1. Core Views
Precious metals and nonferrous metals fell in tandem, with SHFE Silver leading the market lower. A strong US dollar, combined with active long liquidation ahead of CPI, drove SHFE Silver to a daytime settlement of 13,688, down -5.34% versus the prior settlement, and SHFE Gold to a settlement of 889.74, down -0.74%. This translates into 20-day percentile positions of only 5.7% for silver and 15.1% for gold, indicating weak downside support in the near term. SHFE Silver broke below the 20-day low of 13,480 and accelerated lower; if it fails to reclaim 14,000, the next target is the night session low of 13,483, while SHFE Gold has downside toward 881.82. Crude oil slumped in the daytime session but stabilized in the night session, with geopolitical premium supporting petrochemical chain costs. SC settled at 725.2, down -4.51% in the daytime, but closed the night session at 726, up +0.11% versus settlement; WTI's overnight gain of +3.03% in international markets confirms the geopolitical premium remains intact. This translated into PX night session -1.87% while PTA night session was only -0.09%, a clear intra-chain rotation in relative strength; the PTA processing fee of CNY 212/t sits at the 8th percentile, leaving room for expansion. Black series divergence intensified, with Rebar approaching lower-bound support. Rebar settled at 3,066, down -0.16% in the daytime, with an open interest build of 29,013 lots despite a marginal price decline, translating into a 20-day range position of 15.8%, near the lower bound of 3,053; the Rebar–HRC spread of CNY 171/t at the 5th percentile limits downside for HRC. Coking Coal JM settled at 1,498, down -3.19%, leading the black complex lower, with Coke J settling at 1,973, down -2.47%, following suit.
2. Night Session & Overseas Recap
Overnight theme: precious metals and nonferrous metals stabilized and rebounded in the night session after heavy daytime losses, while crude's geopolitical premium supported the cost side. SHFE Silver closed the night session at 13,898, up +1.74% versus the daytime close and +1.53% versus settlement; SHFE Gold closed at 898.52, up +0.55% versus the daytime close and +0.99% versus settlement, reflecting partial short covering ahead of CPI. SC closed the night session at 726, up +0.11% versus settlement, while WTI's overnight international settlement of 97.97, up +3.03%, provided cost support. Rotation in relative strength within the petrochemical chain continued, with PX night session -1.87% versus PTA night session only -0.09%, sustaining the processing-fee expansion thesis. The black complex traded in a narrow range overnight: Rebar closed at 3,074, up +0.26% versus settlement; HRC closed at 3,243, up +0.22%; Iron Ore closed at 673, up +0.15%; Coking Coal closed at 1,492, down -0.4%, remaining soft.
- SHFE Silver night session close 13,898, +1.74% vs daytime close, +1.53% vs settlement
- SHFE Gold night session close 898.52, +0.55% vs daytime close, +0.99% vs settlement
- SC crude night session close 726, +1.85% vs daytime close, +0.11% vs settlement
- Rebar night session close 3,074, +0.1% vs daytime close, +0.26% vs settlement
- PX night session close 9,452, -1.36% vs daytime close, -1.87% vs settlement
3. Macro Landscape
US dollar strength and pre-CPI risk aversion weighed on precious metals and nonferrous metals. Fed Chair Warsh spoke at 11:30 Beijing time on 10-16; the sentiment-quantified US Dollar Index reading of 11.11 sits in a neutral zone, but the gold-silver ratio and copper-gold ratio diverged—SHFE Silver's 20-day move of -15.8% far exceeded SHFE Gold's -6.16%, with the lower gold-silver ratio reflecting relative silver weakness rather than gold overvaluation. Dollar strength combined with pre-long-holiday position cuts drove synchronized open interest build and price declines across precious metals and nonferrous metals; Copper main contract nominal open interest of CNY 102.95bn fell CNY 4.23bn on the day (longs exiting), while Aluminum main contract saw an open interest cut of 8,106 lots. China's dense data releases on October 19 put pressure on black and nonferrous metals. Key data including fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and GDP will be released on 10-19; sentiment quantification shows the BONDS sector at 50, extreme greed, suggesting policy easing expectations are already fully priced; if the data disappoints, the black complex faces gap-down risk. The 10-20 LPR quotes are expected to remain unchanged at 3% for the 1-year tenor and 3.5% for the 5-year tenor, with limited marginal impact on the black complex.
