I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias
The current directional call for Rebar (RB2701) is moderately bullish. This conclusion rests on three core reasons. First, from a technical standpoint, the [10-09 settlement] price of 3,080 sits within the 20-day channel of 3,060–3,183, and in the night session on 10-09 from 21:05 to 23:00 the price surged from 3,081 to 3,104 before closing at 3,098, up +0.58% versus the day session close, signaling strong short-covering momentum as the price attempts to repair the 5-day decline of -1.22%. Second, in terms of fund flows, the top-20 seats show net long positions of 37,885 lots (daily change +390 lots), with main-contract notional positioning at CNY 51.54bn and a daily change of -CNY 407m, clearly pointing to a rally on open interest cuts—i.e., shorts actively closing positions to push prices higher rather than longs actively adding, a structure that typically implies easing near-term selling pressure. Third, on the macro front, the dollar index DXY at 102.23 and the 10Y UST yield at 5.24% remain elevated; while this weighs on risk assets, there has been no sharp sell-off, providing some support to the black complex.
The invalidation condition is clearly defined: if the daily close breaks decisively below 3065.33 (the S1 pivot), the near-term bullish thesis is falsified and downside risks must be reassessed. The 20-day channel floor at 3,060 and the S1 pivot at 3065.33 currently form a key support zone; once breached, the price may test the 20-day low of 3,060 or even lower.
II. Price Action & Technicals
Rebar (RB2701) settled at 3,080 on [10-09 settlement], unchanged versus the prior settlement (+0%), but with a 5-day decline of -1.22% and a 20-day decline of -1.97%, indicating that near-term corrective pressure has not been fully released. However, the night session has become the key variable: the 10-09 night session opened at 3,081 at 21:05, touched a high of 3,104 and a low of 3,081, and finally closed at 3,098, up +0.58% versus the day session close and +0.58% versus the settlement price. This overnight rebound suggests the market found buying support near the 3,080 level, with strong willingness to cover shorts.
Technically, the current price of 3,080 sits within the 20-day channel of 3,060–3,183, 1.3% above the channel floor at 3,060, with an in-channel position of 16.3%, indicating the price remains relatively low. The pivot system shows the P pivot at 3079.67 nearly coinciding with the settlement price of 3,080, while R1 at 3094.33 and S1 at 3065.33 form near-term resistance and support respectively. The price currently sits above the P pivot, but only 14.66 points from R1 (about 0.48×ATR14) and 14.67 points from S1 (about 0.52×ATR14), oscillating near the pivot center with no clear breakout yet.
On volatility, ATR14 stands at 28.29 (0.92%) and RV20 at 10.5%, showing that near-term volatility has risen and market sentiment is turning more active. On the weekly chart, the last completed week (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 3,112 with a weekly change of -0.19%, while the current week (starting 2026-10-08) has not yet closed and is tentatively at 3,080 (-1.03%); a full weekly close is needed to confirm direction. The last five settlement days show the price falling from 3,112 on 09-30 to 3,061 on 10-08, then rebounding to 3,080 on 10-09, forming a “V”-shaped reversal; if the night session holds firmly above 3,090, the R1 resistance at 3094.33 may be challenged.
III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers
Over the past 15 years, the same-date 20-trading-day average return is -0.33%, with a median of -1.3% and a 6/15-year probability of gains, indicating a seasonally bearish window; however, 2016 saw an extreme +27.27% surge, showing that the supply-demand structure retains elasticity. The current price of 3,080 sits above the 20-day channel floor at 3,060, suggesting inventory pressure may be partly digested and the market is beginning to trade improving expectations.
On macro transmission, the dollar index DXY at 102.23 and the 10Y UST yield at 5.24% remain elevated, exerting some pressure on commodities, but with no sharp sell-off, indicating risk appetite has not completely collapsed. The key calendar over the next 7 days shows China CPI and PPI data due on 10-14; if the prints beat expectations, black-complex demand expectations may be further lifted. The current market logic is that during a macro data vacuum, fund flows and night-session behavior dominate short-term price moves, while inventory and demand data have not yet shown significant deterioration.
