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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Short: Bearish below 3.0903, 2.9353 target | 2026-10-20

We are bearish on NYMEX natural gas (executable contract NGF27.NYM, rolled 2026-10-16): the market settled at 3.058 on 2026-10-19, down 1.86% on the session and 3.44% over five sessions, after failing under the 3.33–3.334 highs of 10-13/10-14 and breaking the 3.062 low of the completed 2026-10-12–10-16 week. The structure is a lower-high sequence (3.334, 3.323, 3.229, 3.184) with the 20-day channel at 2.912–3.395 and price at the 30.2% position, so the path of least resistance is toward the NEXT S2 pivot at 2.9353. Fundamentals are unhelpful: storage is heavy versus the five-year average, the curve is in steep contango (M1–M2 −0.27, −7.97%) with a roll yield of −95.69%, and managed money is net short 126,481 contracts, covering only 18,056 week-on-week — a slow grind, not capitulation. Seasonality (mean +9.62% over the next 20 sessions, 9 of 15 up years) is the main bull counterweight and the reason we size modestly. Our invalidation is a daily settle above the NEXT pivot 3.0903, with a full exit above R1 3.1517; a break below S1 2.9967 opens 2.9353, and below that the 20-day low 2.912. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday-labelled or prior-session settles.