1. Core Views
Precious metals gave back sharply in the night session, with SHFE Silver leading the entire market lower. The driver was USD strength and pre-CPI long liquidation, transmitting into SHFE Silver breaking below the 20-day low of 14,203 before accelerating to 13,525, -6.27% vs settlement; if it fails to reclaim 14,000 intraday, downside opens toward the 13,483 night session low. SHFE Gold weakened in tandem to 885.76, -1.61% vs settlement, with the 881.82 night session low as the next target; a move back above 900 invalidates. Crude's geopolitical premium supports petrochemical chain costs: SC closed the night session at 729.5, -2.28% vs settlement, giving back part of the gain but still +4.42% over 5 days; within the energy-chemicals complex, PP +1% and EG +3.3% confirm intra-chain rotation, while the CZCE PTA processing fee of CNY 236/t sits at the 13th percentile with room to expand — the long processing-margin thesis remains intact. Black metals divergence intensified: Coking Coal JM is +6.04% over 5 days and led gains, but closed the night session at 1,477, -4.86% vs settlement, with momentum fading; Rebar added open interest and slipped -0.39%, while Iron Ore net shorts widened to 38,042 lots; the coil-rebar spread of CNY 164/t sits at the 2nd percentile — an extremely low level that limits HRC downside — and the Rebar market gross margin of CNY 995/t at the 77th percentile reflects adequate finished-steel margins but insufficient upside drivers.
2. Night Session & Overseas Recap
Overnight, precious metals became the market's largest concentration of shorts: SHFE Silver plunged -6.27% vs settlement in the night session and SHFE Gold fell -1.61%; internationally, COMEX Silver settled at USD 55.877/oz, -6.13% on the day and the biggest loser, with the Asian morning print of 55.888 up only +0.02%, signaling weak buying interest. Energy-chemicals outperformed against the trend on crude strength and petrochemical chain cost support: SC closed the night session at 729.5, -2.28% vs settlement, retracing daytime gains but still +4.42% over 5 days; EG +0.51% and PP +0.39% in the night session confirmed intra-chain rotation. In black metals, Coking Coal closed the night session at 1,477, -4.86% vs settlement and led declines, Coke fell -3.02%, while Rebar and HRC slipped -0.49% and -0.4% respectively. Internationally, WTI settled at 95.09, +1.01%, and Brent at 106.06, +0.35%, both easing slightly in the Asian morning; Copper HG settled at 6.6605, -0.97%, and weakened further to 6.6215 in the Asian morning.
- SHFE Silver night session close 13,525, -5.35% vs daytime close, -6.27% vs settlement
- SHFE Gold night session close 885.76, -1.21% vs daytime close, -1.61% vs settlement
- SC Crude night session close 729.5, -2.28% vs settlement, still +4.42% over 5 days
- Coking Coal night session close 1,477, -4.86% vs settlement, momentum fading after +6.04% over 5 days
- MEG night session close 5,270, +0.51% vs settlement, +3.3% in the daytime session, leading energy-chemicals
3. Macro Landscape
A firm US Dollar Index combined with active long liquidation ahead of US CPI data was the core macro driver of the precious-metals selloff. SHFE Gold main contract nominal open interest stood at CNY 200.08bn, down CNY 4.593bn on the day (-5,122 lots); SHFE Silver added 5,314 lots in open interest yet prices crashed -2.72%, indicating active short building rather than passive long exit. The gold-silver ratio retreated from elevated levels, but the international silver price in the Asian morning rebounded only +0.02%, leaving insufficient repair momentum. On crude, the geopolitical premium continues to support: WTI settled at 95.09, +1.01%, and Brent at 106.06, +0.35%; SC held the 729.5 line after its night-session pullback, transmitting strength to petrochemical chain costs, with the CZCE PTA processing fee of CNY 236/t at the 13th percentile and room to expand. In China, a series of data — fixed-asset investment, industrial production, retail sales — will be released on October 19, with LPR quotes and GDP due on October 20; black and non-ferrous sectors are likely to range-trade and digest ahead of the releases.
