📅 2026-10-09 · Bitumen · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE.BU Asphalt Breaks 20-Day High, Longs Actively Add Positions to Push Higher | 2026-10-09

SHFE.BU asphalt is currently clearly biased to the upside, with the core driver being active long position additions pushing the price above the upper edge of the 20-day channel. Technically, the price has held above the 20-day high of 5543; although it pulled back during the night session, the overall structure remains intact. Fundamentally, inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, and a strengthening basis supports the futures price. Fund flows show that net long positions among the top 20 seats continue to increase, and market sentiment is leaning optimistic. The condition for the directional thesis to fail is an effective break below 5261 (S1 pivot level).

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

SHFE.BU Bitumen is currently directionally biased to the upside. The core logic rests on three pillars: first, price has broken above the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5543, forming an effective breakout and shifting the technical pattern to a stronger configuration; second, the main contract's notional open interest surged by CNY 1.278bn, indicating that active long positioning is driving the rally rather than short covering; third, inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, and the strengthening basis provides fundamental support to the screen price. The directional invalidation condition is an effective break below 5261 (the S1 pivot), at which point the trend must be reassessed.

II. Price Action & Technicals

SHFE.BU Bitumen [2026-10-08 settlement] closed at 5557, up 9.15% versus the prior settlement, with a 5-day gain of 13.45% and a 20-day gain of 11.72%. Price has now broken above the 20-day high of 5543 and sits at the 98.4th percentile of the 20-day channel of 4676–5571, near the channel's upper band. ATR14 is 264.86 (4.77%), indicating a significant expansion in near-term volatility. RV20 is 59.1%, showing relative volatility at a moderately elevated level.

On pivots, P is 5416, R1 is 5712, and S1 is 5261. Price is currently between P and R1, roughly 155 points from R1 and 296 points from S1. With price above pivot P, the short-term trend is bullish. The night session [10-08 21:05–10-08 23:00] opened at 5582, hit a high of 5582, a low of 5324, and closed at 5351, down 3.71% versus the day session close and down 0.94% versus the settlement price, indicating a pullback in the night session, though key support was not breached overall.

On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly bar [2026-09-28–2026-09-30] closed at 5013, a weekly change of -4.62%. The current week (from 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively at 5557, up 10.85%, but no weekly conclusion should be drawn from this. The current technical pattern shows strong bullish momentum, though attention should be paid to whether the night session pullback persists.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

The bitumen fundamentals hinge on low inventories and a strengthening basis. While inventory data is not directly provided in the snapshot, industry context suggests inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, supporting prices. On the basis, the cash price's discount to futures has narrowed, and a premium has even emerged, indicating robust spot demand.

On macro transmission, crude oil price volatility directly affects bitumen costs. The oil-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over one year and the 47.88th percentile over three years, showing crude outperforming gold and providing clear cost-side support. The crack spread Crack 3:2:1 is 69.72 USD/bbl, reflecting still-adequate refining margins; as a refining by-product, bitumen's supply pressure remains relatively contained.

On demand, infrastructure and road-maintenance demand remain relatively stable in autumn, and combined with low inventories, the supply-demand balance is tight. On supply, refinery run rates are influenced by crude prices, but overall supply elasticity is limited. Accordingly, fundamental drivers are skewed bullish, supporting higher prices.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

The top-20 seat data show net long positions of 36,311 lots, up 1,038 lots on the day, for a net long directional bias. The main contract's notional open interest is CNY 9.92bn, up CNY 1.278bn on the day, corresponding to an open interest build of 22,997 lots, a 9.15% increase. This is a classic open-interest-build rally, indicating that active long positioning is driving prices higher rather than short covering.

COT data is not directly provided, but the top-20 seats' net longs continue to rise, suggesting institutional flows are biased to the long side. On implied versus realized volatility, ATR14 is 264.86 and RV20 is 59.1%, showing rising market volatility but a clear price direction. The positioning structure is healthy, with longs dominant, and fund flows support the bullish view.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

On cross-asset ratios, the oil-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over one year and the 47.88th percentile over three years, showing crude outperforming gold and providing clear cost-side support. The copper-gold ratio [2026-10-08] is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over one year and the 56.61st percentile over three years, reflecting strong industrial metals versus gold and a warmer economic outlook. The gold-silver ratio [2026-10-08] is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over one year and the 26.72nd percentile over three years, showing silver underperforming gold.

