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データ基準日: 2026-10-19 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20-day low 656.25 broken, CBOT December ZWZ26 | 2026-10-20

Bearish CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26): the 2026-10-19 settle at 655.25 broke below the prior 20-day low of 656.25, confirming the 20-day downtrend (-9.84%) and leaving price at the 2nd percentile of its 654-729.5 range. The break is supported by a full contango term structure (M1-M2 -14.5, -2.15%, roll yield -8.59%) that signals ample nearby supply and penalizes longs, and by seasonality that is negative over the next 20 sessions (mean -1.46%, median -3.1%, up only 4 of 15 years). The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-12 to 2026-10-16) closed at 660.5, down 1.56% w/w, so the weekly trend was already negative before this break. The bias stays short while price holds below the NEXT pivot P 658.58; a daily close back above 663.17 (NEXT R1) invalidates the call and targets 671.08 (NEXT R2). Downside, a daily close below S1 650.67 targets S2 646.08. Intraday on 2026-10-20 no Asia print was captured, so no report-date level is quoted; all levels are settle-based. Key risk: realized vol is compressed at RV20 19.4%, so a supply-side headline could snap the move quickly - size accordingly.