4. Inventories, Warrants & Basis
Warrant divergence was pronounced: destocking in precious metals and nonferrous metals, accumulation in select black and energy/chemical varieties. SHFE Silver warrants of 1,415,307 kg fell 45,656 kg on the day, -3.13%, consistent with tight spot supply and a strengthening basis; SHFE Copper warrants of 34,933 tonnes rose 11,476 tonnes, +48.92%, reflecting increased arrivals after the import window opened. Rebar and HRC warrants in the black complex were unchanged, while Coking Coal warrants of 1,377 lots rose 200 lots, +16.99%, reflecting deliverable supply entering warehouses. Glass warrants of 2,135 sheets fell 750 sheets, -26%, a notable drawdown; Soda Ash warrants of 3,563 sheets fell only 19 sheets, essentially flat.
| Variety | Warrant Quantity | Unit | Daily Change | Date |
|---|
| SHFE Silver | 1,415,307 | kg | -45,656 (-3.13%) | 2026-10-15 |
| SHFE Copper | 34,933 | tonnes | +11,476 (+48.92%) | 2026-10-15 |
| Coking Coal | 1,377 | lots | +200 (+16.99%) | 2026-10-15 |
| Glass | 2,135 | sheets | -750 (-26%) | 2026-10-15 |
| Rebar | 82,947 | tonnes | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-15 |
| HRC | 239,440 | tonnes | 0 (+0%) | 2026-10-15 |
| PTA | 18,588 | sheets | +9,996 (+116.34%) | 2026-10-15 |
| Lithium Carbonate | 26,730 | lots | -1,731 (-6.08%) | 2026-10-15 |
5. Positioning & Fund Flows
Longs actively exited the nonferrous complex, while short builds dominated the black series. SHFE Copper main contract saw an open interest cut of 7,765 lots with price -1.86%, a decline driven by long liquidation; SHFE Aluminum saw an open interest cut of 8,106 lots and weakened in tandem. SHFE Nickel saw an open interest build of 11,567 lots with price -2.02%, indicating active short building. Palm Oil saw an open interest build of 24,970 lots with price -3.03%, a clear signature of active short pressure. Soybean Meal top-20 seats held net shorts of 496,709 lots, narrowing by 17,299 lots versus the prior day, suggesting profit-taking by shorts.
- SHFE Nickel main contract open interest build of 11,567 lots, price -2.02%, active short build
- Palm Oil main contract open interest build of 24,970 lots, price -3.03%, active short build
- Soybean Meal top-20 seats net shorts narrowed by 17,299 lots to 496,709 lots
- SHFE Copper main contract open interest cut of 7,765 lots, nominal open interest down CNY 4.23bn on the day
- Coking Coal top-20 seats net longs expanded by 4,807 lots to 26,341 lots
6. Technicals & Trade Strategy
Best Trade Today
Rebar Continuous (SHFE.RB) Long · Entry 3,065 (limit) · Stop-loss 3,030 · Target 3,110 · Risk/Reward 1:1.3 · Horizon 1-5d · Conviction 5/10
- Rationale: Rebar closed the daytime session at 3,071, at the 15.8th percentile of the 20-day range; open interest built with a marginal price decline but near lower-bound support, and the Rebar–HRC spread of CNY 171/t at the 5th percentile limits HRC downside.
- Invalidation: if the October 19 economic data disappoints, the black complex faces gap-down risk; a break below 3,030 opens downside toward 3,000.
SHFE Silver broke below the 20-day low of 13,480 and accelerated lower, with a technical breakdown pattern. SHFE Silver's 20-day position is only at the 5.7th percentile, with ATR14 at 485.79 (3.56%); the volatility expansion signals short dominance. Although the night session close of 13,898 rebounded +1.74%, it failed to reclaim the key 14,000 level; if pressure persists, the downside target is the night session low of 13,483. SHFE Gold's 20-day position is at the 15.1st percentile; the night session close of 898.52 was +0.99% versus settlement, with 900 overhead as the bull-bear watershed—a reclaim would mark a halt to the decline. Rebar's 20-day position of 15.8% is near the lower bound of 3,053; the night session close of 3,074 reclaimed the 3,065 pivot, suggesting near-term stabilization.
