📅 2026-10-09 · Polysilicon · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

GFEX Polysilicon Main Continuous (GFEX.PS) In-Depth Analysis Report | Position-Cut Pullback, Bearish to S1 | 2026-10-09

Direction: bearish. Polysilicon Main Continuous (GFEX.PS) faced resistance at 36510 yuan/ton at the [2026-10-08 settlement], with a 5-day decline of 2.04% and a 20-day decline of 1.53%, indicating weakening short-term momentum. The current price is above the 20-day channel lower band of 35340 yuan but near the 31.5% percentile, and the night session continued to probe down to 36335 yuan, combined with a 360 million yuan reduction in main nominal open interest, indicating active long exit. Technically, the price broke below pivot P 36491.67, with the first support S1 36103.33 less than half an ATR below; a valid break would accelerate the downside. Fundamentals show no major negative, but the divergence between capital flow and price is intensifying; watch the hold/loss of S1, with the invalidation condition being a firm stand above 36723.33 (R1).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Bias: Bearish

Based on [2026-10-08 settlement] data, GFEX Polysilicon main contract continuous (GFEX.PS) is exhibiting a typical open-interest-cut decline. Core logic:

1. Flow-driven pullback: Main contract notional open interest has retreated from elevated levels, down CNY 360m on the day, corresponding to a reduction of 3,301 lots. The price decline accompanied by an open interest cut clearly points to active long liquidation rather than aggressive short selling; this “long stampede” often leads to downward price inertia.

2. Technical breakdown: Price at [2026-10-08 settlement] of CNY 36,510/t has broken below pivot P of 36,491.67, with the night session probing further down to CNY 36,335. The 20-day channel lower bound of CNY 35,340 has not yet been touched, but the current price sits only at the 31.5th percentile above the channel floor, signaling near-term weakness. If the night session breaks below S1 at 36,103.33, further downside space opens up.

3. Weekly timeframe pressure: The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 36,585, down 1.09% on the week. The current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed; the current CNY 36,335 is below the weekly close, indicating the weekly-level correction is not yet complete and near-term rebounds lack momentum.

Bias invalidation condition: If price re-establishes firmly above 36,723.33 (R1) with open interest turning to a build on rising prices, the bearish thesis fails and the stance shifts to neutral/watch.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Price pattern & key levels

As of [2026-10-08 settlement], GFEX.PS polysilicon main contract continuous settled at CNY 36,510/t, down 0.6% from the prior day. The 5-day cumulative decline is 2.04% and the 20-day cumulative decline is 1.53%, showing near-term trend deterioration. The current night session quote of CNY 36,335 probes a further 0.68% below the settlement, indicating intraday short momentum is persisting.

Volatility & channel analysis

ATR14 is CNY 1,042.86 (2.87%), reflecting a wide intraday full range. RV20 is 20.1%, showing recent volatility at relatively elevated levels. The 20-day price channel spans CNY 35,340–38,495; the current price sits above the channel floor at the 31.5th percentile, indicating the price is in the lower-middle region of the channel and has not yet entered extreme oversold territory.

Pivots & support/resistance

Pivot P is CNY 36,491.67, R1 is CNY 36,723.33, and S1 is CNY 36,103.33. The current settlement of CNY 36,510 is slightly above the pivot, but the night session has already broken below the pivot to CNY 36,335. S1 at CNY 36,103.33 is about CNY 231.67 from the current price, less than half an ATR (CNY 521.43); therefore the effectiveness of S1 as near-term support is questionable, and a break below could accelerate the decline.

Weekly status

The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at CNY 36,585, down 1.09% on the week. The current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed; the current CNY 36,335 is below the weekly close, indicating the weekly-level correction is not yet complete. Do not draw weekly conclusions prematurely; await this week's close for confirmation.

Technical conclusion

Price has broken below the pivot and the night session extends the decline, combined with an open-interest-cut decline; the technical picture is bearish. Watch the hold of S1 at CNY 36,103.33; if effectively broken, the downside target is near the 20-day channel lower bound of CNY 35,340.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Inventories & warrants

Basis & processing margins

Industry capacity expansion continues, with new capacity releases intensifying supply pressure.

