📅 2026-10-09 · PVC · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE PVC Main Continuous (DCE.V) In-Depth Analysis | Rising on Increased Open Interest Meets Mid-Point of 20-Day Channel; Bullish but Upside Limited | 2026-10-09

Direction is bullish, but characterized as bullish within a range rather than a trend breakout. There are three core reasons: First, the 10-08 settlement price of 4904 rose 0.18% versus the previous settlement, with a cumulative 5-day gain of 3.04%, and main open interest increased by 13351 lots to 1055915 lots, while main notional open interest rose by 328 million yuan to 25.95 billion yuan, indicating a rise on increased open interest with active long positioning; Second, the 10-08 night session PVC closed at 4940, up another 0.51% versus the day session close and up 0.73% versus settlement, with the night session high of 4962 approaching pivot R1 at 4958.33, so short-term upward momentum remains; Third, price is at the 46.4% position of the 20-day channel of 4673–5194, not yet in the overbought zone, leaving room to move higher. Invalidation condition: If the settlement price effectively breaks below S1 at 4859.33 and further approaches the lower edge of the 20-day channel at 4673, the bullish thesis is void and the stance shifts to neutral wait-and-see.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Direction: Moderately bullish (bullish within a range, not a trend breakout).

Three core reasons:

First, volume-price alignment is positive. DCE.V PVC 10-08 settlement price 4904, up 0.18% versus the prior settlement; cumulative +3.04% over 5 days, cumulative +0.18% over 20 days. Over the same period, main-holder open interest increased by 13,351 lots to 1,055,915 lots, with main contract notional open interest of CNY 259.5 100m, a daily change of +CNY 3.28 100m. This is an open interest build on rising prices, classified as active long positioning rather than a short-covering-driven false rally.

Second, short-cycle momentum persists. In the 10-08 night session (21:05–23:00), PVC opened at 4908, high 4962, low 4895, closed 4940, up 0.51% versus the day session close and up 0.73% versus settlement. The night session high of 4962 has probed the pivot R1 4958.33 level, indicating that marginal buying remains after settlement.

Third, positioning is not yet extreme. Price sits at the 46.4th percentile of the 20-day channel of 4673–5194, having neither touched the upper band nor fallen back to the lower band. ATR14 is 124 (2.52% of the settlement price), RV20 is 29.4%, and volatility is in a neutral-to-elevated range, leaving tradable room to the upside.

Direction invalidation condition: If the settlement price effectively breaks below pivot S1 4859.33 and subsequently loses the 20-day channel lower band at 4673, the above bullish logic is void and the stance shifts to neutral/watch. On the upside, reference pivot R1 4958.33; its distance from the settlement price is about 54 points, less than half an ATR14 (62 points), so it is not an independent trade level but only a momentum observation point.

II. Price Action & Technicals

On a settlement basis, DCE.V PVC 10-08 settlement price 4904, close 4915, up 0.18% versus the prior settlement; cumulative +3.04% over 5 days, cumulative +0.18% over 20 days. The last five confirmed settlement daily candles are: 09-24 high 4825/low 4748/close 4798; 09-28 high 4832/low 4748/close 4773; 09-29 high 4850/low 4760/close 4844; 09-30 high 5004/low 4795/close 4999; 10-08 high 4946/low 4847/close 4915. The 09-30 high-volume long white candle pushed price from 4844 to 4999; although 10-08 eased slightly to 4915, it held above 4900 with limited retracement, a strong consolidation pattern.

Volatility: ATR14 is 124, or 2.52% of the settlement price (full intraday range basis); RV20 is 29.4%. Both point to a neutral-to-elevated volatility regime, with an effective single-day range of roughly 120 points, meaning the 4859–4958 pivot band can be covered within one trading day; short-term levels must be confirmed on settlement prices rather than intraday prints.

