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データ基準日: 2026-10-21 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | Long: Asia break above pivot R1, tight balances | 2026-10-23

We are bullish Brent (BZZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily settle below 107.24 (NEXT pivot S1). The prior session settled at 108.82 [settle 10-21], up 2.6% over five sessions and 10.91% over twenty, placing price at the 81.3 percentile of the 20-day channel (95.14–111.97). In early Asian trade on 2026-10-23 (06:45), Brent printed 112.8, up 3.66% versus settle, clearing the NEXT R1 pivot at 110.86 and approaching R2 at 112.89 — an intraday observation, not a settlement. Fundamentals corroborate: EIA crude stocks of 412,517 kb (2026-10-16) sit 3.3% below the five-year same-week average with a four-week cumulative draw of 13,881 kb, gasoline is 5.0% below, and the curve is in backwardation (M1–M2 3.75, 3.57%) with a 42.83% roll yield — prompt tightness, not a contango carry drag. Implied volatility (OVX 55.64, 58th percentile) exceeds realized RV20 of 30.5%, so options are paying for event risk into the 10-31 CNY PMI. Seasonality is a headwind (next 20 sessions: mean -3.01%, up 5 of 15 years), which is why the stop sits below the pivot rather than at a round number. A daily settle above 112.89 extends toward 114.92; failure to hold 107.24 negates the call.