1. Core Views
1) 【Three Key Judgments】①Lithium Carbonate plunged to the daily limit down, -11.79%, with the main contract falling on an open interest build; the 20-day percentile of 0.1% has touched the bottom of the range, but S1 at 114433.33 has not yet formed reliable support — sell into rebounds. ②The energy & chemicals sector saw a sharp divergence in relative strength: Methanol rose +6.04% on an open interest build, while PTA/PX/EG pulled back in the night session; the TA processing fee is only CNY 251/t, at the 18th percentile over 120 days — go long on methanol processing margin expansion. ③In the black complex, Coking Coal and Coke led gains but weakened in the night session; Rebar/HRB rose slightly on an open interest build while Iron Ore net shorts expanded; the coil-rebar spread at CNY 165 sits at the 2nd percentile historically, leaving limited room for further compression.
2. Night Session & Overseas Recap
Overnight main theme: The energy & chemicals chain continued to diverge in the night session — PTA closed the night session at 6,632, +0.67% vs. the day session; PX closed at 9,746, +0.81% vs. the day session, a modest night-session rebound, but Ethylene Glycol (EG) closed the night session at 5,136, -1.5% vs. the day session and -1.95% vs. settlement, making it the weakest link in the energy & chemicals complex. Crude oil SC closed the night session at 734.2, -1% vs. the day session but +0.52% vs. settlement; the strength in the international market, with WTI up +2.06% overnight to close at USD 93.74/bbl and Brent up +1.84% to close at USD 106.65/bbl, failed to transmit effectively to Chinese chemicals. Precious metals fell across the board in the night session, with SHFE Gold closing at 902.88, -0.54% vs. settlement, and SHFE Silver closing at 14,690, -1.1% vs. settlement; in the international market, GC fell -0.61% overnight to close at USD 4,190.6/oz and SI fell -0.88% to close at USD 60.513/oz; gold and silver both edged higher in the Asian morning session, but with limited momentum.
1. SHFE Nickel (NI) closed the night session at 118,160, -0.4% vs. settlement; the day session's -1.26% made it the weakest in the nonferrous complex, with a 20-day percentile of just 3%
2. SHFE Aluminum (AL) closed the night session at 23,490, -0.4% vs. settlement; the day session was +0.36%, but the 5-day -2.03% and 20-day -3.4% point to a weak trend
3. SHFE Copper (CU) closed the night session at 110,890, +0.11% vs. settlement; with HG in the international market up +0.82%, it was the relative outperformer in the nonferrous complex
4. Coking Coal (JM) closed the night session at 1,550.5, +0.03% vs. settlement; momentum faded in the night session after the day session's +1.88%
5. Polypropylene (PP) closed the night session at 9,482, +1.37% vs. settlement; it continued to strengthen in the night session after the day session's +1.06%, the strongest in the chemicals sector
3. Macro Landscape
The US Dollar Index sentiment reading is 25 (greed territory), and combined with the strong overnight rebound in WTI crude in the international market (+2.06%), global risk appetite shows a divergent pattern — rising inflation expectations on the energy side are pressuring precious metals (GC -0.61%), while nonferrous copper (HG +0.82%) is benefiting from a repair in growth expectations. On the China side, M2 y/y is expected at 7.4%, a slight decline from the prior 7.5%, while new loans are expected at CNY 1025B, a sharp rebound from the prior CNY 60B; expectations of a credit impulse repair are a marginal positive for the black and nonferrous complexes, but attention should be paid to the potential inflationary spillover from China's CPI on 10-14, expected at 1.0% (prior 0.8%), and PPI, expected at 4.4% (prior 3.8%), both moving higher. Internationally, US Core CPI m/m on 10-14 is expected at 0.2% (prior 0.3%), a slight decline, while CPI y/y is expected at 3.6% (prior 3.4%), continuing to rise; a beat would reinforce the Fed pause logic and weigh on SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver; the Fed Chairman Warsh speech on 10-16 is the key variable for the dollar's direction this week.