- SHFE Silver: 20-day range 1,3480–16,628, position 5.7%; accelerated lower after breaking 1,3480; night session rebound to 13,898 but failed to reclaim 14,000
- SHFE Gold: 20-day range 881.82–959.6, position 15.1%; night session close 898.52; reclaiming 900 would halt the decline
- Rebar: 20-day range 3,053–3,167, position 15.8%; night session close 3,074 reclaimed the 3,065 pivot, near lower-bound support
- Crude: 20-day range 674.7–910, position 16.2%; night session close 726 reclaimed the 725.8 pivot; SC stabilized in the night session
7. Inter-Commodity Spreads
The spread structure reflects diverging industry margins: steel product margins remain decent, polyester chain processing fees are extremely compressed, and the soybean–palm oil spread has hit a historical extreme. Rebar gross margin of CNY 1,010/t sits at the 84th percentile, indicating relatively healthy steel margins but insufficient upside momentum; PTA processing fee of CNY 212/t is at the 8th percentile and extremely compressed, leaving room for fee expansion after PX weakened in the night session; the soybean–palm oil spread of -CNY 592/t is at the 100th percentile, a historical extreme, with palm oil extremely strong relative to soybean oil.
- PTA processing fee CNY 212/t, daily change -24, 5-day -54, 120-day percentile 8% (range 160–618)
- Rebar gross margin CNY 1,010/t, daily change +16, 5-day +18, 120-day percentile 84% (range 844–1,054)
- HRC–Rebar spread CNY 171/t, daily change +7, 5-day -10, 120-day percentile 5% (range 162–274)
- Soybean–palm oil spread -CNY 592/t, daily change +115, 5-day +11, 120-day percentile 100% (range -1,340 to -592)
- Oil-to-meal ratio 2.67, daily change -0.006, 5-day +0.024, 120-day percentile 18% (range 2.58–2.892)
8. Risk Factors
The dense 10-19 data release is the biggest tail risk, with black series and nonferrous metals facing gap risk. On 10-19, key data including fixed-asset investment, industrial production, retail sales and GDP will be released; the BONDS sector sentiment at 50 (extreme greed) suggests policy easing expectations are already fully priced, and if the data disappoints, Rebar's 3,053 lower bound and Iron Ore's 667 support will be tested. The 10-16 Fed Chair Warsh speech will influence the dollar path; a hawkish tone would intensify precious metals downside, while a dovish tone would trigger short covering. The 10-20 LPR fixing is expected to hold at 3% and 3.5%; an unexpected cut would lift black series valuations.
- 10-19 data risk: fixed-asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, GDP; if below expectations, black series gaps lower
- 10-16 Fed speech: hawkish tone intensifies precious metals downside, dovish tone triggers short covering
- 10-20 LPR: expectations are 1-year 3%, 5-year 3.5%; an unexpected cut boosts the black series
9. This Week's Watchlist
10-16 11:30 Fed Chair Warsh speech (Beijing time), affecting SHFE Gold, SHFE Silver and nonferrous metals. Watch for guidance on the dollar and rate path; SHFE Silver's 20-day -15.8% is already deeply oversold, so a hawkish speech would intensify precious metals downside, while a dovish speech would trigger short-covering rebounds.
*10-19 10:00 fixed-asset investment and industrial production data, affecting black series, nonferrous metals and chemicals. If the data disappoints, Rebar's 3,053 lower bound and Iron Ore's 667 support will be tested.
10-20 09:15 LPR fixing and 09:30 GDP data, affecting black series, nonferrous metals and chemicals. The 1-year LPR is expected to hold at 3% and the 5-year at 3.5%; GDP y/y expectations and prior values are to be released. An unexpected LPR cut would lift black series valuations, while GDP below expectations would add to downside pressure.
Yesterday's View Review (2026-10-08)
- SHFE.CU LONG entry 109,900 stop 108,400 target 112,330 (1–5d, conv 5) → expired, closed P&L +1.07% exit 2026-10-14 | thesis: SHFE Copper settled at 109,570; trend-following after breaking R1 109,890, targeting the 20-day high of 112,330; the 20-day still rose 0.42%, but beware of post-holiday inventory build and weakness in the Asian early session of international markets.
- SHFE.RB LONG entry 3,103 stop 3,075 target 3,165 (1–2w, conv 6) → stop-loss P&L -0.68% exit 2026-10-08 | thesis: Rebar settled at 3,116; top-20 seats net longs rose 12,783 lots on the day (both longs and shorts cut, with shorts cutting more), so buy on pullbacks near S1 3,103, targeting 3,165.
- Statistics (system-calculated): 2 views · limit triggers 1/1 (100%) · average MFE +0.59R (n=2) · average MAE 0.75R (n=2) · realized -0.11R (n=2)
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.