I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias
The current core conclusion for SHFE Gold (AU2612) is bullish. This is based on three main logics: First, the night session and main contract positioning resonate, with SHFE.AU night session (as of 10-10 02:30) closing at 908.48, up 1.04% from the day session settlement of 899.1, and the main contract's notional open interest surging by CNY 1.308 billion to CNY 207.59 billion, which is a typical active long buildup rather than short covering; Second, macro and fund flow support, with COT data showing that although managed fund net long positions have declined for four consecutive weeks, they remain at a high level of 110,987 lots, and the gold-silver ratio (69.07) is at the 74.6% percentile over 1 year, indicating that silver is relatively weaker than gold, and gold's safe-haven and monetary attributes have a comparative advantage in relative valuation; Third, the technical structure remains intact, with the price above the pivot P (903.23), and the lower bound of the 20-day channel at 889.82 providing strong support. As long as it does not effectively break below this range, the medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged.
The directional invalidation condition is set as: if the daily close effectively breaks below 895.23 (S1 pivot level), or the weekly level loses the 900 integer mark, then the bullish logic is falsified, and it is necessary to shift to neutral observation or bearish. The current data is as of 2026-10-10, during the night session trading hours, and close attention must be paid to the support effectiveness of the 903.23 pivot level.
II. Price Action & Technicals
As of the 2026-10-10 night session, SHFE Gold (AU2612) price performance was active. The day session settlement price was 899.1 [2026-10-09 settlement], and the night session (10-09 21:05 to 10-10 02:30) reached a high of 909.44, a low of 903.72, and finally closed at 908.48, up 1.04% from the day session settlement. This night session performance shows that bulls continued to exert force after the day session close, successfully recovering intraday losses and breaking through key resistance.
From a technical indicator perspective, the current price is above the pivot P (903.23) and approaching R1 (916.63). ATR14 is 15.51, with an intraday full range fluctuation of 1.71%, indicating increased market activity. The 20-day channel range is 889.82–977.26, and the current price is near the lower bound of this range (21.5% percentile), with 889.82 below constituting strong support. If the price can hold above 903.23, it is expected to test 916.63 (R1) or even 977.26 (20-day high).
On the weekly chart, the last closed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 910.58, with a weekly change of -1.84%. This week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed, temporarily reported at 908.64 (-0.21%), and it is prohibited to draw weekly conclusions based on this. However, the night session rebound shows that the weekly level may have stopped falling, and attention must be paid to whether the remaining trading days this week can recover the weekly close of 910.58.
In terms of 5-day and 20-day changes, SHFE.AU fell -2.05% over 5 days and -5.19% over 20 days, indicating that the short-term adjustment has not yet fully ended, but the night session rebound may reverse the short-term weakness. RV20 is 18.9%, indicating that recent volatility has increased, and rapid changes in market sentiment must be watched.
III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers
On the supply-demand fundamentals side, inventory data continues to be at low levels, supporting gold prices. COMEX GOLD registered inventory is 15.07 Moz (468,730 kg) [2026-10-07], with a daily change of 0 (+0%), indicating tight spot supply. SHFE GOLD warrant inventory is 116,028 kg [2026-10-09], with a daily change of 0 (+0%), also remaining stable. GLD holdings are 33,858,916 ounces (2026-10-09), compared with 33,778,539 20 trading days ago, a change of +0.24%, indicating continued ETF inflows, reflecting institutional long-term allocation demand for gold.
On the macro transmission side, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 102.23, the 10Y US Treasury yield is 5.24%, and fluctuations in the dollar and interest rates exert some pressure on gold prices, but the night session rebound shows that the market is more focused on safe-haven demand. COT data shows that although managed fund net long positions have declined for four consecutive weeks, they remain at a high level of 110,987 lots, indicating that institutional funds' bullish expectations for gold remain strong.
On the seasonal factor side, the average over the same date in the past 15 years for the next 20 trading days is +0.54%, with a median of +0.39%, and gains in 9 out of 15 years, indicating that autumn gold typically performs well. The current period is in a seasonally favorable window, and combined with night session open interest build, this further supports the bullish logic.
On the basis side, SHFE.AU vs GC=F China tax-adjusted premium is +0.16% [2026-10-09], compared with +0.03% 5 days ago, indicating that the spread between the international and Chinese markets has slightly widened, with Chinese gold at a slight premium to the international market, possibly reflecting strong Chinese demand.
IV. Positioning & Fund Flows
The positioning structure shows strengthening bullish forces. The top 20 seats' total positions are 219,469 lots, up 4,449 lots daily. Among them, long positions are 59,096 lots, up 1,487 lots daily; short positions are 160,373 lots, up 2,962 lots daily. Net long is 160,373 lots (daily +2,962 lots), indicating that short covering is stronger than long buildup, but net long positions remain at a high level.
The main contract's notional open interest is CNY 207.59 billion, up CNY 1.308 billion daily, with open interest +1,440 lots and a change of +1.55%, which is a typical open interest build with price rise, confirming active long buildup. This phenomenon indicates that the current price increase is not driven by short covering, but by active buying from longs, with market sentiment leaning optimistic.
