.76%; non-main contracts show an October win rate of 80.0% and a median change of +0.91%. Main-contract seasonality is slightly weaker than non-main contracts, but the overall seasonal pattern remains bullish. Looking at October price action over the past five years, October 2021 rose +2.13% and October 2023 rose +1.27%, with only October 2022 posting a small decline of -0.58%; the certainty of a seasonal rise is strong, resonating with the current bullish core conclusion.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (65% probability)

Trigger: DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures settlement holds above pivot P (3604.33) and does not break below the 3585.67 invalidation support. Targets: short-term target is the R1 resistance at 3614.67 mentioned in the first half of the report; medium-term target is the 20-day channel upper band at 3628. Corresponding action: execute the defined 1-5 day long entry at 3598, stop-loss 3583.33, target 3617.5.

Bullish Case (25% probability)

Trigger: settlement breaks above the R1 resistance at 3614.67, with main-contract open interest maintaining net long or short covering continuing. Targets: short-term target is the 20-day channel upper band at 3628; medium-term target is 3650 (to be adjusted with subsequent supply-demand data). Corresponding action: add 1-2 lots on the break of R1, adjust stop-loss to 3600, target 3628.

Bearish Case (10% probability)

Trigger: settlement breaks below the pivot S1 support at 3585.67, or main-contract open interest shifts to active long liquidation. Targets: short-term target is the 20-day channel lower band at 3573; medium-term target is 3550. Corresponding action: close all long positions; if 3573 is breached, attempt a light short with stop-loss at 3585, target 3550.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Verbatim quote of the defined strategy: Long Entry 3598 / Stop-loss 3583.33 / Target 3617.5 / Horizon 1-5d / Risk-reward 1:1.3; Long Entry 3595 / Stop-loss 3581.09 / Target 3615.2 / Horizon 1-2w / Risk-reward 1:1.5. Stop-loss rationale: the first strategy's stop distance is 14.67, equivalent to 1.16× ATR (ATR14 is 12.64), within a reasonable volatility range that covers normal intraday fluctuation; the second strategy's stop distance is 13.91, equivalent to 1.1× ATR, balancing medium-term trend stability. Position sizing: single-trade risk budget is CNY 6,697, implying a reference cap of 37 lots for the first strategy and 39 lots for the second. Add/reduce rules: if the short-term target is achieved and main-contract open interest maintains short covering, add 10% on top of the first strategy; if the stop-loss is triggered, immediately close all positions.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30 (US Eastern time October 13 at 21:30) will see the release of China CPI y/y and PPI y/y data; the consensus is not disclosed, the prior reading is not disclosed, the affected sectors are ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, and the release will test the macro support logic for DCE.RR Japonica Rice futures.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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