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Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange final daily settlement

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Tightness | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on WTI Crude (CL=F) as the market prices in a supply-constrained backdrop despite near-term technical resistance. The primary catalyst is the combination of structurally tight distillate inventories, robust crack margins, and a backwardated curve that rewards prompt physical demand. While the 20-day moving average remains a headwind, the recent surge in prices and the current positioning of managed money suggest a potential retest of the 20-day high. The key invalidation level sits below the 20-day support at 86.86, where a breakdown would signal a deeper correction. This call is based on the prior session's final settlement of 91.49 and the intraday snapshot as of 06:50 Asia time on 2026-10-09, which shows a slight pullback to 91.11 but remains above critical support zones. The market is currently in a state of recovery from the weekly low, with the 5-day decline of -1.49% having been arrested by the latest settlement. We expect the backwardation to persist, supporting higher prices in the near term, provided that supply disruptions do not materialize and demand remains resilient.