1. Core Views
Precious metals gave back sharply in the night session: SHFE Gold night session closed at 900.32, -0.74% vs. day session close; SHFE Silver closed at 14457, -1.94% vs. day session close. Internationally, GC in the Asian early session at 4184.66 was only +0.18% vs. settlement, and SI in the Asian early session at 59.357 was -0.28% vs. settlement, leaving insufficient momentum for the gold-silver ratio to repair. The driver was USD strength and pre-CPI long liquidation, transmitting into SHFE Gold breaking below the 900 round-number level and SHFE Silver breaking below 14500; if they fail to reclaim these levels intraday, downside space opens. SHFE Gold: look down to 885 (extension below S1 901.83), invalidated on a reclaim of 910; SHFE Silver: look down to 14285 (20-day low), invalidated on a reclaim of 14700.
Energy & chemicals outperformed against the trend: SC night session closed at 742.4, +1.42% vs. settlement; PP +1%; EG +1.4%; MA +0.99%. WTI in the Asian early session at 94.68 was +0.57% vs. settlement, while Brent in the Asian early session at 106.26 was -0.37% vs. settlement; the geopolitical premium on the crude side supported polyester-chain costs. The driver was firm crude and a repair in PTA/PX processing margins, transmitting into TA processing fees at CNY 220/t sitting at the 11th percentile, keeping the long-margin-expansion logic intact; the night-session catch-up rally in EG and PP validated the intra-chain rotation in relative strength.
Black sector divergence intensified: Coking Coal JM rose +1.03% in the day session and +8.15% over 5 days, leading the board, but the night session closed at 1560.5, +0% vs. settlement, signaling fading momentum. Rebar saw an open interest build of 29,904 lots while edging down -0.19%; Iron Ore net shorts expanded to 47,649 lots, up 8,991 lots on the day. The driver was expectations of an independent supply contraction in coking coal versus bearish demand-side views on iron ore, transmitting into the coil-rebar spread at CNY 165 sitting at a historically extreme low 3rd percentile and the rebar paper mill margin at CNY 986 at the 72nd percentile; the black complex is broadly weak, and the independent coking coal rally is hard to sustain.
2. Night Session & Overseas Recap
Overnight, the energy & chemicals chain outperformed against the trend while precious metals gave back sharply; the main theme was clear: SC on the crude side led the entire market with a +1.42% night-session gain, the polyester chain's EG/PP/MA followed, precious metals (SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver) erased day-session gains in the night session and broke key supports, and the black complex broadly weakened in the night session with only coking coal flat. The transmission path: WTI in the Asian early session at 94.68, +0.57% vs. settlement, supported energy & chemicals costs, while GC in the Asian early session at 4184.66 saw only a marginal repair and SI in the Asian early session at 59.357 remained weak, keeping precious metals under pressure.
- INE.SC Crude Oil night session closed at 742.4, +1.42% vs. settlement and +1.99% vs. day session close, leading the entire market
- SHFE.AG SHFE Silver night session closed at 14457, -1.57% vs. settlement and -1.94% vs. day session close, the largest decline
- SHFE.AU SHFE Gold night session closed at 900.32, -0.28% vs. settlement and -0.74% vs. day session close, breaking below 900
- DCE.EG Ethylene Glycol night session closed at 5198, +1.4% vs. settlement, a polyester-chain catch-up rally
- DCE.PP Polypropylene night session closed at 9529, +1% vs. settlement, with +7.78% over 5 days extending strength
3. Macro Landscape
China CPI and PPI are due at 09:30 Beijing time today; expectations are CPI y/y 1.0% (prior 0.8%) and PPI y/y 4.4% (prior 3.8%), with surprise thresholds of ±0.2% and ±0.6% respectively. If PPI beats to the upside, it will directly lift the cost-side valuation of the black and nonferrous sectors, but a higher CPI may reinforce expectations of tighter Chinese monetary policy, weighing on precious metals. At 10:03 the trade balance is expected at 790B (prior 809B); at 16:03 M2 is expected at 7.4% (prior 7.5%); total social financing is expected at 1025B (prior 60B), a sharp rebound that, if realized, would improve demand expectations for the black complex.
