📅 2026-10-09 · SHFE Nickel · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias, Possible Rebound After Breaking 20-Day Low | 2026-10-09

The core conclusion for SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) is bullish bias, with invalidation conditions being a break below 117670 (S1) or a sharp jump in LME nickel inventories of more than 5000 tons. Key reasons include: first, after breaking the 20-day low, the technicals show a need for repair; second, SHFE warrants have fallen for consecutive sessions, supporting spot sentiment; third, the copper-gold ratio is at a 1-year high, indicating improving growth expectations.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The bottom line is bullish, with invalidation conditions of a break below 117670 (S1) or a single-day LME nickel inventory jump of more than 5,000 tonnes. Three core reasons: first, SHFE Nickel settled at 118750 on 2026-10-08, breaking below the 20-day low of 120270, after which technical oversold-recovery momentum has been gradually building; second, SHFE nickel warrants stood at 90558 tonnes as of 2026-10-08, down 277 tonnes versus the prior reading, with consecutive declines supporting spot-market sentiment; third, in cross-asset relative value, the copper-gold ratio sits at the 96.83% percentile over one year, indicating improved market expectations for industrial-metals growth, which transmits to nickel as a supportive factor.

II. Price Action & Technicals

SHFE Nickel settled at 119550 on 2026-10-08, down 2.47% versus the previous trading day; the 5-day change is -5.5% and the 20-day change is -6.43%, leaving prices in a short-term consolidation range. ATR14 is 2095, implying an intraday range of 1.76%, indicating a moderate level of price volatility; RV20 is 17.1%, the 20-day price channel is 118150-129540, and the current price sits 5.3% above the lower band. The pivot P is 119230, R1 is 120310, and S1 is 117670; the current settlement is slightly above the pivot, with support S1 188 points below the current price, roughly 0.9× ATR, approaching effective support. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 122040, a weekly change of -2.62%; the current week has not yet closed and is provisionally at 118750, down 2.7% versus the weekly close.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Core supply-demand data show LME nickel inventories at 284178 tonnes as of 2026-10-07, unchanged on the day, with a cumulative increase of 13254 tonnes over the past 20 periods; inventories are in a 20-period uptrend but saw no single-day addition. SHFE nickel warrants stood at 90558 tonnes as of 2026-10-08, down 277 tonnes versus 2026-09-30, with consecutive warrant declines reflecting either improved spot trading activity or rising destocking demand. On the basis, the SHFE nickel main contract (M2611) settled at 119550 and closed the night session at 118550, a discount of 1,000 points to the settlement price; the discount has narrowed slightly versus earlier periods, indicating gradually strengthening spot support for futures prices. On processing margins, nickel-iron processing profit remains within the industry's normal range, with no extreme losses or gains; the supply-demand balance is overall weak, with no clear one-sided bullish or bearish driver.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

On positioning structure, SHFE nickel's top-20 seats were net short 24,960 lots as of 2026-10-08, up 2,388 lots versus the prior reading; short positions were actively added, consistent with the day's open-interest-build decline, indicating cautious short-term sentiment without forming a one-sided bearish trend. On main-contract positioning, SHFE nickel main contract (M2611) open interest was 147,697 lots, up 16,218 lots versus the prior reading, a large build, with notional open interest reaching CNY 175.4 100m, a daily change of +CNY 19.26 100m; the build-and-decline pattern shows active short-covering additions dominating, but combined with technical oversold conditions, shorts may cover and repair. On implied versus realized volatility, current implied volatility is near the 20-day average with no extreme moves, and realized volatility (ATR) is at a moderate level; market sentiment shows neither panic nor euphoria.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

On cross-asset relative value, the copper-gold ratio stood at 1.58 as of 2026-10-08, at the 96.83% one-year percentile and near a one-year high, indicating improved market expectations for industrial-metals growth; copper, as the benchmark industrial metal, transmits its elevated ratio to nickel as support. The gold-silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16% one-year percentile and a relatively high level over the past year, indicating silver is relatively weak versus gold and offering limited overall support to industrial metals; the oil-gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06% one-year percentile and near a one-year high, indicating a strong crude-versus-gold relationship, reflecting that global economic activity may be in an expansion phase and indirectly supporting industrial-metals demand. On international versus China market valuation, the SHFE nickel main contract (M2611) versus LME nickel ratio is within a reasonable range, with no significant premium or discount and no obvious import arbitrage space; international and China market linkage is normal.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

Based on statistics for SHFE nickel over the same date across the past 11 years for the subsequent 20 trading days, the average gain over this period is 0.01%, the median decline is 3.8%, and up years account for 36.36% (4/11); the best historical performance was a 22.59% gain in the same period of 2017, and the worst was a 7.86% decline in the same period of 2024. Note that the sample size is limited; this serves only as background reference for short-term price volatility and does not constitute a basis for trend judgment. From a seasonality perspective, the share of up years in this period is low and the median performance is weak, but combined with current technical oversold-recovery momentum, traders should be alert to the risk of divergence between seasonality and fundamentals; this cannot serve as the core basis for trading decisions on its own.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability)

Trigger: SHFE nickel main contract settlement holds above 117670 (S1), and LME nickel single-day inventory does not jump by more than 5,000 tonnes. Target prices: short-term target 120310 (R1), medium-term target 122206.8. Corresponding action: execute the long entry per the established strategy, keeping position size within the risk budget.

Bullish Case (25% probability)

Trigger: SHFE nickel main contract breaks above 120310 (R1) intraday, with LME nickel inventories stable or slightly declining. Target prices: 122206.8; if open interest continues to rise after the break, the upside could extend toward 125000. Corresponding action: add to longs on the break above R1, moving the stop-loss below 118500.

Bearish Case (15% probability)

Trigger: SHFE nickel main contract breaks below 117670 (S1), or LME nickel single-day inventory jumps by more than 5,000 tonnes. Target prices: near 115000; if open interest rises sharply after the break below S1, the downside could extend to 112000. Corresponding action: if the invalidation condition triggers, close long positions immediately; light short trials are permissible, with the stop-loss set above 118500.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Verbatim established strategy: Long Entry 118500 / Stop-loss 116195.5 / Target 121956.8 / Horizon 1-5d / Risk-reward 1:1.5; Long Entry 118750 / Stop-loss 116445.5 / Target 122206.8 / Horizon 1-2w / Risk-reward 1:1.5. Stop-loss rationale: the stop distance is 2304.5, corresponding to 1.1× ATR (ATR14 is 2095); this level both covers short-term volatility risk and avoids being triggered out by price noise due to an overly tight stop. Position rules: single-trade risk budget is CNY 6697, corresponding to a reference cap of 2 lots, which must not be exceeded; add/reduce rules: if price moves toward the target and open interest continues to rise, add 1 lot after 1,000 points of profit, with total position not exceeding 2 lots.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time 10-14 09:30 will see the release of China CPI y/y and PPI y/y; expected values not disclosed, prior values not disclosed, affected sectors: black metals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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