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データ基準日: 2026-10-09 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D channel breakdown, sell rallies toward 647 | 2026-10-11

We are bearish CBOT wheat (ZWZ26.CBT) with invalidation on a daily settle back above 685.17 (R1). The prior session settled at 671 [settle 2026-10-09], down 1.79% on the day, with 5D -1.76% and 20D -7.48% (settle), and the 10-09 bar carved a fresh 20-day low at 661.5 after trading as high as 687.5 — a full-range rejection from the upper end of the day's span. Price sits at the 13th percentile of the 20-day channel (661.5–736), so the market is already near the bottom of its recent range, but the trend is decisively lower and ATR14 of 17.34 (2.58% of price, full daily range) means downside gaps can extend quickly. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-10-02) closed at 683, -2.88% w/w, confirming the rollover; the current week is unfinished and offers no weekly-close signal. Term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14.25, -2.08%, roll yield -8.32%), a persistent drag on long exposure. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is flat (mean -0.02%, up 7 of 15 years) and offers no offset. We sell strength toward 647.33 (S2), with a stop above 685.
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