In the evening at 20:30, US Core CPI m/m is expected at 0.2% (prior 0.3%) and CPI y/y at 3.6% (prior 3.4%), with surprise thresholds of ±0.1% and ±0.2%. If US CPI beats, USD strength will directly pressure SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver, and the nonferrous complex, narrowing China-market premiums via the FX channel; conversely, it would open a rebound window for precious metals. Fed Chairman Warsh's remarks at 10-15, along with core PPI and retail sales data at 10-16, will drive precious metals and nonferrous direction in the back half of the week.
4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis
The spot tightness theme diverged sharply: the black complex saw a large build in warrants — HRC +33,564 tonnes (+17.22%), Rebar +7,365 tonnes (+9.74%), Glass +300 sheets (+14.39%) — consistent with the extremely low coil-rebar spread percentile and weakening steel basis; energy & chemicals and nonferrous saw drawdowns — Palm Oil +1,980 lots (+71.15%) rose but in small absolute terms, SHFE Aluminum -4,987 tonnes (-4.97%) and SHFE Copper +622 tonnes (+7.08%) diverged, and Rapeseed Meal -1,070 sheets (-13.05%) drew down notably. Precious metal warrants were steady — SHFE Gold flat, SHFE Silver -2,595 kg (-0.18%) — with silver warrant drawdowns consistent with the industry backdrop of a sixth consecutive supply deficit of 46 million oz.
| Instrument | Warrant Quantity | Unit | Daily Change | Date |
|---|
| SHFE Copper | 9,407 | tonnes | +622 (+7.08%) | 2026-10-13 |
| SHFE Aluminum | 95,305 | tonnes | -4,987 (-4.97%) | 2026-10-13 |
| HRC | 228,527 | tonnes | +33,564 (+17.22%) | 2026-10-13 |
| Rebar | 82,947 | tonnes | +7,365 (+9.74%) | 2026-10-13 |
| Palm Oil | 4,763 | lots | +1,980 (+71.15%) | 2026-10-13 |
| Rapeseed Meal | 7,130 | sheets | -1,070 (-13.05%) | 2026-10-13 |
| Methanol | 5,716 | sheets | +500 (+9.59%) | 2026-10-13 |
| Glass | 2,385 | sheets | +300 (+14.39%) | 2026-10-13 |
5. Positioning & Fund Flows
The overall pattern is active long building in energy & chemicals and black, with shorts dominant in precious metals and nonferrous. Coking Coal JM saw an open interest build of 19,542 lots with a +1.03% daily gain, an active long offensive; Rebar saw an open interest build of 29,904 lots while prices edged lower, signaling intensifying long-short disagreement; Glass saw an open interest build of 108,101 lots while falling -1.5%, an active short attack. SHFE Aluminum saw an open interest cut of 10,362 lots with a -1.12% decline as longs exited; SHFE Nickel saw an open interest cut of 5,559 lots and Lithium Carbonate a cut of 6,647 lots, both rebound moves of a short-covering nature.
- DCE.JM Coking Coal top-20 seats net long 15,889 lots, daily change -5,518 lots (both longs and shorts added, shorts added more)
- SHFE.RB Rebar top-20 seats net long 37,436 lots, daily change -9,236 lots (both longs and shorts added, shorts added more)
- DCE.I Iron Ore top-20 seats net short 47,649 lots, daily change -8,991 lots (shorts actively adding)
- SHFE.AG SHFE Silver top-20 seats net long 53,243 lots, daily change -3,539 lots (longs cutting)
- CZCE.MA Methanol top-20 seats net long 131,062 lots, daily change +1,649 lots (longs actively adding)
6. Technicals & Trade Strategy
Best Trade Today
No trade idea meets the entry criteria today (stop-loss distance and risk-reward verification); stay on the sidelines.
Precious metals break key supports, opening downside space. SHFE Gold's night session close of 900.32 broke below the 900 round number and S1 901.83; SHFE Silver closed at 14457, below 14500 and approaching the 20-day low of 14285. If they fail to reclaim these levels intraday, the downtrend is confirmed. SHFE Gold watch level 885 (lower bound of the 20-day range), invalidated on a reclaim of 910; SHFE Silver watch level 14285, invalidated on a reclaim of 14700.
