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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 1253.5 settle, 3.1% of 20D range | 2026-10-20

Bearish: CBOT January soybeans (ZSX26.CBT) settled at 1253.5 on 2026-10-19, down 0.61% on the session, and the trend is deteriorating — 5D -2.66% and 20D -5.61% (settle), with price at only the 3rd percentile of the 20-day channel (1251–1331.
5). The invalidation is a daily settle back above the NEXT pivot P of 1256.5 (from the 2026-10-19 H/L/C ladder), which would neutralize the short; a daily settle below S1 1248 opens S2 1242.
5. Three reasons: first, the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) closed at 1261.25, -2.38% w/w, after failing at 1297.75, and the current week is unfinished with only one session printed. Second, realized volatility is compressed at RV20 12.4% against ATR14 18.88 (1.51% of price), so a break of the 1251 low carries an outsized move. Third, the crush margin at 2.628 USD/bu (2026-10-16) sits in the 69th 1Y and 90th 3Y percentile — strong processor demand is already priced and the term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14.5, -1.14%), a negative roll yield of -6.82% for longs. Seasonality (next 20 sessions: mean +1.74%, median +1.83%, up 10 of 15 years) is the main counterweight and is why the stop sits above the pivot rather than at a round number. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday-labelled.