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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Long: Inventory Drain vs Crowded Shorts | 2026-10-20

We are long COMEX December copper (HGZ26) with a bullish bias, invalidated by a daily close below 6.5255 (NEXT S1, from the 2026-10-19 ladder). The call rests on three pillars. First, physical tightness is visible across all three exchanges: LME warehouse stock fell to 225,425 MT as of 2026-10-16, down 29,675 MT over 20 reports, SHFE warrants dropped 976 MT to 35,410 MT as of 2026-10-19, and COMEX registered stock is down 5,400 short tons over 20 reports to 470,900 short tons as of 2026-10-15. Second, price has already discounted a 2.77% 20-day drawdown and sits at the 16th percentile of its 20-day channel, with the NEXT S1 pivot at 6.5255 holding on the 2026-10-19 session. Third, managed-money net length has been cut from 82,522 to 61,058 contracts over four weeks, reducing sell-side fuel. Risks: ATR14 is 0.1229 (1.87% of price, full daily range), the curve is in contango with a -5.39% roll yield, and the copper/gold ratio at the 95th 1-year percentile signals a pro-growth stance already partly priced. Asia trade on 2026-10-20 at 06:55 printed 6.5755, flat versus settle. A daily close below 6.5255 targets 6.4755; above 6.6285 opens 6.6815.