Channel and pivots: The 20-day channel is 4673–5194; the current settlement price of 4904 sits at the 46.4% position of that range, slightly below the midpoint. Pivot P is 4902.67, nearly coincident with the settlement price of 4904, indicating price is at the long/short equilibrium center; R1 is 4958.33 and S1 is 4859.33. Since R1 is about 54 points from the settlement price and S1 about 45 points, both less than half an ATR14 (62 points), R1/S1 do not constitute independent trade levels and serve only as observation boundaries for momentum strength.

Weekly basis: The last closed weekly candle ran 2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30, open 4808, high 5004, low 4748, close 4999, weekly change +4.19%, a full-bodied white candle closing near its weekly high, showing the last closed week was strong. This week (only 1 trading day from 10-08) has not closed; tentatively 4915, -1.68%. Per weekly discipline, no weekly-level conclusion is drawn from this.

Night session: In the 10-08 night session, PVC opened 4908, high 4962, low 4895, closed 4940, +0.51% versus the day session close and +0.73% versus settlement; the night session center of gravity moved higher overall, and the high of 4962 has crossed above R1 4958.33, short-term firm. Taken together, the technical conclusion is: settlement price holds above pivot P, the night session extended gains, but R1 overhead and the 20-day channel midpoint form the first resistance, so the bias is bullish with limited room.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Processing margin and cost pass-through: The data do not list PVC's own processing margin or the calcium carbide/ethylene cost curves, so no margin-side inference is made. What can be confirmed is that PVC, as a typical coal-chemical and calcium carbide chain product, has costs highly correlated with power, calcium carbide and lanthanite prices, while demand is directly tied to real estate completions, pipe and profile operating rates, and infrastructure orders.

The dollar index (DXY) is 102.12, daily change -0.12%. UST yields and the dollar eased slightly in tandem, providing mild support to USD-denominated commodity valuations overall; however, PVC is priced primarily on domestic demand, so international financial conditions transmit more through sentiment and overall commodity beta than through direct cost or demand shocks.

PPI, as the aggregate indicator of industrial goods prices, will influence market expectations for the overall price environment of the chemicals sector and is this week's macro event window to watch for PVC. Since neither the forecast nor the prior value is given, no quantitative judgment on the surprise direction can be made; it is flagged only as an event risk.

Supply-demand conclusion: In the absence of inventory, warehouse warrant, basis and processing margin data, fundamentals cannot independently support a directional call. The current bullish conclusion is driven mainly by volume-price and positioning structure, i.e. the open interest build on rising prices reflected in the 10-08 settlement price of 4904, +0.18%, cumulative +3.04% over 5 days, and the 13,351-lot increase in main-holder open interest. Should subsequent inventory data show an unexpected build or the basis weaken, this bullish assessment would need to be re-evaluated.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning change: DCE.V PVC main-holder open interest is 1,055,915 lots, up 13,351 lots versus the prior trading day; converted at the settlement price of 4904 and the contract multiplier, main contract notional open interest is CNY 259.5 100m, a daily change of +CNY 3.28 100m. Price rose 0.18% on the same day (settlement basis) with open interest rising in tandem, a volume-price relationship of open interest build on rising prices, classified as active long positioning rather than short covering. This is the core structural basis for the current bullish conclusion.

Note that the above notional open interest covers only the main contract and does not represent total capital sunk across the full product, so no inference about aggregate market capital can be drawn; it serves only as an observation of fund direction in the main contract.

Volatility structure: ATR14 is 124, or 2.52% of the settlement price; RV20 is 29.4%.

Price-fund divergence assessment: By definition, divergence requires sustained opposite movement between price and open interest. Currently price is rising (settlement +0.18%, 5-day +3.04%) alongside an open interest increase (+13,351 lots), a same-direction movement that does not constitute divergence but rather an active buying signal. Accordingly, this section records no divergence, only the fact of an open interest build on rising prices.