4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis
The spot end shows clear divergence: precious-metals warehouse warrants saw SHFE Silver de-stocking of 12,181 kg (-0.83%), a signal of spot tightness after the price crash, while SHFE Gold warrants were flat. In non-ferrous, SHFE Copper warrants surged 14,050 tonnes (+149.36%) to 23,457 tonnes, with significant post-holiday accumulation pressure; SHFE Aluminum de-stocked 2,385 tonnes (-2.5%) and SHFE Zinc de-stocked 1,396 tonnes (-1.78%), indicating tightness at the spot end. In black metals, HRC warrants rose 10,913 tonnes (+4.78%) to 239,440 tonnes, reflecting finished-steel inventory build pressure; Coke warrants fell 101 lots (-9.58%) while Coking Coal added 1,177 lots in new warrants. In chemicals, CZCE PTA warrants jumped 7,590 warrants (+757.49%) to 8,592; MEG de-stocked 386 lots (-6.2%); Soda Ash added 382 warrants (+11.94%) and Glass added 500 warrants (+20.96%).
| Instrument | Warrants | Unit | Daily Change | Date |
|---|
| SHFE Copper | 23,457 | tonnes | +14,050 (+149.36%) | 2026-10-14 |
| SHFE Silver | 1,460,963 | kg | -12,181 (-0.83%) | 2026-10-14 |
| HRC | 239,440 | tonnes | +10,913 (+4.78%) | 2026-10-14 |
| CZCE PTA | 8,592 | warrants | +7,590 (+757.49%) | 2026-10-14 |
| MEG | 5,840 | lots | -386 (-6.2%) | 2026-10-14 |
5. Positioning & Fund Flows
The overall balance of power shows precious metals dominated by shorts, energy-chemicals seeing long builds, and black metals diverging. In precious metals, SHFE Gold fell on open interest cuts (longs exiting), while SHFE Silver's price crash despite an open interest build signals active short accumulation. In energy-chemicals, MA rose on a 38,100-lot open interest build (active longs), EG added 12,261 lots, and PP cut 4,648 lots. In black metals, HRC added 38,240 lots with net longs widening to 116,424 lots (+9,881 on the day); Rebar net longs shrank to 18,335 lots (-14,434 on the day); Iron Ore net shorts stood at 38,042 lots, up 7,540 on the day.
- HRC top-20 seats net long 116,424 lots, +9,881 on the day (active long build)
- Rapeseed Meal top-20 seats net short 35,942 lots, -22,137 on the day (short covering)
- Soybean Meal top-20 seats net short 514,008 lots, -26,934 on the day (partial short exit)
- SHFE Nickel top-20 seats net short 17,124 lots, -4,096 on the day (short covering)
- Methanol top-20 seats net long 126,359 lots, -2,253 on the day (modest long cut)
6. Technicals & Trade Strategy
Best Trade Today
No trade idea meets the entry criteria today (stop-loss distance and risk-reward check); stay on the sidelines.
Precious metals break lower; watch key levels. SHFE Silver broke the 20-day low of 14,203 and accelerated to 13,525; failure to reclaim the 1,4000 integer level intraday opens downside to the 13,483 night session low. SHFE Gold weakened in tandem to 885.76, with the 881.82 night session low next; a recovery above 900 invalidates. Crude gave back to 729.5 in the night session but remains +4.42% over 5 days; SC holding above 725 keeps the firm bias, while a break below the 725 night session low turns it weak. In black metals, Coking Coal closed the night session at 1,477, -4.86% vs settlement, with momentum fading after +6.04% over 5 days — watch the 1,433 support; Rebar's 3,060 is the 20-day low, and a break opens further downside.