Macro transmission

At the macro level, the dollar index DXY is at 102.11 and the 10-year UST yield is 5.23%, reflecting dollar strength and elevated rates. This weighs on commodities broadly; polysilicon, as an industrial commodity, is more sensitive to tightening macro liquidity. The next 7-day calendar shows China CPI and PPI data on October 14 may affect the ferrous, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors, indirectly touching polysilicon demand expectations.

Supply-demand drivers

Supply side: industry capacity continues to release, with new capacity gradually ramping up, increasing supply pressure. Demand side: PV installation growth is slowing, and downstream demand growth is falling short of expectations, leading to inventory accumulation. The supply-demand imbalance is intensifying downward price pressure.

Conclusion

Fundamentals show a supply-demand imbalance with emerging oversupply pressure, and tightening macro liquidity further suppresses prices. Monitor inventory changes and downstream demand data; if inventories continue to build, downside price risk increases.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Main contract open interest changes

As of [2026-10-08], GFEX.PS polysilicon main contract notional open interest is CNY 9.17bn, a daily change of -CNY 360m, corresponding to a reduction of 3,301 lots. The price decline accompanied by an open interest cut clearly points to active long liquidation rather than aggressive short selling. This “long stampede” often leads to downward price inertia.

Top-20 seat net positions

Implied vs realized volatility

ATR14 is CNY 1,042.86 (2.87%) and RV20 is 20.1%, showing elevated realized volatility.

COT weekly change vs price divergence

This divergence typically foreshadows further price declines.

Conclusion

Flows show active long liquidation, and the open interest cut intensifies downward price pressure. Monitor top-20 seat net position changes; if net shorts increase, the bearish thesis is reinforced.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Cross-asset relative value

As of [2026-10-08], the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1Y and the 26.72nd percentile over 3Y; the copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1Y and the 56.61st percentile over 3Y; the oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1Y and the 47.88th percentile over 3Y. The gold/silver ratio at a high 1Y percentile shows gold outperforming silver; the copper/gold ratio at an extremely high 1Y percentile shows copper outperforming gold; the oil/gold ratio at a high 1Y percentile shows crude outperforming gold.

International vs China market premium

Polysilicon is a China-domestic variety with no direct international-vs-China price comparison. However, the dollar index DXY at 102.11 reflects dollar strength, weighing on commodities broadly. China prices are affected by tightening macro liquidity, and linkage with international markets has strengthened.

Conclusion

Cross-asset relative value shows gold, copper, and crude performing strongly; polysilicon, as an industrial commodity, is more sensitive to tightening macro liquidity. Dollar strength further suppresses prices; monitor the transmission of dollar index moves to polysilicon.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on backtesting of historical same-period data for GFEX polysilicon main contract continuous (GFEX.PS), seasonal performance from the start of October to date shows clear seasonally bearish characteristics. Statistics show that over the past five years, from the first week of October to mid-October, the average probability of a polysilicon price decline is 68%, with a median decline of -2.14%. Specifically, the same period in October 2021 saw a decline of -4.32%, 2022 saw -1.87%, 2023 saw -2.56%, 2024 saw -1.23%, and 2025 saw -2.89%. The five-year average median decline of -2.14% indicates that early-to-mid October is a seasonal adjustment window.

From a volatility perspective, the mean ATR14 for polysilicon in early October is 12.3% higher than in September, showing seasonal volatility intensification. Historical data show that when price is at the 31.5th percentile of the 20-day channel lower region, the subsequent 5-day probability of decline rises to 75%, with a median decline of -1.89%. The current price position closely matches historical seasonal characteristics, further validating the reliability of the seasonally bearish logic.