Overall, the positioning structure supports the bullish view: main-holder open interest build, rising price, and notional open interest value up CNY 3.28 100m on the day, all aligned in direction. However, note that the single-day build of 13,351 lots is about 1.26% of the existing 1,055,915 lots, a moderate build rather than aggressive adding, so the conclusion is set as moderately bullish within a range, not a trend-following bullish call.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Gold/Silver ratio is 69.95, 1-year percentile 80.16%, 3-year percentile 26.72%. The ratio sits at a high 1-year percentile and a low 3-year percentile, describing the current state and not implying future returns.

Copper/Gold ratio is 1.58, 1-year percentile 96.83%, 3-year percentile 56.61%; the Copper/Gold ratio is at an extremely high 1-year percentile, which by convention points to strong growth expectations and forms a mildly positive backdrop for overall industrial goods valuations.

Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, 1-year percentile 92.06%, 3-year percentile 47.88%, also at a high 1-year percentile.

Crack spread 3:2:1 is 69.72 USD/bbl.

Macro cross-check: DXY is 102.11, the 10-year UST yield 5.23%, VIX 15.41, GVZ 22.68, OVX 48.4. The modest decline in the dollar and UST yields (DXY -0.12%, ^TNX -0.87%), together with the high percentiles of the Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold ratios, constitute a cross-asset environment that is relatively friendly to industrial goods.

Transmission conclusion: Cross-asset relative value shows the Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold ratios both at high 1-year percentiles, reflecting a macro backdrop of strong growth and inflation expectations, which provides indirect sentiment support for PVC as a domestic-demand-driven chemical product but is not a direct driver. PVC's direction is still determined mainly by its own volume-price and positioning structure, i.e. the open interest build on rising prices reflected in the 10-08 settlement price of 4904, cumulative +3.04% over 5 days, and the 13,351-lot increase in main-holder open interest. No signal conflicting with the bullish conclusion has emerged at the cross-asset level.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

This section relies solely on the year-over-year win rate and median change contained in the seasonality statistics block; no other samples are introduced.

Judging by the historical win rate for the same period, in the window from early to mid-October, the share of years in which DCE.V PVC rose is slightly higher than the share of years in which it fell. The win rate sits just above 50% but does not reach a zone of significant edge, indicating a mildly bullish seasonal bias. On the median change, the same-period median move is positive but limited in magnitude, smaller than the current ATR14 (124 points, or 2.52% of the settlement price), which shows that the seasonal push on price is weaker than intraday volatility itself.

Cross-checking the seasonal conclusion against the directional view in Section I: the seasonal bias is bullish, consistent in direction with the current bullish conclusion, but the strength is insufficient to serve as a standalone trading basis and can only act as background corroboration. Should the settlement price break below pivot S1 at 4859.33 within the seasonal window, the historical statistics do not support adding longs against the trend; the invalidation conditions defined in Section I should apply.

A caveat is warranted: the seasonality statistics are based on same-period historical samples with a limited sample size and do not exclude years affected by macro events, so the win rate and median change are for reference only and do not constitute a forecast of this week's price path. This week (only one trading session since 10-08) has not yet closed; it is tentatively reported at 4915, -1.68%. Per weekly discipline, no weekly-level conclusion is drawn from this, and the seasonal assessment is likewise not adjusted on that basis.

On balance, the seasonal dimension provides a mildly bullish backdrop, aligned in direction with the bullish conclusions from volume-price and positioning structure, but it carries a lower weight than the latter.

VII. Scenario Analysis

The three scenarios below sum to a total probability of 100%. Trigger levels follow the pivot and channel definitions already set out in Sections I through V; no new key levels are created.

Base case (probability 55%): bullish within the range, directionally consistent with Section I. Trigger condition: settlement price holds firmly above pivot P at 4902.67 and does not effectively break below pivot S1 at 4859.33; on the upside, pivot R1 at 4958.33 serves as the momentum watch level, with a break opening the way toward the 20-day channel upper bound at 5194. Target price reference is 5150 (consistent with the established strategy target), corresponding to the upper half of the 20-day channel of 4673–5194. Corresponding action: hold longs per the Section VIII strategy, stop-loss at 4780, horizon 1-5d. The core rationale is the same as in Section I, namely the build-up-and-rise pattern of the 10-08 settlement price at 4904, the cumulative +3.04% over five sessions, and the 13,351-lot increase in main contract open interest, with the technicals as described in Section II holding above pivot P and the night session center of gravity moving higher.

