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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish on Curve Flip to Contango | 2026-10-10

We maintain a bearish stance on Wheat (ZW=F) as the forward curve has flipped from insufficient to contango, signaling ample near-term supply and weak carry incentives. The instrument settled at 671 on 2026-10-09, down 1.79% daily and 7.48% over 20 days, trading below the 20-day pivot of 661.5–736. Technicals show price hovering near the lower end of the 20-day channel, with the 5-day decline accelerating. A sustained break below the S1 support at 659.17 would confirm further downside toward 647.33. Fundamentally, the contango structure (M1-M2: -14.
5) reflects a market where storage costs exceed expected price appreciation, discouraging holding inventory. Positioning data suggests crowded short interest, but the macro backdrop of rising rates and a strong dollar adds pressure. The primary invalidation is a daily close above 685.17, which would negate the bearish thesis and suggest a technical rebound. We advise caution for longs and favor short exposure on rallies.