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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Long: 20D pullback meets crowded longs | 2026-10-20

We are long COMEX December gold (GCZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below 4140.07 (NEXT S1). The call rests on three pillars. First, price has retraced only to 21.3% of the 20-day range (4091.2–4414.1) from the 4160.1 settle [10-19], holding well above the 4095 low of the 10-14 washout and the 4091.2 20-day low — a shallow pullback, not a trend break. Second, physical and ETF demand are still absorbing supply: COMEX registered inventory is flat at 14.82 Moz [10-15] with a 20-report change of -0.34 Moz, SHFE warrants are essentially unchanged at 116,910 kg [10-19], and GLD holdings rose 0.67% over 20 sessions to 34,048,991 oz [10-16]. Third, implied volatility is cheap: GVZ at 22.58 sits in the 12th percentile of the past year, only 4.4 vol points above RV20 of 18.2%, so upside optionality is not priced. The counterweight is positioning: managed-money net length is at the 90th percentile of its three-year range and has fallen for four straight weeks (-3,898 in the latest week), so the trade is crowded and vulnerable to a squeeze. A daily close below 4140.07 invalidates the long and targets 4120.03; above 4175.63 opens 4195.67.