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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Long ZSX26: Crush-Driven Rebound, Pivot 1287 Holds | 2026-10-11

We are LONG soybeans (ZSX26.CBT) with invalidation on a daily close below the 1274.75 pivot S1 (settle basis). The call rests on three pillars: first, price has reclaimed the 1287 pivot P after the 2026-10-09 session low of 1269.75, settling at 1292 [settle 2026-10-09] with a +1.08% 5-day gain, while the 20-day change of -0.35% shows the setback has been shallow rather than trend-breaking. Second, the US soybean crush margin stands at 2.6054 USD/bu [2026-10-09], in the 67.06% 1-year and 89.02% 3-year percentiles, up from 2.4614 twenty sessions earlier — processors are bidding for beans, a direct demand floor. Third, the term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -16.75, -1.28%, roll yield -7.68%), which is a carry cost for longs but signals no prompt squeeze and keeps downside orderly. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is constructive: mean +2.13%, median +2.36%, up 10 of 15 years. Realized volatility is low at RV20 15.4% with ATR14 21.45 (1.66% of price), so a stop beyond S1 at roughly one ATR is defensible. The week-ahead China data (CPI, PPI, FAI, IP, retail sales) is the swing factor; a daily close below 1274.75 negates the view and targets 1257.5 (S2).