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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Prompt Tightness | 2026-10-10

We maintain a bullish stance on Brent Crude (BZ=F), anchored by a structural backwardation in the front-month curve and resilient demand signals despite elevated macro volatility. The market is currently trading near the upper boundary of its 20-day range, supported by a 5-day gain of 2.42% and a 20-day advance of 4.95% from the 104.72 settle. Key drivers include tightening distillate inventories, which are down 12.0% versus the five-year average, and a robust 92.7% US refinery utilization rate that underpins crack margins. While the current week remains open, the momentum from the prior session's close of 104.72 suggests continued upward pressure. A daily close below the 103.05 support level would invalidate this thesis, signaling a potential shift to a neutral or bearish outlook.