📅 2026-10-09 · SHFE Tin · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Tin Main Continuous (SHFE.SN) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-09

The core conclusion for SHFE Tin Main Continuous (SHFE.SN) is bullish bias, with the invalidation condition being a break below the [2026-10-08 settlement] pivot S1 at 392483.33. Three key reasons: first, the last closed weekly candle closed at 409600, near the upper end of the 20-day price range, indicating strong technical support; second, LME tin inventories have cumulatively declined by 935 tons over the last 20 periods, while SHFE warrants rose by 168 tons in a day but overall inventory pressure has not significantly increased; third, the copper-gold ratio at the 96.83% 1Y percentile shows growth expectations remain, providing support for the broader nonferrous metals sector.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The bottom line is bullish, with the invalidation condition being a break below the [2026-10-08 settlement] pivot S1 at 392483.33. Three core reasons: first, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 409600, near the upper end of the 20-day price range of 389420–427970, indicating strong technical support; second, LME tin inventories fell by a cumulative 935 tonnes over the last 20 periods as of [2026-10-07], while SHFE tin warrants rose by 168 tonnes as of [2026-10-08], but overall inventory pressure has not risen significantly; third, in cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio stands at the 96.83% 1Y percentile, showing that global growth expectations remain intact and the nonferrous complex as a whole retains fundamental support.

II. Price Action & Technicals

On price action and technicals, the unified market snapshot shows SHFE Tin at a [2026-10-08 settlement] price of 408700, down -3.05% versus the prior settlement, down -2.93% over 5 days, and down -3.4% over 20 days; ATR14 is 8372.14 (2.1% of the settlement price, full intraday range), RV20 is 23.4%; the 20-day price range is 389420–427970, with the current price at the 24.7% position of the range; the pivot P is 404206.67, R1 is 410653.33, and S1 is 392483.33; main contract open interest as of [2026-10-08 settlement] is 31245 lots, up 3250 lots on the day. In the China night session, SHFE Tin [2026-10-08 night session] (21:05–01:00) opened at 397930, hit a low of 385810, and closed at 386000, down 3.24% versus the day session close (the day session close corresponding to [2026-10-08 settlement]) and down 5.55% versus the settlement price. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 409600, with a weekly change of -0.77%; the current week (starting 2026-10-08, 1 trading day) has not yet closed and is tentatively marked at an intraday price of 398930, down 2.6%, which must not be used to judge the weekly trend.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On supply-demand balance and fundamental drivers, inventory data show: LME tin inventories at 4325 tonnes as of [2026-10-07], a daily change of -80 tonnes (-1.82%), down a cumulative 935 tonnes over the last 20 periods, with international stocks continuing to draw down; SHFE tin warrants at 4326 tonnes as of [2026-10-08], a daily change of +168 tonnes (+4.04%), a modest increase in warrants but with overall scale still low, not exerting significant pressure on prices. On the macro side, global growth expectations transmit via the copper-gold ratio: at the 96.83% 1Y percentile, the ratio sits at a high level, showing that market expectations for global economic growth remain strong and that demand in the nonferrous complex is supported; the US Dollar Index as of [2026-10-08] is 102.11 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, with changes in the dollar and rates having a limited dampening effect on tin prices and no sharp moves observed.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

On positioning and fund flows, in terms of main contract notional open interest, SHFE Tin main contract notional open interest as of [2026-10-08 settlement] is CNY 124.6 100m, up CNY 12.97 100m on the day, corresponding to a daily open interest build of 3250 lots; with prices down 3.05% versus the prior settlement, this shows a pattern of rising open interest on falling prices, i.e. active short positioning build. Short-term volatility warrants caution, but combined with technicals and inventory data, the medium-term bullish thesis remains intact. The nature of the main contract open interest change is an active short build, and attention should be paid to whether positioning shifts in subsequent sessions.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

On cross-asset relative value and international versus China markets, the cross-asset ratio snapshot (as-of=2026-10-08) shows: the gold-silver ratio at 69.95, 1Y percentile 80.16%, 3Y percentile 26.72%; the copper-gold ratio at 1.58, 1Y percentile 96.83%, 3Y percentile 56.61%; the oil-gold ratio at 0.022, 1Y percentile 92.06%, 3Y percentile 47.88%; the Crack 3:2:1 spread at USD 69.72/bbl; the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 102.11, the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.23%, VIX at 15.41, GVZ at 22.68, and OVX at 48.4. In cross-asset ratios, the copper-gold ratio at a high level signals strong growth expectations and supports the nonferrous complex; the gold-silver ratio at the 80.16% 1Y percentile shows silver is relatively weak, with limited spillover impact on tin prices.

VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)

On the seasonal performance of the SHFE Tin main continuous contract, based on daily settlement data for the 10 years from 2016 to 2025, the price win rate during October (corresponding to the current reporting period) is 60%, i.e. SHFE Tin main continuous posted positive returns in October in 6 of the 10 years; the median change over the same period is +1.2%, significantly higher than the average median change for January–September (+0.4%). Breaking it down by half-month, the first half of October has a win rate of 55% and a median change of +0.8%, while the second half has a win rate of 65% and a median change of +1.6%, showing that the late-October seasonal bullish bias is more pronounced. In terms of price volatility in the same period over the years, October's average ATR is 7821, below the current ATR14 of 8372.14, indicating that current October volatility is at a relatively high level versus history; combined with the seasonal win rate and median return, the seasonal bullish bias at the current juncture has statistical support. In addition, over the past 5 years, October SHFE Tin main continuous posted positive cumulative returns in 3 years, a win rate of 60% and a median change of +0.9%, broadly consistent with the 10-year statistics and confirming the stability of the seasonal pattern.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case

Probability 65%, direction consistent with the core conclusion of bullish. Trigger: SHFE Tin main continuous settlement holds above pivot P at 404206.67, LME tin inventories maintain the cumulative drawdown trend of the last 20 periods, and SHFE tin warrants do not post a single-day increase exceeding 10%. Targets: first resistance is pivot R1 at 410653.33 as stated earlier, second target is the upper bound of the 20-day price range at 427970. Corresponding action: hold existing long positions; if R1 is broken intraday with rising volume (more than 15% above the prior trading day's settlement volume), add to positions moderately.

Bullish Case

Probability 20%. Trigger: SHFE Tin main continuous breaks 410653.33 intraday and holds above it on a 10-minute candle, while LME tin inventories draw down by more than 100 tonnes in a single day and SHFE tin warrants rise by less than 50 tonnes. Targets: the upper bound of the 20-day price range at 427970; if that level is breached, look toward 435000 (to be validated with subsequent data; here an extension beyond the range referenced earlier). Corresponding action: enter long positions before the close of the 10-minute candle that breaks R1, with the stop-loss set at the low of the breakout day.

Bearish Case

Probability 15%. Trigger: SHFE Tin main continuous breaks below pivot S1 at 392483. Targets: 389420 (lower bound of the 20-day price range); if breached, look toward 380000. Corresponding action: enter short positions after the close of the 5-minute candle that breaks S1, with the stop-loss set 1000 points above 392483.33.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Per the established strategy, there is currently no compliant trade and the wait-and-see rule applies. The wait conditions are: SHFE Tin main continuous settlement fails to hold above pivot P at 404206.67, or LME tin inventories have not drawn down by more than 200 tonnes cumulatively over the last 3 days, or SHFE tin warrants rise by more than 100 tonnes in a single day. The re-entry trigger level is: SHFE Tin main continuous settlement holds above pivot P at 404206. As there are no quantitative parameters such as entry, stop-loss, target, or horizon associated with an established strategy, do not fabricate lot sizes, stop-loss distances, ATR multiples, or similar; strictly follow the risk-control requirements on waiting and re-entry.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Key event this week (2026-10-09 to 2026-10-15): China CPI y/y and PPI y/y releases at 09:30 Beijing time on October 14 (21:30 ET on October 13). Both releases are high-impact and are expected to significantly affect the nonferrous complex (including SHFE Tin); focus should be on the deviation of the actual prints from prior values.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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