- Energy & chemicals biased long: SC night session closed at 742.4, still below R1 753.6; EG closed at 5198, back above S1 5109; PP closed at 9529, approaching R1 9501.67; TA processing fees at CNY 220/t at the 11th percentile — go long margin expansion
- Black biased weak: Rebar closed at 3077, below S1 3078.33; Coking Coal night session closed at 1560.5, +0% vs. settlement, momentum fading; Iron Ore net shorts expanded to 47,649 lots
7. Inter-Commodity Spreads
The spread structure reflects an extreme compression of petrochemical chain margins and a divergence in steel product margins. TA processing fee at CNY 220/t sits at the 11th percentile of the past 120 days (range 160–618), with a daily change of -36 and a 5-day change of +19; the screen-based processing margin is at a historical low, so the logic of going long on processing margin expansion holds. The HRC-Rebar spread at CNY 165/t sits at the 3rd percentile (range 162–274), having already touched a historical floor; further compression is limited, and the probability of a valuation recovery in HRC relative to Rebar is rising. The Soybean Oil–Palm Oil spread at CNY -676/t sits at the 96th percentile (range -1340–-603), indicating Palm Oil is extremely strong relative to Soybean Oil; the oil-to-meal ratio at 2.663 sits at the 15th percentile (range 2.58–2.892), with Soybean Oil weak relative to Soybean Meal. The Rebar screen-based gross margin at CNY 986/t sits at the 72nd percentile (range 844–1054), placing steel screen-based margins at a historically elevated level.
8. Risk Factors
- SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver have broken below key support in the night session; if CPI comes in above expectations, downside space opens further, with SHFE Gold 885 and SHFE Silver 14285 as levels to watch
- Coking Coal's independent rally is hard to sustain; with the HRC-Rebar spread at CNY 165/t at a 3rd-percentile extreme low, compression room is limited, but the broader black complex remains in a weak pattern
- The petrochemical chain's long-processing-margin logic depends on crude strength; WTI at 94.68 in the Asian early session, +0.57% versus settlement, provides cost-side support, but Brent at 106.26 in the Asian early session, -0.37% versus settlement, signals offshore divergence
9. This Week's Watchlist
- Beijing 10-14 09:30 China CPI y/y (consensus 1.0%, prior 0.8%) and PPI y/y (consensus 4.4%, prior 3.8%) → affects black, nonferrous, chemicals; watch for a PPI beat lifting cost-side valuations and a higher CPI constraining monetary policy.
- Beijing 10-14 10:03 China trade balance (consensus 790B, prior 809B) and 16:03 M2 y/y (consensus 7.4%, prior 7.5%) → affects black, nonferrous, chemicals; TSF data expected at 1025B, a sharp rebound, to validate the transmission of credit easing into black demand.
- Beijing 10-14 20:30 US Core CPI m/m (consensus 0.2%, prior 0.3%) and CPI y/y (consensus 3.6%, prior 3.4%) → affects SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver, nonferrous; a beat strengthens the dollar and pressures precious metals, while a miss opens a rebound window for gold and silver.
- Beijing 10-15 20:30 US Core PPI m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%) and retail sales m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 1.2%) → affects SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver, nonferrous; a sharp pullback in retail sales would reinforce the recession narrative and benefit precious metals.
- Beijing 10-16 11:30 Fed Chairman Warsh speech → affects SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver, nonferrous; watch for rate-path guidance setting the tone for the dollar and precious metals direction.
Yesterday's View Review
- SHFE.CU LONG entry 109900 stop 108400 target 112330 (1-5d, conv 5) → holding (filled) | last settle 110900 (unrealized +0.91%) | thesis: SHFE Copper settled at 109570, trend-following after breaking above R1 109890, targeting the 20-day high of 112330; the 20-day is still up 0.42%, but beware of post-holiday inventory accumulation and weakness in international markets during the Asian early session.
- SHFE.RB LONG entry 3103 stop 3075 target 3165 (1-2w, conv 6) → stop-loss P&L -0.68% exit 2026-10-08 | thesis: Rebar settled at 3116, with the top-20 seats' net long up 12,783 lots on the day (both longs and shorts cutting, with shorts cutting more), going long on a pullback near S1 3103, targeting 3165.
- Statistics (system-computed): 2 views · limit triggers 1/1 (100%) · average MFE +0.53R (n=2) · average MAE 0.75R (n=2) · realized -1.00R (n=1)
No trade setups cleared for publication today.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.