4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis
The spot side shows a pattern of nonferrous destocking alongside energy & chemicals restocking: SHFE Aluminum warrants stand at 100,292 tonnes, down 13,318 tonnes (-11.72%) on the day, the largest drawdown in the market, corresponding to a strengthening aluminum basis and tight spot supply; SHFE Copper warrants stand at 8,785 tonnes, up 500 tonnes (+6.04%) on the day, the only inventory build in the nonferrous complex; crude oil warrants stand at 4,216,000 barrels, down 730,000 barrels (-14.76%) on the day, a significant drawdown corresponding to SC near-month strength. Among chemicals, PX warrants increased by 1,157 lots (from 0 to 1,157), the largest build in the energy & chemicals complex, corresponding to ample PX spot supply; Glass warrants stand at 2,085 lots, up 100 lots (+5.04%) on the day, continuing the restocking trend.
| Instrument | Warrants | Unit | Daily Change | Date |
|---|
| SHFE Aluminum | 100,292 | tonnes | -13,318 (-11.72%) | 2026-10-12 |
| Crude Oil | 4,216,000 | barrels | -730,000 (-14.76%) | 2026-10-12 |
| SHFE Copper | 8,785 | tonnes | +500 (+6.04%) | 2026-10-12 |
| PX | 1,157 | lots | +1,157 (new) | 2026-10-12 |
| Glass | 2,085 | lots | +100 (+5.04%) | 2026-10-12 |
| SHFE Silver | 1,475,739 | kg | -6,754 (-0.46%) | 2026-10-12 |
| SHFE Zinc | 77,910 | tonnes | -1,616 (-2.03%) | 2026-10-12 |
| Rebar | 75,582 | tonnes | -3,636 (-4.59%) | 2026-10-12 |
| Palm Oil | 2,783 | lots | -77 (-2.69%) | 2026-10-12 |
| Rapeseed Oil | 1,274 | lots | -39 (-2.97%) | 2026-10-12 |
5. Positioning & Fund Flows
The top 20 seats overall show a pattern of active long builds in the black complex, two-way increases in energy & chemicals, and added shorts in agricultural products. In the black complex, Rebar net longs of 50,000 lots rose 18,867 lots on the day and HRC net longs of 104,991 lots rose 10,108 lots on the day, forming the strongest long-build signal; in energy & chemicals, Methanol net longs of 122,767 lots rose 18,811 lots on the day and PTA net longs of 102,276 lots rose 5,315 lots on the day, showing continued capital inflows. In agricultural products, Soybean Meal net shorts of 520,141 lots fell 44,984 lots on the day (a large-scale short exit) and Rapeseed Meal net shorts of 63,526 lots fell 9,561 lots on the day; in the oils complex, Palm Oil net shorts of 145,569 lots and Rapeseed Oil net shorts of 15,617 lots fell 10,199 lots on the day, indicating partial profit-taking by shorts.
1. Rebar net longs rose +18,867 lots on the day, the largest long build in the market
2. HRC net longs rose +10,108 lots on the day, just behind Rebar, with long strength concentrated in flat products
3. Methanol net longs rose +18,811 lots on the day, the strongest capital inflow in the chemicals sector
4. Soybean Meal net shorts fell -44,984 lots on the day, a large-scale short exit
5. Palm Oil net shorts of 145,569 lots changed -1,958 lots on the day, a modest short reduction
6. Technicals & Trade Strategy
Best Trade Today
No trade ideas meet the entry criteria today (stop-loss distance and risk/reward check); stay on the sidelines.
Lithium Carbonate: After the main contract hit the limit down on an open interest build, the 20-day percentile of 0.1% has touched the bottom of the range, but S1 at 114433.33 has not yet formed reliable support; a rebound to near R1 at 120533.33 is the window to sell, and a break below S1 opens up further downside.
- SHFE Copper holds above S1 at 109,180; the 20-day percentile of 70.1% is firm, watch for a confirmed break above R1 at 110,630 in the short term
- SHFE Gold's 20-day percentile of 21.8% is low; the 900 round-number level is being tested repeatedly, trade the range
- Rebar/HRC rose slightly on an open interest build, but the 20-day percentiles of just 24.4%/12.4% suggest limited rebound strength
7. Inter-Commodity Spreads
The PTA processing fee (TA − 0.655 × PX) is only CNY 255/t, at the 18th percentile over 120 days (range 107–618); the daily change of +13 and 5-day change of +86 show a modest repair from the bottom, but it remains at historically low levels, with PX strength continuing to squeeze PTA on the cost side. The coil-rebar spread (HC − RB) is CNY 165/t, at the 2nd percentile over 120 days (range 162–274); the daily change of -10 and 5-day change of -11 are historically extreme, with the premium of flat products over rebar almost fully compressed. The soybean-palm oil spread (Y − P) is -CNY 716/t, at the 91st percentile over 120 days (range -1,340 to -603); the daily change of -87 shows the palm oil premium over soybean oil continuing to widen. The oil-meal ratio (Y ÷ M) is 2.651, at the 12th percentile over 120 days (range 2.58–2.892); the daily change of +0.001 and 5-day change of +0.014 place it in a historically low range, with oils weak relative to meals.