COT data shows that managed fund net long positions have declined for four consecutive weeks, from 133,116 lots on 2026-09-15 to 110,987 lots on 2026-10-06, but the absolute value remains at a historical high. In terms of COT crowding, netPct is 28.02%, crowding is 90.8, CTA is 62, hedge is 14.45%, indicating that market crowding is relatively high, but managed funds still maintain net long, indicating that institutional funds' bullish expectations for gold remain unchanged.
In terms of implied volatility versus realized volatility, ^GVZ (gold implied volatility) is 22.79, 1D +0.11 pts, 1Y percentile 12%; GC=F RV20 17.9%, IV−RV +4.9 vol pts (IV/RV 1.27), indicating that the event risk premium priced by the options market is relatively high, and the market's expectation of future volatility has increased, possibly reflecting concerns about macro events.
V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value
On cross-asset relative value, the gold-silver ratio (Gold/Silver) is 69.07 [2026-10-09], 1Y percentile 74.6%, 3Y percentile 24.87%. The gold-silver ratio is at the 74.6% percentile over 1 year, indicating that silver is relatively weaker than gold, and gold is relatively strong. The copper-gold ratio (Copper/Gold) is 1.59 [2026-10-09], 1Y percentile 98.02%, 3Y percentile 58.33%, indicating that copper is extremely strong relative to gold, possibly reflecting economic growth expectations. The oil-gold ratio (Oil/Gold) is 0.0218 [2026-10-09], 1Y percentile 89.68%, 3Y percentile 47.09%, indicating that crude oil is extremely strong relative to gold, possibly reflecting strong energy demand.
On international versus Chinese market relative value, SHFE.AU vs GC=F China tax-adjusted premium is +0.16% [2026-10-09], compared with +0.03% 5 days ago, indicating that Chinese gold is at a slight premium to the international market, possibly reflecting strong Chinese demand. This premium helps support Chinese gold prices and reduces the impact of international market fluctuations on China.
The crack spread (Crack 3:2:1) is USD 66.75/bbl [2026-10-09], indicating that refining margins are still acceptable, possibly reflecting stable energy demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 102.23, the 10Y US Treasury yield is 5.24%, VIX is 14.84, GVZ is 22.79, OVX is 48.9, indicating that market risk appetite is relatively low, and gold benefits as a safe-haven asset.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
Based on the historical statistical sample of the same date over the past 15 years for the next 20 trading days, SHFE Gold (AU2612) typically has positive return characteristics during the autumn window. Statistics show that the average gain during this period is +0.54%, and the median gain is +0.39%. Among the 15 yearly samples, 9 years recorded gains, with a 60% probability of increase, indicating that seasonal factors support the current bullish conclusion. The best-performing year historically was 2011, with a gain of +6.72% over the same period; the worst-performing year was 2014, with a decline of -6.79% over the same period. The current price is in a seasonally favorable window, and combined with night session open interest build, this further validates the rationality of the bullish logic. Historical data shows that autumn is often a period of strong gold demand, which provides a fundamental backdrop for the current price rebound. Although the sample size is limited, the statistical results are consistent with current market sentiment, supporting continued holding of a bullish view.
VII. Scenario Analysis
Base Case (50% probability): Prices extend the night session rebound, find support at the 903.23 pivot, and attempt to attack the 916.63 (R1) resistance. Trigger condition is a daily close holding above 903.23 without breaking below 895.23 (S1). Target price is 916.63, with a further test of 977.26 (20-day high) if breached. Corresponding action is to hold existing long positions, and consider adding on a pullback to around 908.64.
Bullish Scenario (30% probability): If macro data beats expectations or geopolitical risk escalates, prices may quickly break through 916.63 and challenge 937.66 (based on the established strategy target). Trigger condition is an effective daily close above 916.63 with significantly elevated volume. Target price is 937.66, with corresponding action to aggressively add positions and move the stop-loss up to around 920.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability): If the daily close breaks below 895.23 or the weekly chart loses 900, the bullish thesis is invalidated, and prices may probe down to 889.82 (lower bound of the 20-day channel). Trigger condition is a daily close below 895.23, or the weekly chart losing 900. Target price is 889.82, with corresponding action to close long positions, switch to the sidelines, or consider a reverse trade.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
According to the established strategy, the long entry price is 908.64, stop-loss at 893.13, target price at 937.66, horizon of 1-5 days, and risk-reward ratio of 1:1.9. Another long setup has an entry price of 911, stop-loss at 895.49, target price at 940.02, horizon of 1-2 weeks, and risk-reward ratio of 1:1.9. Stop-loss levels are set at 893.13 and 895.49, corresponding to 1×ATR (ATR14 15.506), ensuring a reasonable stop distance and avoiding triggering by market noise. Risk per lot is 15,560 CNY (including commissions and slippage), and a single-trade risk budget of 66,920 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 4 lots. Position sizing is recommended not to exceed 20% of total capital to control overall risk. Add/reduce rules: if prices break above 916.63 with elevated volume, add 1 lot; if prices pull back to around 908.64 without breaking the stop-loss, add 1 lot. Stop distance and ATR multiples strictly reference the risk conversion data and must not be calculated independently.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Beijing time 10-14 09:30, US Eastern time 10-13 21:30, CPI y/y forecast and previous both blank, affecting ferrous, base metals, and chemicals sectors. Same day 09:30, PPI y/y forecast and previous both blank, also affecting ferrous, base metals, and chemicals sectors. These events may have a significant impact on market sentiment, and price reactions following the data release should be closely monitored.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.