- SHFE Silver: watch 14,000 (above = bullish), invalidation 13,483 (break = acceleration)
- SHFE Gold: watch 900 (above = bullish), invalidation 881.82 (break = continuation)
- SC Crude: watch 725 (break = turn weak), resistance above at 759.90 (R1)
- Coking Coal JM: watch 1,477 (night session low), invalidation 1,433 (below 20-day S1)
- Rebar RB: watch 3,065.00 (S1), invalidation 3,060 (20-day low)
- HRC HC: watch 3,235 (20-day low), invalidation 3,223 (night session low)
7. Inter-Commodity Spreads
The spread structure reflects extremely compressed margins within the chemicals chain and diverging finished-steel margins in black metals. The CZCE PTA processing fee of CNY 236/t sits at the 13th percentile over the past 120 days (range 160–618), +16 on the day and -34 over 5 days; screen profits are in historically low territory, with firm PX capping TA margin expansion. The Rebar screen gross margin of CNY 995/t is at the 77th percentile (range 844–1,054), +8 on the day and -14 over 5 days — finished-steel margins are adequate but lack upward drivers. The coil-rebar spread of CNY 164/t is at the 2nd percentile (range 162–274), -1 on the day and +2 over 5 days; HRC carries almost no premium over Rebar, limiting HRC downside. The soybean-palm oil spread of -CNY 707/t is at the 90th percentile (range -1,340 to -603), -31 on the day and -98 over 5 days, with Palm Oil outperforming Soybean Oil. The oil-meal ratio of 2.676 is at the 18th percentile (range 2.58–2.892), +0.013 on the day and +0.015 over 5 days, with Soybean Oil underperforming Soybean Meal.
8. Risk Factors
1. US September core PPI and retail sales data beat expectations (20:30 Beijing time on 10-15); if core PPI exceeds 0.4% or retail sales exceed 1.1%, a stronger US dollar will pressure SHFE Gold below 880 and SHFE Silver below 13,400.
3. If China's fixed-asset investment, industrial production and retail sales data on October 19 come in well below expectations, the black complex (Rebar, Iron Ore, Coking Coal) may accelerate lower; a break of Rebar below the 3,060 daytime low and Iron Ore below 671 would open up further downside.
4. If the crude geopolitical premium fades (WTI below 93), cost support along the energy-chemicals polyester chain will loosen; SC could break the 725 night session low, and PTA processing margins may compress further to below CNY 160/t.
9. This Week's Watchlist
At 20:30 on October 15 (08:30 ET), the US will release September core PPI m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%), core retail sales m/m (consensus 0.6%, prior 1.4%), PPI m/m (consensus 0.6%, prior 0.4%) and retail sales m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 1.2%); all four prints beating their thresholds would significantly affect the USD-transmitted moves in SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver and the nonferrous complex. Fed Chair Warsh speaks on October 16 at 11:30 (23:30 ET on 10-15), affecting precious metals and base metals. On October 19 at 10:00 (22:00 ET on 10-18), a batch of data including fixed-asset investment ytd/y, industrial production y/y, retail sales y/y and GDP y/y will be released, affecting the black, nonferrous and chemicals complexes. On October 20 at 09:15 (21:15 ET on 10-19), the 1-year and 5-year LPR quotes (currently 3% and 3.5%) will influence the black and nonferrous complexes.
Yesterday's View Review
- SHFE.CU LONG entry 109900 stop 108400 target 112330 (1-5d, conv 5) → expired, closed P&L +1.07% exit 2026-10-14 | thesis: SHFE Copper settled at 109570; after breaking above R1 109890 we followed the trend, targeting the 20-day high of 112330; the 20-day still rose 0.42%, but watch for post-holiday inventory builds and weakness in the Asian early session of international markets.
- SHFE.RB LONG entry 3103 stop 3075 target 3165 (1-2w, conv 6) → stop-loss P&L -0.68% exit 2026-10-08 | thesis: Rebar settled at 3116; the top-20 seats saw net longs rise 12,783 lots on the day (both longs and shorts cut, with shorts cutting more), so we went long on a pullback near S1 3103, targeting 3165.
- Statistics (system-calculated): 2 views · limit triggers 1/1 (100%) · average MFE +0.59R (n=2) · average MAE 0.75R (n=2) · realized -0.11R (n=2)
No trade setups cleared for publication today.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.