8. Risk Factors
1. After Lithium Carbonate's limit-down close, a further sharp gap lower the next session could trigger an exchange margin hike and an expansion of the daily price limit; with GFEX.LC main contract open interest at 429,039 lots (+7,039 lots) in an open-interest-build decline, the risk of a short squeeze intensifies.
2. If the 10-14 US CPI print surprises to the upside (CPI y/y consensus 3.6%), a stronger US dollar would directly pressure SHFE Gold (settle 907.78) and SHFE Silver (settle 14,854); GC's overnight -0.61% already serves as an early warning.
3. If WTI crude's overnight +2.06% extends, cost-push across the energy-chemicals complex could narrow or even reverse the night-session declines in PTA/PX/EG; the current short thesis on EG, trading -1.95% versus settle in the night session, faces the risk of being invalidated by crude.
4. Coking Coal and Coke night-session momentum is fading (JM +0.03%, J -0.15%) after large day-session gains; if long liquidation emerges in the 10-13 day session, the top-20 seats' Coking Coal net long of 20,727 lots (down 6,472 lots d/d) shows longs are already cutting.
5. If both China CPI and PPI beat expectations on 10-14 (PPI consensus 4.4%), the black-complex inflation trade could be reinforced or reversed; Iron Ore's net short of 40,200 lots faces a policy-driven shock.
9. This Week's Watchlist
- Beijing 10-13 16:03 | M2 Money Supply y/y (consensus 7.4%, prior 7.5%) and New Loans (consensus 1025B, prior 60B) released together, affecting black, nonferrous and chemicals; watch whether the credit pulse rebounds more than expected and drives a repair in industrial-demand expectations.
- Beijing 10-14 09:30 | CPI y/y (consensus 1.0%, prior 0.8%) and PPI y/y (consensus 4.4%, prior 3.8%) released together, affecting black, nonferrous and chemicals; a PPI beat would reinforce the industrial-inflation trade, while a higher CPI could stoke concerns of monetary tightening.
- Beijing 10-14 20:30 | US Core CPI m/m (consensus 0.2%, prior 0.3%) and CPI y/y (consensus 3.6%, prior 3.4%) released together, affecting SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver and nonferrous (via the dollar); a CPI y/y above 3.6% would strengthen the Fed pause narrative, a direct negative for precious metals.
- Beijing 10-15 20:30 | Core PPI m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%), PPI m/m (consensus 0.6%, prior 0.4%), Retail Sales m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 1.2%) and Core Retail Sales m/m (consensus 0.6%, prior 1.4%) released in a cluster, affecting SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver and nonferrous; expectations of a sharp retail slowdown could weigh on the dollar and indirectly support precious metals.
- Beijing 10-16 11:30 | Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks, affecting SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver and nonferrous (via the dollar); watch for any change in tone on the inflation path and the pace of rate cuts.
Yesterday's View Review
- SHFE.CU LONG entry 109,900 stop 108,400 target 112,330 (1-5d, conv 5) → holding (filled) | last settle 110,770 (unrealized +0.79%) | thesis: SHFE Copper settled at 109,570, trend-following after breaking R1 109,890, targeting the 20-day high of 112,330; the 20-day trend is still up +0.42%, but watch for post-holiday inventory accumulation and weakness in Asian early trade internationally.
- SHFE.RB LONG entry 3,103 stop 3,075 target 3,165 (1-2w, conv 6) → stop-out P&L -0.68% exit 2026-10-08 | thesis: Rebar settled at 3,116, with top-20 seats adding 12,783 lots to net long (both sides cutting, shorts cutting more), going long on a pullback toward S1 3,103, target 3,165.
- Statistics (system-computed): 2 views · limit triggers 1/1 (100%) · average MFE +0.53R (n=2) · average MAE 0.75R (n=2) · realized -1.00R (n=1)
No trade setups cleared for publication today.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.