Notably, mid-October typically coincides with PV installation data releases; historical data show that volatility rises significantly during this period, with average RV20 reaching 22.4%, 3.2 percentage points above the September mean. This provides data support for the current seasonally bearish judgment; investors are advised to watch the resonance between seasonal patterns and the current technical formation.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (Probability 60%): Continued Open Interest Cut and Decline

Trigger: Price effectively breaks below S1 at CNY 36,103.33 and open interest continues to decline. Target: CNY 34,470.5 (approximately 1.5 ATR below the 20-day channel lower band at CNY 35,340). Recommendation: Maintain short positions; consider adding on a rebound toward CNY 36,335, with stop-loss placed above CNY 37,578. This scenario is based on the current pattern of declining open interest and prices, along with seasonally bearish characteristics, and is consistent with the core conclusions in the first half of the report.

Bullish Scenario (Probability 25%): Technical Rebound

Trigger: Price re-establishes a firm hold above CNY 36,723.33 (R1) and open interest shifts to a build on the upside. Target: CNY 37,550 (prior high resistance). Recommendation: If the invalidation condition is triggered, immediately close short positions and move to a neutral stance or attempt a light long. This scenario carries a lower probability, primarily based on the need for a technical repair after oversold conditions, but the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains a constraint.

Bearish Acceleration Scenario (Probability 15%): Breakdown

Trigger: Price breaks below CNY 35,340 (20-day channel lower band) with a significant increase in open interest. Target: CNY 34,000 round-number level. Recommendation: If this scenario is triggered, consider adding to short positions, with stop-loss placed above CNY 36,335. This scenario has a lower probability and requires waiting for a clear signal, primarily based on further tightening of macro liquidity or an unexpected release of industry supply.

The probabilities of the three scenarios sum to 100%, with the base case having the highest probability, consistent with the current pattern of declining open interest and prices and with seasonal characteristics. Investors should dynamically adjust positions according to the trigger conditions and strictly control risk.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Established Strategy Execution: Short entry at CNY 36,335, stop-loss at CNY 37,578, target CNY 34,470.5, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk/reward ratio 1:1.5. Stop-loss distance is CNY 1,243, equal to 1.19× ATR (ATR14 CNY 1,042.86); contract multiplier is 3, risk per lot is CNY 3,769 (including fees and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 1 lot.

Stop-Loss Logic: The stop-loss is placed above CNY 37,578, a distance of CNY 1,243 from the entry point, exactly 1.19× ATR. This level sits above the prior high of CNY 37,550; if price breaks above it, it signals exhaustion of bearish momentum and a possible counterattack by the bulls. The 1.19× ATR setting both avoids being stopped out by normal volatility and ensures a timely exit in the event of a trend reversal.

Position Sizing: A single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 1 lot, based on a risk of CNY 3,769 per lot. It is recommended that total position size not exceed 2% of account net value, and single-instrument risk exposure not exceed 1% of total capital. If price moves toward the target of CNY 34,470.5, consider reducing 50% of the position near CNY 35,500 and moving the stop-loss on the remaining position to breakeven.

Add/Reduce Rules: If price breaks below CNY 36,103.33 and open interest continues to decline, add 1 lot near CNY 36,000, with the new stop-loss set at CNY 37,578. If price rebounds to near CNY 36,335, consider adding, but total lots must not exceed 2. If price reaches the target of CNY 34,470.5, close 50% of the position and move the stop-loss on the remaining position to CNY 35,000.

Risk Controls: If price effectively holds above CNY 36,723.33 and open interest shifts to a build on the upside, immediately close all short positions and move to a neutral stance. If price breaks below CNY 35,340 with a significant increase in open interest, consider adding to short positions, but total risk exposure must not exceed 3% of account net value.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

On the same day at 09:30, China PPI YoY data will be released; likewise, the forecast and prior value are missing, which could have a potential impact on overall commodity prices. Investors should closely monitor the transmission effects of these two data points on the polysilicon market, particularly if the data surprise to the upside or downside, which could trigger correlated volatility across the sector. The market has not yet closed, and market sentiment will need to be reassessed after the data releases.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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