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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Backwardation & Tightness | 2026-10-10

We maintain a bullish call on WTI Crude (CL=F) with an invalidation at a daily close below 90.52. The primary drivers are a steep prompt backwardation structure signaling immediate physical tightness, a supply side constrained by modest rig growth despite utilization near highs, and positioning that has de-risked significantly from crowded long extremes. Technically, the market is holding above the 20-day pivot at 91.343, suggesting the recent consolidation is resolving to the upside. While the 20-day channel remains range-bound, the current price action indicates a potential breakout from the 90.517 support zone. We target a move toward the 93.503 level if momentum accelerates. The risk of a short squeeze remains elevated given the low crowding percentile, but the fundamental backdrop supports higher prices in the near term. Investors should monitor the 90.52 level closely for any signs of trend reversal.