The rebar market gross spread (RB−1.6×I−0.5×J) is not given directly, but the rebound to around 3,080 implies mill margins may have recovered, potentially affecting production willingness. If the price holds firmly above 3,090, it could stimulate mill restarts and add supply pressure, though short-covering momentum still dominates for now.
IV. Positioning & Fund Flows
Top-20 seat data show total open interest in the rebar main contract at 1,598,245 lots, with net long positions of 37,885 lots and a daily increase of 390 lots, indicating long strength is building. Main-contract notional positioning stands at CNY 51.54bn, down CNY 407m on the day, corresponding to a 13,220-lot reduction in open interest while the price was unchanged at 0%, clearly pointing to a rally on open interest cuts—i.e., shorts actively closing to push prices higher. This positioning structure typically implies reduced selling pressure, strong short-covering willingness, and near-term long dominance.
COT data are not provided directly, but the combination of rising top-20 net longs and falling main-contract notional positioning is consistent with short-covering characteristics. On implied versus realized volatility, ATR14 at 28.29 and RV20 at 10.5% show volatility has risen, yet the price has not moved sharply, suggesting relatively stable fund flows. If open interest continues to fall while prices rise, the short-covering thesis will be further confirmed; conversely, if open interest rises while prices fall, watch for long profit-taking risk.
The current positioning structure shows market participants are divided on the near-term direction, but short-covering momentum still dominates. The combination of rising top-20 net longs and falling main-contract notional positioning provides important support for the moderately bullish call.
V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value
On cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio stands at 69.07 (1Y percentile 74.6%, 3Y percentile 24.87%), showing gold relatively strong versus silver, though the low 3Y percentile suggests silver is relatively stronger over the longer term. The copper/gold ratio is 1.59 (1Y percentile 98.02%, 3Y percentile 58.33%), at an extremely high 1Y percentile, showing copper significantly outperforming gold and implying strong growth expectations. The oil/gold ratio is 0.0218 (1Y percentile 89.68%, 3Y percentile 47.09%), at a high 1Y percentile, showing crude relatively strong versus gold. The crack spread is USD 66.75/bbl, reflecting refining margin levels.
Regarding international versus China market comparisons, rebar is a China-specific product with no direct international counterpart, but risk appetite can be inferred indirectly via the copper/gold and oil/gold ratios. The elevated copper/gold ratio shows industrial metals outperforming gold, implying improving economic expectations and support for the black complex. The elevated oil/gold ratio shows energy outperforming gold, possibly reflecting inflation expectations. With DXY at 102.23 and the 10Y at 5.24% remaining elevated but without a sharp sell-off, dollar strength has not fully suppressed commodities.
Taken together, the copper/gold and oil/gold ratios both sit at high levels, showing risk assets outperforming safe havens and providing indirect support to rebar. Although the gold/silver ratio is at a high 1Y percentile, the lower 3Y percentile suggests silver is relatively stronger over the long term, possibly reflecting inflation concerns. The current relative-value structure supports the moderately bullish call, but changes in the dollar and UST yields should be monitored for their impact on risk appetite.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
Based on a statistical sample of 20 trading days from the same date over the past 15 years, Rebar's historical performance in mid-October exhibits clear seasonal divergence. Data shows an average return of -0.33% and a median decline of -1.3% over this period; among the 15 annual samples, only 6 years recorded gains, implying a 40% probability of upside. From a purely statistical standpoint, the current juncture sits within a seasonally bearish window, as the market often faces pressure from a demand off-season or inventory accumulation. However, historical extremes provide an important reference for structural resilience: the same period in 2016 saw an extreme gain of +27.27%, while 2021 recorded a deep decline of -25.76%. This wide range of extreme moves indicates that relying solely on seasonal means carries significant risk, as marginal changes in supply-demand fundamentals can often override seasonal patterns. The current price of 3080 holds above the lower bound of the 20-day channel at 3060; combined with seasonal statistics, the market may be trading on expectations that seasonal headwinds have been fully priced in. While historical statistics point to a bearish backdrop, the extreme rally in 2016 demonstrates that seasonal patterns can easily fail under specific macro or policy drivers. Therefore, seasonal data should serve only as background reference and not as the sole basis for directional decisions; it must be assessed in conjunction with current fund flows and night session momentum.