Bullish case (probability 25%): trigger condition is an effective break and firm hold above pivot R1 at 4958.33, with main contract open interest continuing to rise and volume-price maintaining a build-up-and-rise structure. Target price looks to the 20-day channel upper bound at 5194, with further reference to upside above 5150. Corresponding action: handle within the position framework per the Section VIII add/reduce rules, with no separate entry price set; if price approaches the channel upper bound at 5194, note that this level is the 20-day channel boundary and a resistance reference, so chasing is not advisable.

Bearish case (probability 20%): trigger condition is an effective break below pivot S1 at 4859.33, followed by a further loss of the 20-day channel lower bound at 4673, i.e. the invalidation condition described in Section I is met. Corresponding action: the bullish logic is invalidated; shift to neutral and stand aside, executing per the Section VIII watch conditions, with no bullish positions held.

Probability allocation note: the base case carries the highest weight because current volume-price and positioning structure are aligned bullish and price sits at the 46.4th percentile of the 20-day channel, not at an extreme; the bullish case requires confirmation via a break of R1 at 4958.33, hence the next-highest probability; the bearish case requires consecutive breaks of S1 at 4859.33 and the channel lower bound at 4673, a higher trigger threshold, hence the lowest probability. All three scenarios are confirmed by the settlement price; intraday prices do not constitute a trigger.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established strategy (passed risk-control validation, quoted verbatim): Long / Entry 4915 / Stop-loss 4780 / Target 5150 / Horizon 1-5d / Risk-reward 1:1.7.

Stop-loss placement: the stop at 4780 sits between pivot S1 at 4859.33 and the 20-day channel lower bound at 4673, i.e. placed below the first invalidation level S1 and above the second invalidation level at 4673. The reason for this treatment is that Section I defines the invalidation condition as an effective break below S1 at 4859.33 followed by a further approach to 4673; placing the stop at 4780 between the two defensive lines allows an exit after S1 is breached but before the channel lower bound is lost, avoiding a passive stop near 4673.

Stop distance and sizing: on a risk-conversion basis, the stop distance is 135, equal to 1.09× ATR (ATR14 124), contract multiplier 5, risk per lot 695 CNY (including fees and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of 6,697 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 9 lots. All figures are quoted directly from the risk conversion and are not independently recalculated.

Add/reduce rules: in the base case, hold within the reference cap, horizon 1-5d. If the settlement price effectively breaks and holds above pivot R1 at 4958.33, treat per the bullish case and adjust within the established position framework, with no separate entry price set; if the settlement price effectively breaks below pivot S1 at 4859.33, reduce or exit and stand aside, awaiting a re-establishment above P at 4902.67 before reassessing.

Watch conditions and re-entry: if the settlement price effectively breaks below S1 at 4859.33 and further approaches the 20-day channel lower bound at 4673, the bullish logic is invalidated; shift to neutral and stand aside with no bullish positions held. The re-entry trigger is the settlement price re-establishing firmly above pivot P at 4902.67, together with a restoration of the build-up-and-rise volume-price structure.

Risk note: ATR14 is 124 and RV20 is 29.4%, with volatility neutral-to-slightly-high; the effective single-day move is on the order of about 120 points, and the 135-point stop corresponds to roughly 1.09× ATR, a width matched to current volatility. Should volatility expand further, position sizing must be re-validated per risk-control rules.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

The two items above are macro event windows this week directly related to PVC. As a headline indicator of industrial goods prices, the PPI release will influence market expectations for the price environment in the chemicals sector. Since neither the forecast nor the prior value is provided, no quantitative judgment on the surprise direction can be made; this is flagged as event risk only.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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