This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange final daily settlement

GF=F Deep Dive | Bullish on Contango Carry & Macro Tailwinds | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on GF=F (Guangzhou Futures Exchange iron ore futures), targeting a retest of the 20-day upper channel resistance near 339.55 as macro liquidity supports commodity risk. The primary thesis rests on three pillars: a supportive contango structure in the front-month curve offering positive carry, a technical setup where price holds above the key pivot at 334.93, and a macro backdrop where weakening US dollar dynamics and stable yields favor non-yielding assets. Invalidation occurs if the price decisively breaches the 332.8 support level on a settled basis, which would signal a failure of the current accumulation range. Current intraday trading in Asia shows resilience, with the contract holding near the settle of 335.3, suggesting that the recent 5-day consolidation is concluding. While the 20-day channel remains intact, investors should monitor the 337.43 resistance for a potential breakout. The risk-reward profile favors long exposure with a stop placed beyond the 330.3 secondary support, aligning with the ATR of 5.65. This setup offers a defined opportunity to capture upside momentum before any potential mean reversion to the 316.18 lower bound.