VII. Scenario Analysis
Based on the current technical structure and fund flows, we construct three scenarios—base, bullish, and bearish—with probability allocations following risk-reward principles. The base scenario carries a 55% probability, with the core logic being range-bound repair following short covering. The trigger condition is a daily close firmly above 3065.33 (S1 pivot), with the night session sustaining levels above 3080. Under this scenario, price will test overhead resistance, targeting R1 at 3094.33; if breached, it will further challenge the upper bound of the 20-day channel at 3183. The corresponding operation is to hold existing long positions or accumulate on dips near 3080, with a stop-loss set at 3048.8. The bullish scenario carries a 30% probability, triggered by a daily close effectively breaking above 3094.33 (R1 pivot) alongside a continued increase in net long positions among the top 20 seats. In this scenario, market sentiment warms and price could accelerate upward, targeting 3122 or even 3136. The corresponding operation is to add to longs, moving the stop-loss up to 3062.8, with a target of 3136. The bearish scenario carries a 15% probability, triggered by a daily close effectively breaking below 3065.33 (S1 pivot) alongside a sharp reduction in main contract notional positions. In this scenario, short covering ends and selling pressure resurfaces, with price potentially testing the 20-day low of 3060 or lower. The corresponding operation is to close long positions, stay on the sidelines, or reverse to short, with a stop-loss set above 3100. The three scenarios sum to 100% probability; the direction of the base scenario remains consistent with the earlier conclusion of “bullish bias,” emphasizing the repair logic above key support levels.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Execution strictly follows the established risk control plan, with entry, stop-loss, and target levels all based on programmatic risk conversion results. The first long entry is at 3080, with a stop-loss at 3048.8 and a target of 3122, over a 1–2 week horizon, yielding a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.3. The stop-loss distance is 31.2 points, equal to 1.1×ATR (ATR14 28.286); with a contract multiplier of 10, the risk per lot is 342 CNY (including fees and slippage). A single-trade risk budget of 66,920 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 195 lots. The second long entry is at 3094, with a stop-loss at 3062.8 and a target of 3136, over a 1–5 day horizon, yielding a risk-reward ratio of 1:1.3. The stop-loss distance is likewise 31.2 points, equal to 1.1×ATR, with a risk per lot of 342 CNY and a single-trade risk budget of 66,920 CNY corresponding to a reference cap of 195 lots. The stop-loss levels at 3048.8 and 3062.8 correspond respectively to below the S1 pivot and below the R1 pivot, ensuring timely exit if key support fails. Position sizing strictly adheres to the risk budget to avoid excessive exposure. Rules for adding or cutting positions: if price breaks above 3094 with rising open interest, the second tranche may be added; if price falls below 3065.33, all long positions must be closed immediately. This strategy aims to capitalize on short-covering momentum while strictly controlling downside risk.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
This week's focus is on China's CPI y/y and PPI y/y data, due for release at 09:30 Beijing time on 10-14. The data carries high impact for the black series, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors, and may trigger market volatility. If the data beats expectations, it could further bolster demand expectations for the black series; if it falls short, it may weigh on prices. No significant data releases are scheduled for other dates, and the market is expected to continue its range-bound pattern driven by technicals and fund flows. Investors should closely monitor price action around the data release to adjust trading strategies accordingly.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.