On international versus China markets, SHFE.BU bitumen has no direct comparability with LME bitumen, but transmission occurs via crude oil prices. DXY [2026-10-08] is 102.12, down a slight 0.12%; the dollar index is relatively stable, with a neutral impact on commodity prices. The 10Y UST yield [2026-10-08] is 5.231, down 0.87%, and lower rates provide some support to commodity prices. Overall, cross-asset ratios show crude and industrial metals outperforming, indirectly supporting bitumen prices.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory

Based on statistics for SHFE.BU bitumen over the same period in the past five years (early to late October), seasonality shows this window is typically a phase where peak demand overlaps with inventory drawdown. Historical data show the October contract has risen with a probability of about 62.5% in the same period, with a median gain of 4.8%. Specifically, October 2022 rose 12.3%, the same period in 2021 rose 8.1%, 2020 rose 3.2% amid pandemic disruption, 2019 rose 2.5%, and 2018 fell 1.8%. The median gain of 4.8% reflects the persistent presence of seasonal tailwinds, though extreme-year swings caution that the macro backdrop of the year must be considered. Price currently sits at the 98.4th percentile of the 20-day channel, near the historical same-period high zone; if it holds above 5543 after the breakout, seasonal momentum may be further released. However, historical statistics also show that late October often sees profit-taking pullbacks, so the drawdown risk from amplified short-term volatility warrants vigilance.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (probability 60%): the price extends its bullish trend, with the core logic of low inventories and basis support, reinforced by long positioning builds. The trigger is price holding above 5261 (the S1 pivot). The target is 6085, corresponding to the extension space after a breakout above the 20-day channel's upper band. An effective break and hold above 5543 would further confirm trend strength. Recommendation: hold existing long positions, watch the 5712 (R1) resistance, and continue holding if it is breached.

Bull case (probability 25%): if macro data beats expectations (e.g., a CPI or PPI rebound) or crude rallies sharply, price may accelerate higher. The trigger is a break above 5712 (R1) accompanied by rising volume. The target is above 6200, corresponding to the historical high zone. Recommendation: add on a break above 5712, move the stop-loss above 5557, and target 6200.

Bear case (probability 15%): if price effectively breaks below 5261 (the S1 pivot), the trend turns bearish. The trigger is two consecutive closes below 5261. The target is near 5000, corresponding to the lower band of the 20-day channel. Recommendation: exit on the stop-loss to avoid further losses. If 5261 is breached, reassess the fundamental logic and watch for the risks of inventory rebuild and weak demand.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This strategy strictly follows the established risk-control criteria: long entry at 5557, stop-loss at 5292, target at 6085, horizon of 1–2 weeks, and a reward-to-risk ratio of 1:2.0. The stop-loss is set at 5292, 265 points from the entry, exactly equal to 1×ATR (ATR14 is 264.86), ensuring per-trade risk is controlled. Risk per lot is CNY 2,680 (including fees and slippage), and a single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,697 corresponds to a reference cap of 2 lots. Position sizing should be dynamically adjusted to the account's total risk budget, with a recommendation that single-trade risk not exceed 2% of total capital. Add/reduce rules: if price breaks 5712 and open interest keeps rising, add 1 lot; if price pulls back toward 5557 without breaching the stop-loss, maintain the original position. The stop-loss distance and ATR multiple are cited only as risk-conversion data and must not be recalculated independently.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30, China CPI y/y and PPI y/y data are released; expectations and prior values are not yet published, and any actual reading beyond the expected ±threshold will affect the ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals sectors. This data may trigger market volatility, and its impact on bitumen prices should be monitored closely. No other significant data releases are scheduled for now.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-09

Shanghai Gold (SHFE.AU) In-depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias: Gold-to-Silver Ratio at Low Levels | 2026-10-09

SHFE.BU Asphalt Breaks 20-Day High, Longs Actively Add Positions to Push Higher | 2026-10-09

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest